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1.
Cell Rep ; 37(13): 110169, 2021 12 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1616407

ABSTRACT

The importance of pre-existing immune responses to seasonal endemic coronaviruses (HCoVs) for the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and the course of COVID-19 is the subject of an ongoing scientific debate. Recent studies postulate that immune responses to previous HCoV infections can either have a slightly protective or no effect on SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and, consequently, be neglected for COVID-19 risk stratification. Challenging this notion, we provide evidence that pre-existing, anti-nucleocapsid antibodies against endemic α-coronaviruses and S2 domain-specific anti-spike antibodies against ß-coronavirus HCoV-OC43 are elevated in patients with COVID-19 compared to pre-pandemic donors. This finding is particularly pronounced in males and in critically ill patients. Longitudinal evaluation reveals that antibody cross-reactivity or polyclonal stimulation by SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to be confounders. Thus, specific pre-existing immunity to seasonal coronaviruses may increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and predispose individuals to an adverse COVID-19 outcome, guiding risk management and supporting the development of universal coronavirus vaccines.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/immunology , Coronavirus/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adult , Antibodies/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , COVID-19/etiology , Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Coronavirus OC43, Human/immunology , Coronavirus OC43, Human/pathogenicity , Cross Reactions/immunology , Female , Germany , Humans , Immunity, Humoral/immunology , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Seasons , Severity of Illness Index , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology
2.
Euro Surveill ; 27(1)2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613513

ABSTRACT

Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19 , Immunization, Secondary , COVID-19/prevention & control , France/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , Vaccination
3.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24477, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1599359

ABSTRACT

Assessing the impact of temperature on COVID-19 epidemiology is critical for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, few studies have accounted for the nature of contagious diseases, i.e., their dependent happenings. We aimed to quantify the impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan, employing two epidemiological measurements of transmissibility and severity: the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and case fatality risk (CFR). We estimated the [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR and to subsequently assess the nonlinear and delayed effect of temperature on [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR. For [Formula: see text] at low temperatures, the cumulative relative risk (RR) at the first temperature percentile (3.3 °C) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.7). As for the virulence to humans, moderate cold temperatures were associated with higher CFR, and CFR also increased as the temperature rose. The cumulative RR at the 10th and 99th percentiles of temperature (5.8 °C and 30.8 °C) for CFR were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.3-10.0) and 6.4 (95% CI: 4.1-10.1). Our results suggest the importance to take precautions to avoid infection in both cold and warm seasons to avoid severe cases of COVID-19. The results and our proposed approach will also help in assessing the possible seasonal course of COVID-19 in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Temperature , Basic Reproduction Number , Cold Temperature , Humans , Mortality , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Seasons , Severity of Illness Index , Tokyo/epidemiology , Virulence
5.
Euro Surveill ; 26(27)2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1577032

ABSTRACT

BackgroundInfluenza virus presents a considerable challenge to public health by causing seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Nanopore metagenomic sequencing has the potential to be deployed for near-patient testing, providing rapid infection diagnosis, rationalising antimicrobial therapy, and supporting infection-control interventions.AimTo evaluate the applicability of this sequencing approach as a routine laboratory test for influenza in clinical settings.MethodsWe conducted Oxford Nanopore Technologies (Oxford, United Kingdom (UK)) metagenomic sequencing for 180 respiratory samples from a UK hospital during the 2018/19 influenza season, and compared results to routine molecular diagnostic standards (Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV assay; BioFire FilmArray Respiratory Panel 2 assay). We investigated drug resistance, genetic diversity, and nosocomial transmission using influenza sequence data.ResultsCompared to standard testing, Nanopore metagenomic sequencing was 83% (75/90) sensitive and 93% (84/90) specific for detecting influenza A viruses. Of 59 samples with haemagglutinin subtype determined, 40 were H1 and 19 H3. We identified an influenza A(H3N2) genome encoding the oseltamivir resistance S331R mutation in neuraminidase, potentially associated with an emerging distinct intra-subtype reassortant. Whole genome phylogeny refuted suspicions of a transmission cluster in a ward, but identified two other clusters that likely reflected nosocomial transmission, associated with a predominant community-circulating strain. We also detected other potentially pathogenic viruses and bacteria from the metagenome.ConclusionNanopore metagenomic sequencing can detect the emergence of novel variants and drug resistance, providing timely insights into antimicrobial stewardship and vaccine design. Full genome generation can help investigate and manage nosocomial outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Cross Infection , Influenza, Human , Nanopores , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Cross Infection/diagnosis , Cross Infection/drug therapy , Drug Resistance , Drug Resistance, Viral/genetics , Humans , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/genetics , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Influenza, Human/drug therapy , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Metagenome , Neuraminidase/genetics , Seasons , United Kingdom
6.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 23378, 2021 12 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585808

