Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China / 中华流行病学杂志
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
; (12): 863-866, 2004.
Article
Dans Zh
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-325015
Responsable en Bibliothèque :
WPRO
ABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To provide the fittest model for forecasting schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas by comparing the results of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive Model and Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) from 1990 to 2002.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Error sum of square of four statistical methods was compared and the fittest model was chosen.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Error sum of square of predicted schistosomiasis prevalence rates in Haokou village from 1994 to 2002 were 39.40, 39.86, 26.63, 22.54 respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>ARIMA model seemed to be the fittest one in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in Haokou village of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2002.</p>
Texte intégral:
1
Indice:
WPRIM
Sujet Principal:
Facteurs temps
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Schistosomiase artérioveineuse
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Chine
/
Méthodes épidémiologiques
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Épidémiologie
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Prévalence
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Modèles statistiques
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Appréciation des risques
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Prévision
Type d'étude:
Etiology_studies
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Prevalence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limites du sujet:
Animals
/
Humans
Pays comme sujet:
Asia
langue:
Zh
Texte intégral:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
Année:
2004
Type:
Article