Value of interleukin-32 combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the value of interleukin-32 (IL-32) combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). MethodsA total of 92 patients with HBV-ACLF who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2015 to December 2018 were enrolled, and according to the follow-up results at 3 months after diagnosis, the patients were divided into survival group with 40 patients and death group with 52 patients. ELISA was used to measure the serum level of IL-32. Clinical data of the patients were collected, including age, sex, underlying diseases, major complications, white blood cell count (WBC), platelet count (PLT), hematocrit (HCT), total bilirubin (TBil), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (Alb), serum creatinine (SCr), prothrombin time (PT), international normalized ratio (INR), and HBV DNA. The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups; a Pearson correlation analysis was performed for IL-32 and other variables; a binary logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the independent risk factors for the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve(AUC) was used to evaluate the value of IL-32 combined with MELD score in predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The normal Z test was used for comparison of AUC. ResultsThere were significant differences between the two groups in HCT, PLT, TBil, SCr, PT, INR, HBV DNA, IL-32, and MELD score (all P＜0.05). IL-32 was positively correlated with TBil (r=0.952, P＜0.001) and MELD score (r=0850, P＜0.001). IL-32 (odds ratio ［OR］=1.137, 95% confidence interval ［CI］: 1040-1243, P=0.005) and MELD score (OR=1.055, 95% CI: 1.001-1.109, P=0.025) were independent risk factors for the death of HBV-ACLF patients. IL-32 combined with MELD score had the highest value in predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF (AUC=0.992, 95% CI: 0.981-1000), with a significantly higher AUC than IL-32 (0.992 vs 0.984, Z=2.265, P＜0.05) and MELD score (0.992 vs 0877, Z=3182, P＜0.05). ConclusionBoth IL-32 and MELD score can predict the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF, and the combination of these two indicators has a better predictive value.