Analysis on the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis before and after the COVID-19 in Hotan , Xinjiang , from 2015 to 2021 / 安徽医科大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective @#To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture , before and after the epidemic , and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture . @*Methods @#The Hotan prefecture ’s pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021 . Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis , as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan , respectively. Furthermore , an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out. @*Results@#The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021 , the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased , with a turning point appearing in December 2018 . The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females , and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend . Among all age subgroups , those ≥60 age group had the highest incidence rate , with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease . A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021 , yet the trend was not statistically significant (P > 0. 05) .The turning points in the 19 - 59 age group and in those aged ≥60 were consistent with the overall trend . The results of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020 , dropping from 319. 28 per 100 000 in 2019 to 155 . 88 per 100 000 in 2021 , a decrease of 51 . 16% year-on-year , with a monthly average reduction of 0. 049 per 100 000 .@*Conclusion @# In 2018 ,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population ,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis . In the Hotan prefecture , the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis peaked in December 2018 and then started to decline . Under the impact of COVID-19 isolation measures in Xinjiang , the reported incidence rate showed a notable decrease starting in January 2020 . Reiterating preventive measures and remaining watchful for the possible appearance of latent tuberculosis patients is crucial as the pandemic fades .