Construction and validation of Alignment Diagram model for risk of parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis in extremely/ultra-low birth weight infants / 中国小儿急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the high-risk factors for parenteral nutrition associated cholestasis（PNAC）in extremely/ultra-low birth weight infants，and establish a risk Alignment Diagram prediction model.Methods:We retrospectivly analyzed the clinical data of hospitalized extremely/ultra-low birth weight infants admitted to Neonatology Department at Quanzhou Children's Hospital from January 2019 to December 2020，using multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for the occurrence of PNAC.An Alignment Diagram model prediction model for PNAC was constructed by using R software，and the performance of the model was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves.Results:A total of 203 extremely/ultra-low birth weight infants were included，with a median gestational age of 29.14（28.00，30.86）weeks and a median birth weight of 1　170（1　000,1　300）g.Among them，26（12.81%）cases developed PNAC.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of parenteral nutrition（ OR=1.015 ，95% CI 1.003-1.034），the cumulative amount of glucose（ OR=1.014 ，95% CI 1.001-1.028），small for gestational age（ OR=3.455 ，95% CI 1.127-10.589），and neonatal sepsis（ OR=3.142 ，95% CI 1.039-9.503）were independent risk factors for PNAC（ P＜0.05）；The four independent risk factors mentioned above were introduced into R software to construct an Alignment Diagram model，the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.835（95% CI 0.842-0.731），and the results of the Hosmer Limeshow goodness of fit test show that：χ 2=5.34，degree of freedom=8， P=0.72.A calibration curve indicated good consistency between the predicted probability of the model and the actual occurrence rate，with good accuracy. Conclusion:The Alignment Diagram model constructed based on four independent risk factors of the duration of parenteral nutrition，glucose accumulation，small for gestational age infants，and neonatal sepsis exhibits high predictive ability，and is expected to provide an intuitive and convenient visualization tool for preventing or reducing the occurrence of PNAC in extremely/ultra-low birth weight infants