Mosquito density monitoring data by ARIMA model / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To forecast the trend of mosquito density index in Pudong New Area, Shanghai so as to provide evidence for disease control and risk-control measures for vector-borne diseases. Methods Mosquito monitoring data was collected in Pudong New Area between 2011 and 2015 at the city-level monitoring sites for analysis on the trend of the mosquito density index in Pudong New Area of Shanghai by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Results From 2011 to 2015, a total of 135 times labor-hour monitoring were carried out at the city-level monitoring points in Pudong New Area.The mosquito density index averaged 6.17/labor-hour with a standard deviation at 4.93, S=[0, 18]/labor-hour.Using ARIMA to analyze the change trend of mosquito density index in Pudong New Area, ARIMA(2, 0, 1)became the final fitting model, with R2=0.808.In the model, the Ljung-Box Q test value was 19.632(AR1=1.866, AR2=-0.907), and MA parameter was 0.999. Conclusion ARIMA model can be used to predict mosquito density monitoring data, but low monitoring frequency and irregular cycle length will affect the prediction results.