The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. METHODS: We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020.

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns1. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns2. From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge5.

Lifting Universal Masking in Schools - Covid-19 Incidence among Students and Staff.

BACKGROUND: In February 2022, Massachusetts rescinded a statewide universal masking policy in public schools, and many Massachusetts school districts lifted masking requirements during the subsequent weeks. In the greater Boston area, only two school districts - the Boston and neighboring Chelsea districts - sustained masking requirements through June 2022. The staggered lifting of masking requirements provided an opportunity to examine the effect of universal masking policies on the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in schools. METHODS: We used a difference-in-differences analysis for staggered policy implementation to compare the incidence of Covid-19 among students and staff in school districts in the greater Boston area that lifted masking requirements with the incidence in districts that sustained masking requirements during the 2021-2022 school year. Characteristics of the school districts were also compared. RESULTS: Before the statewide masking policy was rescinded, trends in the incidence of Covid-19 were similar across school districts. During the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 cases per 1000 students and staff (95% confidence interval, 32.6 to 57.1), which corresponded to an estimated 11,901 cases and to 29.4% of the cases in all districts during that time. Districts that chose to sustain masking requirements longer tended to have school buildings that were older and in worse condition and to have more students per classroom than districts that chose to lift masking requirements earlier. In addition, these districts had higher percentages of low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and staff. Our results support universal masking as an important strategy for reducing Covid-19 incidence in schools and loss of in-person school days. As such, we believe that universal masking may be especially useful for mitigating effects of structural racism in schools, including potential deepening of educational inequities. CONCLUSIONS: Among school districts in the greater Boston area, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 Covid-19 cases per 1000 students and staff during the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded.

Monitoring the impact of COVID-19 in France on cancer care: a differentiated impact.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial and lasting impact on care provision, particularly in the field of cancer care. National steering has helped monitor the health situation and adapt the provision and organisation of care. Based on data from the French administrative healthcare database (SNDS) on the entire French population (67 million people), screening, diagnostic and therapeutic activity was monitored and compared 2019 on a monthly basis. A noteworthy decline in all activities (with the exception of chemotherapy) was observed during the first lockdown in France. Over the months that followed, this activity returned to normal but did not make up for the shortfall from the first lockdown. Finally, during the lockdown in late 2020, cancer care activity was conserved. In brief, in 2020, the number of mammograms decreased by 10% (- 492,500 procedures), digestive endoscopies by 19% (- 648,500), and cancer-related excision by 6% (- 23,000 surgical procedures). Hospital radiotherapy activity was down 3.8% (- 4400 patients) and that in private practice was down 1.4% (- 1600 patients). Chemotherapy activity increased by 2.2% (7200 patients), however. To summarize, COVID-19 had a very substantial impact during the first lockdown. Safeguarding cancer care activity helped limit this impact over the months that followed, but the situation remains uncertain. Further studies on the medium- and long-term impact on individuals (survival, recurrence, after-effects) will be conducted.

Use of Acute Mental Health Care in U.S. Children's Hospitals Before and After Statewide COVID-19 School Closure Orders.

Objective: This study aimed to examine changes in child emergency department (ED) discharges and hospitalizations for primary general medical (GM) and primary psychiatric disorders; prevalence of psychiatric disorders among acute care encounters; and change in acute mental health (MH) care encounters by disorder type and, within these categories, by child sociodemographic characteristics before and after statewide COVID-19­related school closure orders. Methods: This retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study used the Pediatric Health Information System database to assess percent changes in ED discharges and hospitalizations (N=2,658,474 total encounters) among children ages 3­17 years in 44 U.S. children's hospitals in 2020 compared with 2019, by using matched data for 36- and 12-calendar-week intervals. Results: Decline in MH ED discharges accounted for about half of the decline in ED discharges and hospitalizations for primary GM disorders (−24.8% vs. −49.1%), and MH hospitalizations declined 3.4 times less (−8.0% vs. −26.8%) in 2020. Suicide attempt or self-injury and depressive disorders accounted for >50% of acute MH care encounters before and after the statewide school closures. The increase in both ED discharges and hospitalizations for suicide attempt or self-injury was 5.1 percentage points (p<0.001). By fall 2020, MH hospitalizations for suicide attempt or self-injury rose by 41.7%, with a 43.8% and 49.2% rise among adolescents and girls, respectively. Conclusions: Suicide or self-injury and depressive disorders drove acute MH care encounters in 44 U.S. children's hospitals after COVID-19­related school closures. Research is needed to identify continuing risk indicators (e.g., sociodemographic characteristics, psychiatric disorder types, and social determinants of health) of acute child MH care.