ABSTRACT

Emissions of black carbon (BC) particles from anthropogenic and natural sources contribute to climate change and human health impacts. Therefore, they need to be accurately quantified to develop an effective mitigation strategy. Although the spread of the emission flux estimates for China have recently narrowed under the constraints of atmospheric observations, consensus has not been reached regarding the dominant emission sector. Here, we quantified the contribution of the residential sector, as 64% (44-82%) in 2019, using the response of the observed atmospheric concentration in the outflowing air during Feb-Mar 2020, with the prevalence of the COVID-19 pandemic and restricted human activities over China. In detail, the BC emission fluxes, estimated after removing effects from meteorological variability, dropped only slightly (- 18%) during Feb-Mar 2020 from the levels in the previous year for selected air masses of Chinese origin, suggesting the contributions from the transport and industry sectors (36%) were smaller than the rest from the residential sector (64%). Carbon monoxide (CO) behaved differently, with larger emission reductions (- 35%) in the period Feb-Mar 2020, suggesting dominance of non-residential (i.e., transport and industry) sectors, which contributed 70% (48-100%) emission during 2019. The estimated BC/CO emission ratio for these sectors will help to further constrain bottom-up emission inventories. We comprehensively provide a clear scientific evidence supporting mitigation policies targeting reduction in residential BC emissions from China by demonstrating the economic feasibility using marginal abatement cost curves.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollution/analysis , COVID-19/prevention & control , Particulate Matter/analysis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Soot/analysis , Algorithms , Atmosphere/analysis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , China , Climate Change , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Environmental Monitoring/statistics & numerical data , Geography , Human Activities , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Residence Characteristics , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Seasons , Wind
7.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 2317, 2021 12 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1582082

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The willingness to get COVID-19 or seasonal influenza vaccines has not yet been thoroughly investigated together, thus, this study aims to explore this notion within the general adult population. METHODS: The responses of 840 Hungarian participants were analysed who took part in a nationwide computer-assisted telephone interviewing. During the survey questions concerning various demographic characteristics, perceived financial status, and willingness to get the two types of vaccines were asked. Descriptive statistics, comparative statistics and word co-occurrence network analysis were conducted. RESULTS: 48.2% of participants were willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine, while this ratio for the seasonal influenza was only 25.7%. The difference was significant. Regardless of how the participants were grouped, based on demographic data or perceived financial status, the significant difference always persisted. Being older than 59 years significantly increased the willingness to get both vaccines when compared to the middle-aged groups, but not when compared to the younger ones. Having higher education significantly elevated the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination in comparison to secondary education. The willingness of getting any type of COVID-19 vaccine correlated with the willingness to get both influenza and COVID-19. Finally, those who were willing to get either vaccine coupled similar words together to describe their thoughts about a COVID-19 vaccination. CONCLUSION: The overall results show a clear preference for a COVID-19 vaccine and there are several similarities between the nature of willingness to get either type of vaccine.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Adult , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Hungary , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , Vaccination
9.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(12): e2141779, 2021 12 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1576027

ABSTRACT

Importance: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalizations in young children. RSV largely disappeared in 2020 owing to precautions taken because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the timing and intensity of the reemergence of RSV and the age groups affected is crucial for planning for the administration of prophylactic antibodies and anticipating hospital capacity. Objective: To examine the association of different factors, including mitigation strategies, duration of maternal-derived immunity, and importation of external infections, with the dynamics of reemergent RSV epidemics. Design, Setting, and Participants: This simulation modeling study used mathematical models to reproduce the annual epidemics of RSV before the COVID-19 pandemic in New York and California. These models were modified to project the trajectory of RSV epidemics from 2020 to 2025 under different scenarios with varying stringency of mitigation measures for SARS-CoV-2. Simulations also evaluated factors likely to affect the reemergence of RSV epidemics, including introduction of the virus from out-of-state sources and decreased transplacentally acquired immunity in infants. Models using parameters fitted to similar inpatient data sets from Colorado and Florida were used to illustrate these associations in populations with biennial RSV epidemics and year-round RSV circulation, respectively. Statistical analysis was performed from February to October 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome of this study was defined as the estimated number of RSV hospitalizations each month in the entire population. Secondary outcomes included the age distribution of hospitalizations among children less than 5 years of age, incidence of any RSV infection, and incidence of RSV lower respiratory tract infection. Results: Among a simulated population of 19.45 million people, virus introduction from external sources was associated with the emergence of the spring and summer epidemic in 2021. There was a tradeoff between the intensity of the spring and summer epidemic in 2021 and the intensity of the epidemic in the subsequent winter. Among children 1 year of age, the estimated incidence of RSV hospitalizations was 707 per 100 000 children per year in the 2021 and 2022 RSV season, compared with 355 per 100 000 children per year in a typical RSV season. Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation modeling study found that virus introduction from external sources was associated with the spring and summer epidemics in 2021. These findings suggest that pediatric departments should be alert to large RSV outbreaks in the coming seasons, the intensity of which could depend on the size of the spring and summer epidemic in that location. Enhanced surveillance is recommended for both prophylaxis administration and hospital capacity management.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Pandemics , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/epidemiology , Age Distribution , Child, Preschool , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical , Physical Distancing , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , United States/epidemiology
10.
Zhonghua Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 101(46): 3771-3774, 2021 Dec 14.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1572699

