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1.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 9849, 2021 05 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1223110

ABSTRACT

Several studies have examined the transmission dynamics of the novel COVID-19 disease in different parts of the world. Some have reported relationships with various environmental variables, suggesting that spread of the disease is enhanced in colder and drier climates. However, evidence is still scarce and mostly limited to a few countries, particularly from Asia. We examined the potential role of multiple environmental variables in COVID-19 infection rate [measured as mean relative infection rate = (number of infected inhabitants per week / total population) × 100.000) from February 23 to August 16, 2020 across 360 cities of Chile. Chile has a large climatic gradient (≈ 40º of latitude, ≈ 4000 m of altitude and 5 climatic zones, from desert to tundra), but all cities share their social behaviour patterns and regulations. Our results indicated that COVID-19 transmission in Chile was mostly related to three main climatic factors (minimum temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity). Transmission was greater in colder and drier cities and when atmospheric pressure was lower. The results of this study support some previous findings about the main climatic determinants of COVID-19 transmission, which may be useful for decision-making and management of the disease.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Environment , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Seasons , Altitude , Atmospheric Pressure , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Chile/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Temperature , Tundra
2.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 8358, 2021 04 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1189284

ABSTRACT

Climate seems to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but the findings of the studies performed so far are conflicting. To overcome these issues, we performed a global scale study considering 134,871 virologic-climatic-demographic data (209 countries, first 16 weeks of the pandemic). To analyze the relation among COVID-19, population density, and climate, a theoretical path diagram was hypothesized and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM), a powerful statistical technique for the evaluation of causal assumptions. The results of the analysis showed that both climate and population density significantly influence the spread of COVID-19 (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). Overall, climate outweighs population density (path coefficients: climate vs. incidence = 0.18, climate vs. prevalence = 0.11, population density vs. incidence = 0.04, population density vs. prevalence = 0.05). Among the climatic factors, irradiation plays the most relevant role, with a factor-loading of - 0.77, followed by temperature (- 0.56), humidity (0.52), precipitation (0.44), and pressure (0.073); for all p < 0.001. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that climatic factors significantly influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, demographic factors, together with other determinants, can affect the transmission, and their influence may overcome the protective effect of climate, where favourable.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Climate , Models, Theoretical , Atmospheric Pressure , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Humans , Humidity , Population Density , Prevalence , Rain , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Temperature
3.
J Infect Dev Ctries ; 15(2): 230-236, 2021 03 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1125225

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The spatiotemporal patterns of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is detected in the United States, which shows temperature difference (TD) with cumulative hysteresis effect significantly changes the daily new confirmed cases after eliminating the interference of population density. METHODOLOGY: The nonlinear feature of updated cases is captured through Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) with threshold points; Exposure-response curve suggests that daily confirmed cases is changed at the different stages of TD according to the threshold points of piecewise function, which traces out the rule of updated cases under different meteorological condition. RESULTS: Our results show that the confirmed cases decreased by 0.390% (95% CI: -0.478 ~ -0.302) for increasing each one degree of TD if TD is less than 11.5°C; It will increase by 0.302% (95% CI: 0.215 ~ 0.388) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) at the interval [11.5, 16]; Meanwhile the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases will increase by 0.321% (95% CI: 0.142 ~ 0.499) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) when the TD (lag0-4) is over 16°C, and the most fluctuation occurred on Sunday. The results of the sensitivity analysis confirmed our model robust. CONCLUSIONS: In US, this interval effect of TD reminds us that it is urgent to control the spread and infection of COVID-19 when TD becomes greater in autumn and the ongoing winter.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Nonlinear Dynamics , Atmospheric Pressure , Humans , Humidity , Meteorological Concepts , Population Density , Rain , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Temperature , United States/epidemiology , Wind
4.
Diabetes Metab Syndr ; 14(6): 1735-1742, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1059526

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Meteorological parameters play a major role in the transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. In this study, we aim to analyze the correlation between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in the financial capital of India, Mumbai. METHODS: In this research, we collected data from April 27 till July 25, 2020 (90 days). A Spearman rank correlation test along with two-tailed p test and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique have been used to predict the associations of COVID-19 with meteorological parameters. RESULTS: A significant correlation of COVID-19 was found with temperature (Tmin), dew point (DPmax), relative humidity (RHmax, RHavg, RHmin) and surface pressure (Pmax, Pavg, Pmin). The parameters which showed significant correlation were then taken for the modeling and prediction of COVID-19 infections using Artificial Neural Network technique. CONCLUSIONS: It was found that the relative humidity and pressure parameters had the most influencing effect out of all other significant parameters (obtained from Spearman's method) on the active number of COVID-19 cases. The finding in this study might be useful for the public, local authorities, and the Ministry of Health, Govt. of India to combat COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Meteorological Concepts , Atmospheric Pressure , Humans , Humidity , India/epidemiology , Neural Networks, Computer , SARS-CoV-2 , Temperature , Wind
5.
Undersea Hyperb Med ; 47(3): 405-413, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-762605

ABSTRACT

Objective: Given the high mortality and prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation of COVID-19 patients, we evaluated the safety and efficacy of hyperbaric oxygen for COVID-19 patients with respiratory distress. Methods: This is a single-center clinical trial of COVID-19 patients at NYU Winthrop Hospital from March 31 to April 28, 2020. Patients in this trial received hyperbaric oxygen therapy at 2.0 atmospheres of pressure in monoplace hyperbaric chambers for 90 minutes daily for a maximum of five total treatments. Controls were identified using propensity score matching among COVID-19 patients admitted during the same time period. Using competing-risks survival regression, we analyzed our primary outcome of inpatient mortality and secondary outcome of mechanical ventilation. Results: We treated 20 COVID-19 patients with hyperbaric oxygen. Ages ranged from 30 to 79 years with an oxygen requirement ranging from 2 to 15 liters on hospital days 0 to 14. Of these 20 patients, two (10%) were intubated and died, and none remain hospitalized. Among 60 propensity-matched controls based on age, sex, body mass index, coronary artery disease, troponin, D-dimer, hospital day, and oxygen requirement, 18 (30%) were intubated, 13 (22%) have died, and three (5%) remain hospitalized (with one still requiring mechanical ventilation). Assuming no further deaths among controls, we estimate that the adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios were 0.37 for inpatient mortality (p=0.14) and 0.26 for mechanical ventilation (p=0.046). Conclusion: Though limited by its study design, our results demonstrate the safety of hyperbaric oxygen among COVID-19 patients and strongly suggests the need for a well-designed, multicenter randomized control trial.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Hyperbaric Oxygenation/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Propensity Score , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/therapy , Adult , Aged , Atmospheric Pressure , COVID-19 , Case-Control Studies , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Female , Humans , Hyperbaric Oxygenation/adverse effects , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Respiration, Artificial/mortality , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/mortality , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Safety , Survival Analysis , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
6.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 3280, 2020 07 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-624975

ABSTRACT

The atmospheric pressure that decreases with altitude affects lung physiology. However, these changes in physiology are not usually considered in ventilator design and testing. We argue that high altitude human populations require special attention to access the international supply of ventilators.


Subject(s)
Altitude , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Equipment Design , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Ventilators, Mechanical/supply & distribution , Atmospheric Pressure , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Humans , Lung/physiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , SARS-CoV-2
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