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Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B
Article 在 En | WPRIM | ID: wpr-43201
Responsible library: WPRO
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/AIMS: This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in three other centers (n=1,071). The difference of HCC development among risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) categorized by risk score was also investigated. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 5 years were 11.2% and 8.9% in the testing and validation cohorts, respectively. HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir (HCC-RESCUE) is formulated as (age+15×gender [female=0 / male=1]+23×cirrhosis [absence=0 / presence=1]). The AUROCs at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. A significant difference of HCC development in each risk group was determined by the 5-year HCC risk score in the validation cohort (low risk group, 2.1%; intermediate risk group, 9.3%; high risk group, 41.2%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study presents a new risk score model with a good ability to predict HCC development and determine high risk patients for HCC development consisting of readily available clinical factors in treatment-naïve CHB patients receiving entecavir.
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全文: 1 索引: WPRIM 主要主题: Antiviral Agents / Incidence / ROC Curve / Cohort Studies / Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Risk Assessment / Hepatitis B, Chronic / Hepatitis, Chronic 研究类型: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies 限制: Humans 语言: En 期刊: Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 年: 2017 类型: Article
全文: 1 索引: WPRIM 主要主题: Antiviral Agents / Incidence / ROC Curve / Cohort Studies / Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Risk Assessment / Hepatitis B, Chronic / Hepatitis, Chronic 研究类型: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies 限制: Humans 语言: En 期刊: Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 年: 2017 类型: Article