Construction of unplanned offline prediction model for IHD two-stage citrate anticoagulation / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the risk factors of two-stage citrate anticoagulation in intermittent he-modialysis(IHD)and to establish an unplanned offline prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted to include 34 patients and 118 times of treatment with two-stage citrate anticoagulation for IHD in the hospital from January 2019 to February 2023.According to whether the treatment did not reach the treatment time due to the coagulation of the extracorporeal circulation pipeline,118 treatments were divid-ed into the planned units(n=111)and the unplanned units(n=7).Univariate and multivariate logistic re-gression analysis were used to analyze the risk factors of unplanned weaning,and a risk prediction model was established.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the predictive value of the regression model.Results Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences in hematocrit(HCT),platelet count(PLT),activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT),and treatment mode between the planned and unplanned units(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HCT and APTT were independent influencing factors for unplanned weaning(P<0.05).The HCT level was represented by A,the APTT level was represented by B,and the prediction model wasLogit(P)=1.304+ 0.206×A-0.378×B.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the prediction model was 0.912(95%CI0.825-0.995,P<0.001),the maximum Youden index was 0.782,the cut off value was 0.113,the sensitivity was 85.7%,and the specificity was 92.5%.Conclusion The prediction model established by multivariate logistic regression analy-sis can make a preliminary judgment on whether coagulation occurs in two-stage IHD treatment.