Analysis of risk factors for death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors associated with death among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods:A total of 217 COVID-19 patients admitted to Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan University from December 29, 2019 to January 31, 2020 were enrolled. The general conditions, clinical symptoms, comorbidities, laboratory test indicators and clinical outcomes of the COVID-19 patients were analyzed. According to prognosis, the COVID-19 patients were divided into the death group and the survival group, and the clinical manifestations and laboratory examination results of the two groups were compared by t test and chi-square test. The binary logistics regression model was used to analyze the risk factors related to death. Results:Among the 217 COVID-19 cases, 124 were males and 93 were females, as of March 4, 2020, 25 died and 192 survived, with the mortality of 11.5%. Eighty-nine patients (41.0%) had confirmed history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market or had close contact with another patient with confirmed COVID-19. Among the patients who died, 21(84.0%) were male, 21(84.0%) had comorbidities, 15(60.0%) had more than three types of clinical symptoms, 14(56.0%) had alaine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase>1.5 upper limit of normal (ULN), 13(52.0%) had creatinine (Cr) >104 μmol/L, and 18(72.0%) had procalcitonin (PCT) >0.05 μg/L, whereas the above indicators among the survival patients were 103(53.6%), 95(49.5%), 92(47.9%), 23(12.0%), 14(7.3%) and 47(24.5%), respectively. The differences of the above indicators between the two groups were all statistically significant ( χ2=11.506, 7.889, 14.897, 30.307, 40.585 and 23.807, respectively, all P<0.01). The multivariate analysis results showed that age≥65 years old (odds ratio ( OR)=5.968, 95% confidence interval ( CI)1.991-17.888, P=0.001), male ( OR=6.009, 95% CI 2.504-14.422, P<0.01), comorbidities ( OR=7.152, 95% CI 2.058-24.851, P=0.002), having more than three types of clinical symptoms ( OR=7.944, 95% CI 2.280-27.676, P=0.001), alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase>1.5×ULN ( OR=9.552, 95% CI 3.760-24.269, P<0.01), Cr>104 μmol/L ( OR=11.458, 95% CI 4.289-30.613, P<0.01), lactic acid dehydrogenase (LDH)>243 U/L ( OR=7.591, 95% CI 1.683-34.249, P=0.008) and PCT>0.05 μg/L( OR=12.410, 95% CI 4.433-34.744, P<0.01) were risk factors for death among COVID-19 infection patients. Conclusion:For elderly male COVID-19 patients with comorbidities, impaired liver and kidney functions, elevated LDH and PCT are early warning signs for disease deterioration.