Assessment of the predictive effect of schistosomiasis transmission risk along the Yangtze River in Hubei，China after the flood disaster in 2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To assess the schistosomiasis transmission risk after flood disaster in Hubei Province in 2021, so as to provide a scientific basis for schistosomiasis prevention and control in corresponding areas. Methods The data pertaining to the endemic situation of schistosomiasis were collected from Hubei, including oncomelania snail distribution, and humans and livestock schistosomiasis infection. The warning water level and actual water situation were collected in corresponding water areas. The cumulative numbers of S. japonicum egg-positive people and cattle from 2014 to 2020, the distribution area of oncomelania snail in 2020, and the water levels from May 1 to August 31, 2021, were estimated and employed as parameters for classification of schistosomiasis transmission risk. The cumulative value of each risk index was calculated in each epidemic county (city and district) to comprehensively assess the risk of schistosomiasis transmission after flood disaster in each region. Results After the flood disaster in Hubei province in 2021, there were 2 counties (districts) at high risk of schistosomiasis transmission in Hubei based on the single risk index of fecal positive number. Based on comprehensive risk indices, there were 2 counties identified at grade 4 risk of schistosomiasis transmission. Conclusion After the flood in 2021, schistosomiasis in Hubei Province is mainly at low and medium epidemic risk. Xiantao City and Hanchuan City in Hanjiang River Basin are the two most seriously affected schistosomiasis epidemic cities. Flood disasters can increase the risk of schistosomiasis transmission and epidemic, so the monitoring and control of schistosomiasis after flood should be strengthened to control the disease transmission to the maximum extent.