Association Between Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 Public Health Measures and Reduction in Critical Care Utilization Across ICUs in Alberta, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has disrupted critical care services across the world. In anticipation of surges in the need for critical care services, governments implemented "lockdown" measures to preserve and create added critical care capacity. Herein, we describe the impact of lockdown measures on the utilization of critical care services and patient outcomes compared with nonlockdown epochs in a large integrated health region. DESIGN: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Seventeen adult ICUs across 14 acute care hospitals in Alberta, Canada. PATIENTS: All adult (age ≥ 15 yr) patients admitted to any study ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The main exposure was ICU admission during "lockdown" occurring between March 16, 2020, and June 30, 2020. This period was compared with two nonpandemic control periods: "year prior" (March 16, 2019, to June 30, 2019) and "pre lockdown" immediately prior (November 30, 2019, to March 15, 2020). The primary outcome was the number of ICU admissions. Secondary outcomes included the following: daily measures of ICU utilization, ICU duration of stay, avoidable delay in ICU discharge, and occupancy; and patient outcomes. Mixed multilevel negative binomial regression and interrupted time series regression were used to compare rates of ICU admissions between periods. Multivariable regressions were used to compare patient outcomes between periods. During the lockdown, there were 3,649 ICU admissions (34.1 [8.0] ICU admissions/d), compared with 4,125 (38.6 [9.3]) during the prelockdown period and 3,919 (36.6 [8.7]) during the year prior. Mean bed occupancy declined significantly during the lockdown compared with the nonpandemic periods (78.7%, 95.9%, and 96.4%; p < 0.001). Avoidable ICU discharge delay also decreased significantly (42.0%, 53.2%, and 58.3%; p < 0.001). During the lockdown, patients were younger, had fewer comorbid diseases, had higher acuity, and were more likely to be medical admissions compared with the nonpandemic periods. Adjusted ICU and hospital mortality and ICU and hospital lengths of stay were significantly lower during the lockdown compared with nonpandemic periods. CONCLUSIONS: The coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown resulted in substantial changes to ICU utilization, including a reduction in admissions, occupancy, patient lengths of stay, and mortality.

Exploring the awareness, attitudes, and actions (AAA) of UK adults at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: People at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19 have experienced greater restrictions during the pandemic, yet there is a paucity of research exploring their lived experience. OBJECTIVES: This study explored the impact of COVID-19 on people identified as at high risk of severe illness by UK Government, and in particular, the impact of the first lockdown on access to healthcare, medications and use of technological platforms. METHODS: 1038 UK adults who identified as at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19 in line with UK Government guidance or self-identified with acute or other chronic health conditions, completed the Awareness, Attitudes and Actions survey which explored the impact of COVID-19 on access to healthcare, management of long-term health condition, mental health, and health behaviours. RESULTS: Most participants reported feelings of vulnerability, anxiety and isolation, noticed that other people changed their behaviour towards them including a feeling of being stigmatised by people not categorised as high risk. Participants described the largely negative impact that the COVID-19 lockdown had on to health-related behaviours and access to healthcare, which had resulted in large declines in mental health and wellbeing. Participants also indicated disappointment at the UK Governments response and handling of the COVID-19 lockdown. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides novel evidence of the lived experience of the first COVID-19 lockdown for people identified as at high risk of severe illness. In the context of behavioural health interventions, the ubiquity of digital technologies and their adoption into day-to-day life translates into greater potential reach than traditional interventions, and consequently, greater potential for positive public health impact. Findings should be considered by policymakers and healthcare professionals to support people now and as we transition through the recovery phase with a particular emphasis on supporting mental health and changes to the management of long-term health conditions.

