A nomogram for predicting postoperative pulmonary infec-tion in gastric cancer patients / 中国现代普通外科进展

ABSTRACT

Objective:To identifying risk factors of postoperative pulmonary infection(POI)in gastric cancer(GC)patients as well as generating an effective nomogram for the POI.Methods:Pa-tients with gastric cancer after surgery from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2020 were retro-spectively analysed.Their clinical and pathological data were collected.Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for POI and to generate the nomogram prediction model.Predictive accuracy,discriminatory capability,and clinical usefulness were evaluated by cali-bration curves,concordance index(C-index),and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:Multivari-ate regression analysis revealed that age,smoking,chronic respiratory diseases,laparoscopic surgery,intraoperative blood loss and lung function exercise compliance were independent prognos-tic factors for POI in GC patients.The nomogram had a Cindex of 0.878(95％CI:0.801～0.956).The calibration curves showed good consistency between actual and nomogram-predicted probabilities.The area under the curve(AUC)was 0.878,while the cutoff value was-2.088 with a sensitivity of 80.6％and a specifificity of 82.9％.DCA showed that the nomogram had better clinical usefulness.Conclusions:The present study provides a nomogram developed with perioperative features to predict the incidence of POI in GC patients.