Autoregressive spatial modeling of possible cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in the capital of Northeastern Brazil
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
; 54: e02232021, 2021. tab, graf
Article
em En
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1340823
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are a growing global health problem. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases in São Luís, Maranhão, from 2015 to 2016 and investigated the association between socio-environmental and economic factors and hotspots for mosquito proliferation.METHODS:
This was a socio-ecological study using data from the National Information System of Notifiable Diseases. The spatial units of analysis were census tracts. The incidence rates of the combined cases of the three diseases were calculated and smoothed using empirical local Bayes estimates. The spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate was measured using Local Moran's I and Global Moran's I. Multiple linear regression and spatial autoregressive models were fitted using the log of the smoothed disease incidence rate as the dependent variable and socio-environmental factors, demographics, and mosquito hotspots as independent variables.RESULTS:
The findings showed a significant spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate. The model that best fit the data was the spatial lag model, revealing a positive association between disease incidence and the proportion of households with surrounding garbage accumulation.CONCLUSIONS:
The distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases showed a significant spatial pattern, in which the high-risk areas for the three diseases were explained by the variable "garbage accumulated in the surrounding environment," demonstrating the need for an intersectoral approach for vector control and prevention that goes beyond health actions.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Índice:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Dengue
/
Febre de Chikungunya
/
Zika virus
/
Infecção por Zika virus
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Assunto da revista:
MEDICINA TROPICAL
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article