Establishment of a Chinese neonatal model of early-onset sepsis based on the Kaiser Permanente sepsis risk calculator / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To construct a Chinese neonatal model of early-onset sepsis (EOS) using the Kaiser Permanente sepsis risk calculator and laboratory indicators and validate its clinical prediction potential.Methods:Newborns with a gestational age of ≥34 weeks, who were hospitalized in the Department of Neonatology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to June 2022 were retrospectively recruited.Their clinical data were collected.Predictors were screened via the multivariate regression analysis, and the Nomogram model was constructed using R software and RStudio software.Hosmer-Lemeshow test, receiver operating characteristic curve, the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the prediction potential of the Nomogram.Results:A total of 769 patients were enrolled, including 107 patients in the EOS group (5 culture-confirmed cases and 102 clinically diagnosed cases), and 662 cases in the non-EOS group.Ten variables were screened and introduced into the Nomogram, including the gestational age, birth weight, body temperature, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, premature rupture of membranes≥18 h, infection of Group B Streptococcus, ventilator application, and prenatal antibiotics.The predictive model showed good discrimination and consistency, with the area under the curve of 0.834 (95% CI: 0.771-0.896). The DCA of the prediction model showed that it was effective in clinical application within the effective threshold of 6%-95%, with a net benefit following the application of corresponding treatment measures. Conclusions:A Chinese neonatal model of EOS was created by using the Kaiser Permanente sepsis risk calculator and laboratory indicators, which has been validated effective.It provides references for clinical management and the guidance for the use of antibiotics.