Risk factors relating to lymphatic leakage and prediction scoring model after radical gastrectomy for gastric carcinoma / 中华普通外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the risk factors of lymphatic fistula after radical gastric cancer operation.Methods:We retrospectively analyze the clinicopathological data of gastric cancer patients who underwent radical surgery from May, 2019 to May, 2020 at the Third Department of Surgery, Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, and analyze the risk factors impacting postoperative lymphatic leakage,for the establishment of the risk prediction scoring model.Results:A total of 487 patients with gastric cancer underwent radical gastrectomy, of which 32 patients (6.6%) had lymphatic leakage . Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypoproteinemia before surgery (95% CI: 1.222-7.357, P=0.016), the lesion is located in the cardia-fundus of the stomach (95% CI: 1.117-6.788, P=0.028),stage T3-T4 (95% CI: 1.149-25.676, P=0.033), operation time ≥4 h (95% CI: 1.469-11.480, P=0.007), combined organ resection (95% CI: 1.106-12.886, P=0.034), D2+ lymph node dissection (95% CI: 1.969-11.510, P=0.001), anemia (95% CI: 1.271-9.392, P=0.015) were an independent risk factors. Equation based on multi-factor Logistic regression: logit( P)=-9.624+1.098×X 1+1.013×X 2+1.692×X 3+1.413×X 4+1.328×X 5+1.560×X 6+1.240×X 7 was estaslished, using Hosmer. Lemeshow test detects the goodness of fit of the regression equation ( P=0.348). The area under the ROC curve was 0.856 (95% CI: 0.787-0.926, P<0.001); the probability of lymphatic leakage when scores ≥4 points was 14.1%, when scores <4 points ,the probability of leakage was 2.5%. Conclusion:A risk prediction scoring model for lymphatic leakage after radical gastrectomy, can identify patients with high risk after surgery