A nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation in patients with acute ischemic stroke after endovascular treatment based on 4-dimensional CT angiography factors / 中华放射学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To assess the value of 4-dimensional CT angiography (4D CTA) to predict hemorrhagic transformation (HT) with a new nomogram model in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients after endovascular treatment (EVT).Methods:Imaging and clinical data of 101 AIS patients with internal carotid artery and/or middle cerebral artery occlusion who underwent "one-stop" CTA-CT perfusion and EVT in green channel of Beijing Hospital from March 2016 to November 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into HT group (45 patients) and non-HT group (56 patients). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to select relevant clinical and imaging variables, such as age, initial National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score, 4D CTA collateral circulation score, Alberta stroke program early CT score (ASPECTS), clot burden score, and a predictive nomogram model were developed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the efficacy of predictive nomogram model for diagnosing HT.Results:Univariate analysis showed that there were significant difference of age[79.00(68.00, 85.00) years, 73.00(62.75, 80.00) years, Z=-2.20, P=0.028], NIHSS score [16.00(12.00, 21.00), 9.50(6.00, 14.00), Z=-4.44, P<0.001], ASPECTS score [5.00(3.00, 8.00), 8.00(7.00, 9.00), Z=-4.23, P<0.001], 4D CTA collateral circulation score [2.00(0, 3.00), 3.00(3.00, 4.00), Z=-5.39, P<0.001], clot burden score [4.00(1.00, 7.00), 7.50(6.00, 9.00), Z=-3.42, P=0.001], location of the occlusion(internal carotid artery/middle cerebral artery occlusion was 23/22, 11/45 cases, χ2=9.70, P=0.002), and atrial fibrillation (27 and 19 cases respectively, χ2=5.83, P=0.016) between HT group and non-HT group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ASPECTS score (OR=0.64, 95%CI 0.47-0.87), NIHSS score (OR=1.13, 95%CI 1.01-1.26), 4D CTA collateral circulation score (OR=0.40,95%CI 0.22-0.76) were independent predictors of HT in AIS patients ( P<0.05). The AUC of the nomogram based on the ASPECTS score, NIHSS score and 4D CTA collateral circulation score to predict HT of AIS patients was 0.876 (95%CI 0.807-0.945), with a sensitivity of 77.8% and specificity of 87.5%. Conclusions:Patients with low ASPECTS score, high NIHSS score and low 4D CTA collateral circulation score have a higher risk of HT after EVT. The nomogram model may predict the probability of HT of AIS patients and provide effective assistance for clinical decision-making.