Study of triglyceride glucose index in predicting stroke in elderly hypertensive patients / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk of stroke in elderly hypertensive(HTN)patients with varying baseline triglyceride glucose(TYG)index, and to identify the risk factors associated with stroke in this population.Methods:This study was a prospective cohort study that included 459 elderly patients with hypertension who were admitted to Beijing Anzhen Hospital from January 2018 to January 2020.The patients were divided into four groups based on their quartile of TYG index: Q1 group(TYG index≤8.02, 114 cases), Q2 group(8.02<TYG ≤ 8.37, 115 cases), Q3 group(8.37<TYG≤8.85, 115 cases)and Q4 group(TYG>8.85, 115 cases). The study compared the baseline clinical data and incidence of stroke(hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke)after two years of follow-up among the four groups, and analyzed the risk factors of stroke using Cox regression analyses.Results:This study examined 459 elderly patients with hypertension, of which 251(54.7%)were male and 208(45.3%)were female, with an average age of(71.7 ± 6.2)years(65-79 years). The study found significant differences among the four groups in various factors( P<0.05 for all). The study followed up with patients for a median of 33 months, 55 cases were lost to follow-up.Out of the remaining patients, 10.9% experienced stroke, with 3.7% being hemorrhagic stroke and 7.2% being ischemic stroke.The occurrence of stroke was observed in 5.3%, 8.7%, 13.0%, and 16.2% of patients in the Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 groups, respectively.The results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that the risk of stroke increased gradually as the quartile increased.Specifically, compared to the Q1 group, the risk of stroke increased by 1.016 times(95% CI: 0.933-1.106, P=0.715), 1.264 times(95% CI: 1.067-1.497, P=0.007), and 1.472 times(95% CI: 1.119-1.936, P=0.006)in the Q2, Q3, and Q4 groups, respectively.Notably, both Q3 and Q4 groups showed a significant increase in the risk of ischemic stroke( HR=1.313, 95% CI: 1.016-1.697, P=0.037; HR=1.509, 95% CI: 1.113-2.046, P=0.008), while the Q4 group showed a significant increase in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke( HR=1.132, 95% CI: 1.021-1.255, P=0.019). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that male( HR=1.336), smoking history( HR=1.485), hyperlipidemia( HR=1.216), previous stroke( HR=1.547), sleep apnea( HR=1.484), diastolic blood pressure( HR=1.114), hemoglobin( HR=0.962), albumin/creatinine ratio( HR=1.318), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol( HR=1.125), TYG index( HR=1.293), left ventricular mass index( HR=1.103), and anti-platelet therapy( HR=0.874)were all found to be independent risk factors for stroke. Conclusions:In elderly patients with hypertension, there is a significant positive correlation between TYG index and stroke risk, particularly ischemic stroke.This suggests that TYG index could be clinically valuable in improving cerebrovascular risk stratification.