Three-Month Follow-up Study of Mental Health Outcomes After a National COVID-19 Lockdown: Comparing Patients With Mood or Anxiety Disorders Living in an Area With a Higher Versus Lower Infection Incidence.

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic and the related containment measures can represent a traumatic experience, particularly for populations living in high incidence areas and individuals with mental disorders. The aim of this study was to prospectively examine posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depressive symptoms since the end of the first COVID-19 pandemic wave and Italy's national lockdown in subjects with mood or anxiety disorders living in 2 regions with increasing pandemic incidence.Methods: 102 subjects with a DSM-5 anxiety or mood disorder were enrolled from June to July 2020 and assessed at baseline (T0) and after 3 months (T1) with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item, and Work and Social Adjustment Scale. At T1, subjects were also assessed by means of the Trauma and Loss Spectrum Self-Report for PTSD.Results: At T0, subjects from the high COVID-19 incidence area showed higher levels of traumatic symptoms than those from the low COVID-19 incidence area (P < .001), with a decrease at T1 with respect to T0 (P = .001). Full or partial DSM-5 PTSD related to the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in 23 subjects (53.5%) from the high COVID-19 incidence area and in 9 (18.0%) from the low COVID-19 incidence area (P < .001).Conclusions: Subjects with mood or anxiety disorders presented relevant rates of PTSD, depressive, and anxiety symptoms in the aftermath of the lockdown, and in most cases these persisted after 3 months. The level of exposure to the pandemic emerged as a major risk factor for PTSD development. Further long-term studies are needed to follow up the course of traumatic burden.

Global fine-scale changes in ambient NO2 during COVID-19 lockdowns.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an important contributor to air pollution and can adversely affect human health1-9. A decrease in NO2 concentrations has been reported as a result of lockdown measures to reduce the spread of COVID-1910-20. Questions remain, however, regarding the relationship of satellite-derived atmospheric column NO2 data with health-relevant ambient ground-level concentrations, and the representativeness of limited ground-based monitoring data for global assessment. Here we derive spatially resolved, global ground-level NO2 concentrations from NO2 column densities observed by the TROPOMI satellite instrument at sufficiently fine resolution (approximately one kilometre) to allow assessment of individual cities during COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 compared to 2019. We apply these estimates to quantify NO2 changes in more than 200 cities, including 65 cities without available ground monitoring, largely in lower-income regions. Mean country-level population-weighted NO2 concentrations are 29% ± 3% lower in countries with strict lockdown conditions than in those without. Relative to long-term trends, NO2 decreases during COVID-19 lockdowns exceed recent Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)-derived year-to-year decreases from emission controls, comparable to 15 ± 4 years of reductions globally. Our case studies indicate that the sensitivity of NO2 to lockdowns varies by country and emissions sector, demonstrating the critical need for spatially resolved observational information provided by these satellite-derived surface concentration estimates.

Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador.

