Risk prediction model of perinatal congenital heart disease / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Through analyzing the influencing factors of congenital heart disease (CHD), it is aimed to establish CHD risk prediction model in fetus, and simultaneously provide theoretical foundation for CHD prevention. One-factor logistic regression method was used to screen the significant factors regarding CHD, and to separately adopt multiple-factor non-conditional logistic regression method and decision tree to set up model prediction fetus CHD risk and to analyze the advantages and shortcomings. Correct classification rates turned to be 80.93% and 82.79% respectively among 215 'training samples' by the two methods and the rates were 85.45 % and 89.09% respectively among 55 'testing samples'. The alliance of logistic regression and decision tree can overcome influence by co-linearity to guarantee the accuracy and perfection, as well as promoting the predictive accuracy.