Probability and trend of premature death of four major chronic diseases in Linyi City in 2013-2021 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the mortality rate and probability of premature death caused by four major noninfectious chronic diseases (NCDs)in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021, and to provide data support for scientific formulation of chronic disease prevention and control strategy. Methods The mortality data of major chronic diseases in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed. The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and premature death probability were calculated. The annual percent change (APC) was adopted to analyze the temporal trend of mortality and probability of premature death. Results The average annual crude mortality of four major NCDs was 538.98/100,000, and the age-standardized mortality was 387.3/100,000. The crude mortality rate increased from 517.37/100 000 in 2013 to 563.13/100 000 in 2021 (APC=0.89％, P=0.01). The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 410.19/100,000 to 364.92/100,000 (APC=-1.8％, P=0.01). The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of four major NCDs in males were higher than those in females (P<0.05). The average annual probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs was 13.37%. The probability of premature death decreased from 14.49％ in 2013 to 12.32％ in 2021（APC=-2.1％, P=0.00）. From 2013 to 2021, the probability of premature death from malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases in Linyi City dropped from 6.14%, 7.47%, and 1.21% to 5.52%, 6.46%, and 0.5%, respectively (APCs were -1.2%, -2.1%, and -11.3%, respectively, and P values were 0.04, 0.00, and 0.00, respectively). The probability of premature death from diabetes remained stable. The probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs in males was higher than that in females (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death of the four major NCDs in Linyi has showed a downward trend during 2013-2021. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of diabetes in the next step.