Survival analysis of liver cancer in Shanghai:a population-based study from 2002 to 2013 / 肿瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the survival rates of patients with liver cancer in Shanghai from 2002 to 2013. Methods:Data on new cases and deaths of liver cancer patients withfollow-up information from 2002 to 2013 were obtained from the Population-Based Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System of the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Incidence and survival rates were stratified by year of diagnosis,gender,district,age-group and stage at diagnosis for analysis.Statistical indicators,such as case numbers,proportions,median age and mean age were calculated.The 1-to 5-year observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table method.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years old were estimated with the Elandt-Johnson model,and then cumulative expected survival rates were calculated using the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the 1-to 5-year relative survival rates were calculated. Results:A total of 49 455 new cases of liver cancer were diagnosed from 2002 to 2013 in Shanghai,including 35 115 males and 14 340 females.The ratio of males to females was 2.45:1.The proportions of stage Ⅰ,stage Ⅳ and stage unknown were 3.32％,13.93％and 69.13％,respectively.The median survival time of patients with liver cancer diagnosed from 2002 to 2013 was 0.77 years,the 5-year observed survival rate was 13.23％,and the 5-year relative survival rate was 14.47％.According to the 5-year observed survival rate and 5-year relative survival rate of the cases,both survival indicators were higher in urban areas than in suburban areas,higher in males than in females,higher in cases under 45 years of age than in those over 75 years of age,higher in cases diagnosed from 2011 to 2013 than those diagnosed from 2002 to 2004.Additionally,the survival rate of cases decreased with increasing stage at diagnosis. Conclusion:With the continuous improvement of the diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer in Shanghai,the survival rate of patients with liver cancer has shown a significant upward trend over time.However,compared with various malignant tumors such as gastric cancer and breast cancer,the improvement effect of liver cancer survival rate is still not significant.Additionally,a high proportion of cases with unknown clinical stage at the time of diagnosis and a low survival rate of stage Ⅳ cases were observed.This study provides a basis for the prevention and research of liver cancer.