Analysis of the clinical factors related to fibrosis after pediatric liver transplantation / 中华器官移植杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the clinicalfactors related to allograft fibrosis after pediatric liver transplantation.Methods:The clinical data were respectively analyzed for 94 pediatric recipients from January 2013 to December 2016 at Tianjin First Central Hospital.The Patients were assigned into fibrotic and non-fibrotic groups based upon the results of protocol liver biopsies. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed for examining the risk factors of fibrosis after pediatric livertransplantation. Then Logistic regression model was established to obtain the predicted value of combined predictive factors.Thereceiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was conducted to evaluate the predictive value of combined predictive factors.Results:A total number of 54(57.5%) patients occurred fibrosis among the 94 patients. There weresignificant differences in cold ischemia time (Z=2.094), warm ischemia time (Z=2.421), biliary stricture( χ2=4.560), drug-induced liver injury ( χ2=7.389), hepatic artery thrombosis and rejection ( χ2=6.955)between two groups ( P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that cold ischemia time (OR=1.003, 95%CI: 1.000~1.007, P=0.044), biliary stricture(OR=6.451, 95%CI: 1.205~33.295), rejection(OR=2.735, 95%CI: 1.057~7.077)and drug-induced liver injury (OR=4.977, 95%CI: 1.207~20.522, P=0.026) were independent risk factors for fibrosis 5 years after liver transplantation. The area under the ROC curve was 0.786(95%CI: 0.691~0.881), for predicting patient outcome.If using 0.311as a cutoff Value, the sensitivity was 90.70%, and the specificity was 60.00%. However, through the ROC curve comparison, there was statistical significance between combined predictive factors and the other independent risk factors ( P>0.05). Conclusions:The incidence of fibrosis 5 years after pediatricliver transplantation is 57.5%. Prolonged cold ischemia time, biliarystricture, rejectionand drug-induced liver injury after liver transplantation are independent risk factors for fibrosis 5 years after pediatric liver transplantation.And the combined predictive factors have a high predictive value forallograftfibrosis.