A multicenter study of R-ISS staging combined with frailty biomarkers to predict the prognosis and early death in newly diagnosed elderly multiple myeloma patients / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To improve the prognosis stratification, especially early mortality(EM), of elderly patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM).Methods:In this retrospective study, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were conducted to identify the independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival(OS)and the chi-square test and multivariate Logistic analysis were used to identify the prognostic factors associated with EM in 223 elderly patients(age≥65 years)with NDMM from three centers in the country.Results:Increased NT-pro-BNP(≥300 pg/ml), ECOG-PS≥2 and stage Ⅲ R-ISS were identified as three independent adverse prognostic factors of OS.The rates of EM3, EM6, EM12 and EM24 were 12.1%, 20.1%, 32.2% and 60%, respectively.The most common cause for EM6(particularly EM3)was disease-related complications resulting from ineligibility for treatment due to poor physical performance, severe organ dysfunction or treatment discontinuation due to treatment intolerance, while the most common cause for EM12(particularly EM24)was disease progression or relapse mainly as a result of inadequate treatment.R-ISS staging failed to predict EM, while decreased eGFR, ECOG-PS≥2, and increased NT-pro-BNP were able to estimate the risk of EM, with increased NT-pro-BNP as a common independent factor for EM12( P=0.03)and EM24( P=0.015). Conclusions:R-ISS staging, which primarily reflects MM biology, cannot predict EM.However, factors such as NT-pro-BNP, eGFR and ECOG-PS associated with frailty and impairment of organ functions can be used to estimate the risk of EM, among which NT-pro-BNP may be the most important independent factor for EM.Therefore, incorporation of these frailty-related biomarkers into R-ISS staging may be able to more precisely estimate the prognosis and particularly early death of elderly patients with NDMM.