Risk Prediction of SBP in Patients with Primary Liver Cancer Complicated with Ascites / 昆明医科大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the influencing factors of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites and establish a prediction model.Methods A total of 292 patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites who were hospitalized for the first time in the Third People's Hospital of Kunming from January 2012 to December 2021 were selected as the study objects.General data,etiological indicators,serological indicators and complications of these subjects were collected.Then they were divided into the infection group(n = 114)and the control group(n = 178)according to whether spontaneous bacterial peritonitis(SBP)was complicated.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of SBP in patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites.Finally,ROC curves were constructed to more intuitively represent the individual and combined predictive value of these targets.Results Am-ong 292 hepatocellular carcinoma patients with ascites,there were 235 males(80.48%)and 57 females(19.52%),among which 114 patients with SBP were in the infection group and 178 patients without SBP were in the control group.The results of univariate analysis showed that compared with the control group,the levels of WBC,neutrophils,prothrombin time,total bilirubin,albumin,CD3,CD4,CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio,CD19 procalcitonin,serum amyloid A,hypersensitive C-reactive protein,sodium,chlorine,alcohol consumption,shock,hepatorenal syndrome,hepatic encephalopathy,massive ascites in the infection group had statistically significant difference(P<0.05).Multi-factor analysis revealed that CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio were protective factors for SBP in patients with liver cancer ascites,CD19,procalcitonin,serum amyloid A,and massive ascites were risk factors for SBP in patients with ascites.ROC curve construction showed that serum amyloid A,CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio,CD19,procalcitonin,massive ascites area under curve(AUC)of massive ascites were 0.724,0.637,0.653,0.820,0.705,0.686,respectively.Conclusion CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio,CD19,procalcitonin,serum amyloid A,and a large volume of ascites are significant factors contributing to the development of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis(SBP)in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma ascites.The predictive value of combination is substantial,demonstrating a level of accuracy in forecasting SBP occurrence