ABSTRACT

The lower temperature in autumn-winter provides favorable conditions for the survival and spread of respiratory infectious diseases such as the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza. It is likely that there will be a co-circulation of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. In order to promote the prevention and control of influenza and the application of influenza vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, we separately discussed the risk of influenza epidemic in the 2021-2022 season, the influenza vaccination policies, and advocate influenza vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of population medicine. We appeal that COVID-19 vaccination cannot delay the normal delivery of other vaccines in the national immunization programs and non-Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccines. Promoting influenza vaccination policies and improving immunization service convenience are necessary for increasing influenza vaccine coverage, protecting public health and assisting COVID-19 response.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza, Human , COVID-19 Vaccines , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , Vaccination
11.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(45): 1575-1578, 2021 Nov 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1559837

ABSTRACT

Influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States. Between 2010 and 2020, an estimated 9-41 million cases resulted in 140,000-710,000 hospitalizations and 12,000-52,000 deaths annually (1). As the United States enters the 2021-22 influenza season, the potential impact of influenza illnesses is of concern given that influenza season will again coincide with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which could further strain overburdened health care systems. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends routine annual influenza vaccination for the 2021-22 influenza season for all persons aged ≥6 months who have no contraindications (2). To assess the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on influenza vaccination coverage, the percentage change between administration of at least 1 dose of influenza vaccine during September-December 2020 was compared with the average administered in the corresponding periods in 2018 and 2019. The data analyzed were reported from 11 U.S. jurisdictions with high-performing state immunization information systems.* Overall, influenza vaccine administration was 9.0% higher in 2020 compared with the average in 2018 and 2019, combined. However, in 2020, the number of influenza vaccine doses administered to children aged 6-23 months and children aged 2-4 years, was 13.9% and 11.9% lower, respectively than the average for each age group in 2018 and 2019. Strategic efforts are needed to ensure high influenza vaccination coverage among all age groups, especially children aged 6 months-4 years who are not yet eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Administration of influenza vaccine and a COVID-19 vaccine among eligible populations is especially important to reduce the potential strain that influenza and COVID-19 cases could place on health care systems already overburdened by COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Pandemics , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Advisory Committees , Aged , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Child , Child, Preschool , Humans , Immunization/standards , Infant , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Middle Aged , Seasons , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
13.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 42(10): 1722-1749, 2021 Oct 10.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1534280