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

Psychological well-being and worries among pregnant women in the first trimester during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark compared with a historical group: A hospital-based cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: A pandemic may negatively influence psychological well-being in the individual. We aimed to assess the potential influence of the first national lockdown in Denmark (March to June 2020) due to the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological well-being and the content and degree of worries among pregnant women in early pregnancy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this hospital-based cross-sectional study based on self-reported data we compared psychological well-being and worries among women who were pregnant during the first phase of the pandemic (COVID-19 group) (n = 685), with women who were pregnant the year before (Historical group) (n = 787). Psychological well-being was measured by the five-item World Health Organization Well-being Index (WHO-5), using a score ≤50 as indicator of reduced psychological well-being. Differences in WHO-5 mean scores and in the prevalence of women with score ≤50 were assessed using general linear and log-binomial regression analyses. The Cambridge Worry Scale was used to measure the content and degree of major worries. To detect differences between groups, Pearson's Chi-square test was used. RESULTS: We found no differences in mean WHO-5 score between groups (mean difference) 0.1 (95% CI -1.5 to 1.6) or in the prevalence of women with WHO-5 score ≤50 (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% CI 0.83-1.29) in adjusted analyses. A larger proportion of women in the COVID-19 group reported major worries about Relationship with husband/partner compared with the Historical group (3% [n = 19] vs 1% [n = 6], p = 0.04), and 9.2% in the COVID-19 group worried about the possible negative influence of the COVID-19 restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that national restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic did not influence the psychological well-being or the content and degree of major worries among pregnant women. However, a larger proportion of women in the COVID-19 group reported major worries concerning Relationship with husband/partner compared with the Historical group and 9.2% in the COVID-19 group worried about the possible negative influence of the COVID-19 restrictions.

The Impact of Strict Public Health Restrictions on Pediatric Critical Illness.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the impact of public health interventions on the volume and characteristics of admissions to the PICU. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Six U.S. referral PICUs during February 15, 2020-May 14, 2020, compared with the same months during 2017-2019 (baseline). PATIENTS: PICU admissions excluding admissions for illnesses due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and readmissions during the same hospitalization. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Primary outcome was admission volumes during the period of stay-at-home orders (March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020) compared with baseline. Secondary outcomes were hospitalization characteristics including advanced support (e.g., invasive mechanical ventilation), PICU and hospital lengths of stay, and mortality. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to compare patient and admission characteristics during the stay-at-home orders period to baseline. We evaluated 7,960 admissions including 1,327 during March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020. Daily admissions and patients days were lower during the period of stay-at-home orders compared with baseline: median admissions 21 (interquartile range, 17-25) versus 36 (interquartile range, 30-42) (p < 0.001) and median patient days 93.0 (interquartile range, 55.9-136.7) versus 143.6 (interquartile range, 108.5-189.2) (p < 0.001). Admissions during the period of stay-at-home orders were less common in young children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses and more common for poisonings, endocrinopathies and for children with race/ethnicity categorized as other/unspecified. There were no differences in hospitalization characteristics except fewer patients received noninvasive ventilation during the period of stay-at-home orders. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in PICU admissions suggest that much of pediatric critical illness in younger children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses may be preventable through targeted public health strategies.

An analysis of antibody responses and clinical sequalae of the Sinopharm HB02 COVID19 vaccine in dialysis patients in the United Arab Emirates.

AIM: To establish the responses to the Sinopharm HB02 COVID-19 vaccination in the dialysis population, which are not well established. We examined the humoral responses to the Sinopharm COVID vaccine in haemodialysis patients. METHODS: Standard vaccinations (two doses at interval of ~21 days) were given to all consenting haemodialysis patients on dialysis (n = 1296). We measured the antibody responses at 14-21 days after the second vaccine to define the development of anti-spike antibodies >15 AU/ml after vaccination and observed the clinical effects of vaccination. RESULTS: Vaccination was very well tolerated with few side-effects. In those who consented to antibody measurements, (n = 446) baseline sampling showed 77 had positive antibodies, yet received full vaccination without any apparent adverse events. Positive anti-spike antibodies developed in 50% of the 270 baseline negative patients who had full sampling, compared with 78.1% in the general population. COVID infection continues to occur in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, but in the whole group vaccination appears to have been associated with a reduction in the case fatality rate. CONCLUSION: The humoral immune responses to standard HB02 vaccination schedules are attenuated in a haemodialysis cohort, but likely the vaccine saves lives. We suggest that an enhanced HB02 vaccination course or antibody checking may be prudent to protect this vulnerable group of patients. We suggest a booster dose of this vaccine at 3 months should be given to all dialysis patients, on the grounds that it is well tolerated even in those with good antibody levels and there may be a survival advantage.

