A predictive model based on CT characteristics for predicting infected walled-off necrosis in acute pancreatitis / 中华胰腺病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To develop and verify a predictive model based on CT characteristics for predicting infected walled-off necrosis (IWON) in MSAP and SAP patients.Methods:The clinical and CT data of 1 322 patients diagnosed as MSAP and SAP according to the 2012 Atlanta revised diagnostic criteria in the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from January 2015 to December 2020 were continuously collected. Finally, 126 patients who underwent enhanced CT scans within 3 days after admission and percutaneous catheter drainage of WON during hospitalization were enrolled. Among them, there were 63 MSAP and 63 SAP patients. According to the results of the culture from drainage fluid, the patients were divided into sterile walled-off necrosis group (SWON group, n=31) and infected walled-off necrosis group (IWON group, n=95). Patients were divided into training set (18 patients with SWON and 74 patients with IWON from January 2015 to December 2018) and validation set (13 patients with SWON and 21 patients with IWON from January 2019 to December 2020). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to establish a model for predicting IWON. The model was visualized as a nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn. The predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy, and the clinical application value was judged by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results:Univariate regression analysis showed that age, etiology, WON with bubble sign and the lowest CT value of WON were significantly associated with IWON. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age, biliary acute pancreatitis, WON with bubble sign, and the greater minimum CT value of WON were independent predictors for IWON. The formula for the prediction model was 0.12+ 0.01 age-0.75 hyperlipidemia-1.62 alcoholic-2.62 other causes+ 19.18 WON bubble sign+ 0.10 minimum CT value of WON. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the model were 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.94), 67.57%, 88.89%, and 71.74% in the training set and 0.78(95% CI0.62-0.94), 66.67%, 84.62%, and 73.53% in the validation set, respectively. The decision analysis curve showed that when the nomogram differentiated IWON from SWON at a rate greater than 0.38, using the nomogram could benefit the patients. Conclusions:The prediction model established based on CT characteristics might non-invasively and accurately predict the presence or absence of IWON in MSAP and SAP patients, and provide a basis for guiding treatment and evaluating prognosis.