A new risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the era of endovascular procedures

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To propose a new, multivariable risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality in individuals underwent repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). METHODS: Four hundred eighty-five consecutive patients who underwent AAA repair from January 2000 to December 2010 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors, and a risk-scoring model was developed. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis identified three independent preoperative risk factors associated with mortality, and a risk-scoring model was created by assigning an equal value to each factor. The independent predictors were location of the AAA, rupture of AAA, and preoperative pulmonary dysfunction. The multivariable regression model demonstrated moderate discrimination (c statistic, 0.811) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.793). The observed mortality rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by our risk-scoring model. CONCLUSION: Our risk-scoring model has excellent ability to predict 30-day mortality after AAA repair, and awaits validation in further studies.