Establishment and verification of a prognostic nomogram for survival of tongue squa-mous cell carcinoma patients who underwent cervical dissection / 北京大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

Objective:To evaluate the prognostic significance of inflammatory biomarkers,prognostic nutritional index and clinicopathological characteristics in tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC)patients who underwent cervical dissection.Methods:The retrospective cohort study consisted of 297 patients undergoing tumor resection for TSCC between January 2017 and July 2018.The study population was divided into the training set and validation set by 7:3 randomly.The peripheral blood indices of interest were preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio(LMR),platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR),systemic immune-inflammation index(SII),systemic inflammation score(SIS)and prognostic nutritional index(PNI).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate independent prognostic factors for overall survival(OS)and disease-specific survival(DSS).The nomogram's accuracy was internally validated using concordance index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,area under the curve(AUC),calibration plot and decision curve analysis.Results:According to the univariate Cox regression analysis,clinical TNM stage,clinical T category,clinical N category,differentiation grade,depth of invasion(DOI),tumor size and pre-treatment PNI were the prognostic factors of TSCC.Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that pre-treatment PNI,clinical N category,DOI and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for OS or DSS(P＜0.05).Positive neck nodal status(N≥1),PNI≤50.65 and DOI＞2.4 cm were associated with the poorer 5-year OS,while a positive neck nodal status(N≥1),PNI≤50.65 and tumor size＞3.4 cm were associated with poorer 5-year DSS.The concordance index of the nomograms based on independent prognostic factors was 0.708(95％CI,0.625-0.791)for OS and 0.717(95％CI,0.600-0.834)for DSS.The C-indexes for external validation of OS and DSS were 0.659(95％CI,0.550-0.767)and 0.780(95％CI,0.669-0.890),respectively.The 1-,3-and 5-year time-dependent ROC analyses(AUC=0.66,0.71 and 0.72,and AUC=0.68,0.77 and 0.79,respec-tively)of the nomogram for the OS and DSS pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model.The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted and actual observations of OS and DSS,while the decision curve confirmed its pronounced application value.Conclusion:Pre-treatment PNI,clinical N category,DOI and tumor size can potentially be used to predict OS and DSS of patients with TSCC.The prognostic nomogram based on these variables exhibited good accurary in predicting OS and DSS in patients with TSCC who underwent cervical dissection.They are effective tools for predicting sur-vival and helps to choose appropriate treatment strategies to improve the prognosis.