The Infectious Disease Ontology in the age of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Effective response to public health emergencies, such as we are now experiencing with COVID-19, requires data sharing across multiple disciplines and data systems. Ontologies offer a powerful data sharing tool, and this holds especially for those ontologies built on the design principles of the Open Biomedical Ontologies Foundry. These principles are exemplified by the Infectious Disease Ontology (IDO), a suite of interoperable ontology modules aiming to provide coverage of all aspects of the infectious disease domain. At its center is IDO Core, a disease- and pathogen-neutral ontology covering just those types of entities and relations that are relevant to infectious diseases generally. IDO Core is extended by disease and pathogen-specific ontology modules. RESULTS: To assist the integration and analysis of COVID-19 data, and viral infectious disease data more generally, we have recently developed three new IDO extensions: IDO Virus (VIDO); the Coronavirus Infectious Disease Ontology (CIDO); and an extension of CIDO focusing on COVID-19 (IDO-COVID-19). Reflecting the fact that viruses lack cellular parts, we have introduced into IDO Core the term acellular structure to cover viruses and other acellular entities studied by virologists. We now distinguish between infectious agents - organisms with an infectious disposition - and infectious structures - acellular structures with an infectious disposition. This in turn has led to various updates and refinements of IDO Core's content. We believe that our work on VIDO, CIDO, and IDO-COVID-19 can serve as a model for yielding greater conformance with ontology building best practices. CONCLUSIONS: IDO provides a simple recipe for building new pathogen-specific ontologies in a way that allows data about novel diseases to be easily compared, along multiple dimensions, with data represented by existing disease ontologies. The IDO strategy, moreover, supports ontology coordination, providing a powerful method of data integration and sharing that allows physicians, researchers, and public health organizations to respond rapidly and efficiently to current and future public health crises.

The impact of re-opening the international border on COVID-19 hospitalisations in Australia: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border. DESIGN: Population-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R0 = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re-opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day). SETTING: Simulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022. RESULTS: In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R0  = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: If highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.

Local characterization of the COVID-19 response: the case of a lockdown in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked heated debate among scholars on the relevance of lockdowns. There are those in favor of the lockdown and others who are critical of it. However, despite the increased interest in understanding the relevance of lockdowns, there still has not been much focus on its relevance in countries like Zambia. Thus, with the help of the Social Representation Theory (SRT), we set out to explore and document the local characterization of the lockdown by residents of Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: We recruited our participants through convenient and purposive sampling techniques. This was done through the use of the ZAMTEL public phone records. Initial contact was made to potential participants, and they were asked of their availability and willingness to participate in the interview. Upon agreeing to participate, they were included in the sample. A total of 68 people were selected to take part in this study. Their age ranged from 20 to 76 years old. 33 of them were male and 35 females. After this, we conducted interviews with the 68 participants. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, our interviews were conducted via telephone in conformity with the recommendations from the IRB in Lusaka and the advice of the ministry of health. We anonymized the demographic characteristics and responses from our participants. Later, thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The lockdown was on one hand lauded for slowing down the incidence rates, preventing fatalities, and protecting the healthcare system from collapse. On the other hand, it was criticized for exacerbating poverty levels, unemployment rates, increasing the rate of mental health problems, aiding gender-based violence, and intensifying political repression and corruption. The results speak to the complexity in the characterization of the lockdown as a response to COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia. This observation demonstrates the folly of viewing, applying and characterizing the COVID-19 lockdown as a 'one-size-fits-all' approach in Lusaka, Zambia. CONCLUSION: Rather than establishing the lockdown as an incontestable good, as it is depicted by some scholars or as useless by its critics, our findings instead demonstrate the diversity and complexity in how it is locally viewed by Lusaka residents. The study provides grounds for caution on simplistic and binary characterization of lockdowns. It indicates the need for careful dialog between the designers of lockdowns and citizens in order to tailor such interventions to local realities in context-specific ways. It also shows that though the development of such interventions, all the various and complex elements it embodies must be taken into account in order to realize optimum outcomes.