Application of General Additive Model for Studying the Effects of Air Temperature on Population Mortality / 环境与健康杂志

ABSTRACT

Objectives To study the impacts of air temperature and the other weather factors on the daily mortality of the residents in cities for targeting the preventive measures to decrease the excess mortality induced by climate change.Methods The daily mortality and weather surveillance data were provided by Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Bureau respectively.The correlation between the weather factors(temperature,humidity,air pressure,rainfall,wind speed) and the daily mortality of residents in a county of Chongqing were analyzed by using the Poisson GAM of time series(increased by 1℃ for air temperate,decreased by 1% for relative humidity and one unit for air pollution index) adjusting for the secular trend,seasonal trend,short-term fluctuation and day of week.Results The excess mortality increased to 12% as the temperature increased 1℃.The excess mortality increased to 4% and 0.6% respectively as the relative humidity decreased 1% and the air pollution index increased one unit.Conclusion High temperature,with humidity and air pollution,will cause increased excess mortality of residents in this county