ABSTRACT

Influenza is a respiratory infectious disease that can seriously affect human health. Influenza virus has frequent antigenic drifts that can facilitate escape from pre-existing population immunity and lead to rapid and widespread transmission. Seasonal influenza is characterized by annual epidemics and outbreaks in places of public gathering such as schools, kindergartens, and nursing homes. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), seasonal influenza causes 3 to 5 million severe cases and 290 000 to 650 000 deaths globally each year. Pregnant women, young children, the elderly, and persons with chronic medical conditions are at highest risk for severe illness and death from influenza virus infection. With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 may co-circulate with influenza and other respiratory viruses in the upcoming winter-spring influenza season. Seasonal influenza vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza virus infection and complications from influenza. China has several licensed influenza vaccines - trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3), which include split-virus influenza vaccine and subunit vaccine; quadrivalent split-virus inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4); and trivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV3). With the exception of a few major cities, influenza vaccine is a non-program vaccine, which means that influenza vaccination is not included in China's Expanded Program on Immunization, and recipients must pay for influenza vaccine and its administration. China CDC has issued "Technical Guidelines for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in China" every year from 2018 to 2020. This past year, there have been scientific and programmatic advances in prevention and control of seasonal influenza. To strengthen technical guidance for prevention and control of influenza and facilitate operational research on influenza vaccination, the National Immunization Advisory Committee (NIAC) Influenza Vaccination Technical Working Group (TWG) updated the 2020-2021 technical guidelines into the "Technical Guidelines for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in China (2021-2022)." The new version has updates in five key areas: (1) new research evidence, especially from studies in China, on disease burden, vaccine effectiveness, vaccine-avoidable disease burden, vaccine safety monitoring, and cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses, (2) policies and measures for influenza prevention and control that were issued by National Health Commission (NHC) in the past year, (3) licensure of a new seasonal influenza vaccine in time for the 2021-2022 season, (4) composition of the northern hemisphere trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccines for the 2021-2022 season, and (5) recommendations for influenza vaccination during the 2021-2022 influenza season. The recommendations specify that immunization clinics should provide influenza vaccine to all persons aged 6 months and above who are willing to be vaccinated and do not have contraindications; the interval between receipt of influenza vaccine and COVID-19 vaccine should at least 14 days; and there is no preference for one influenza vaccine over another for persons for whom more than one licensed, recommended, and appropriate vaccine is available. Considering the global COVID-19 pandemic and the need to decrease risk of influenza virus infection and minimize potential impact on COVID-19 prevention and control, we recommend the following target population priorities in preparation for the 2021-2022 influenza season: (1) healthcare workers, including clinical doctors and nurses, public health professionals, and quarantine professionals, (2) volunteers and staff who provide service and support for large events, (3) people living in nursing homes or welfare homes and staff who take care of vulnerable, at-risk individuals, (4) people who work in high population density settings, including teachers and students in kindergartens, primary, and secondary schools and prisoners and prison staff, and (5) people with high risk of complications from influenza, including adults ≥60 years of age, children 6-59 months of age, persons with certain chronic conditions, family members and caregivers of infants <6 months of age, and pregnant women and women who plan to become pregnant during the influenza season. Children 6 months through 8 years of age who have never received influenza vaccine or who have received only one lifetime dose require 2 doses of influenza vaccine that are administered at least 4 weeks apart. This recommendation applies to both IIV and LAIV. If children received 2 doses of influenza vaccine in the 2020-2021 influenza season or received more than 2 doses of influenza vaccine in prior influenza seasons, 1 dose of influenza vaccine is recommended. People more than 9 years old require only 1 dose of influenza vaccine. People should receive influenza vaccination by the end of October, and influenza vaccine should be offered as soon as it is available. For people unable to be vaccinated before the end of October, influenza vaccine will continue to be offered throughout the season. Influenza vaccine is recommended for pregnant women during any trimester of pregnancy. These guidelines are intended for use by staff of CDCs at all levels who work on influenza control and prevention; immunization clinic staff members; healthcare workers from departments of pediatrics, internal medicine, and infectious diseases; and staff of maternity and child care institutions at all levels. The guidelines will be periodically updated as new evidence becomes available.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza, Human , Aged , COVID-19 Vaccines , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Pandemics , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , Vaccination
14.
J Gen Intern Med ; 36(11): 3632-3635, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1525609

Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons
15.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(21)2021 11 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1512317

ABSTRACT

Decreased air quality is connected to an increase in daily mortality rates. Thus, people's behavioural response to sometimes elevated air pollution levels is vital. We aimed to analyse spatial and seasonal changes in air pollution-related information-seeking behaviour in response to nationwide reported air quality in Poland. Google Trends Search Volume Index data was used to investigate Poles' interest in air pollution-related keywords. PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations measured across Poland between 2016 and 2019 as well as locations of monitoring stations were collected from the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection databases. Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficients were used to measure the strength of spatial and seasonal relationships between reported air pollution levels and the popularity of search queries. The highest PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were observed in southern voivodeships and during the winter season. Similar trends were observed for Poles' interest in air pollution-related keywords. Greater interest in air quality data in Poland strongly correlates with both higher regional and higher seasonal air pollution levels. It appears that Poles are socially aware of this issue and that their intensification of the information-seeking behaviour seems to indicate a relevant ad hoc response to variable threat severity levels.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollution/analysis , Environmental Monitoring , Humans , Particulate Matter/analysis , Poland , Search Engine , Seasons
16.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(21)2021 11 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1512301

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Heat waves are correlated with increased mortality in the aged population. Social isolation is known as a vulnerability factor. This study aims at evaluating the correlation between an intervention to reduce social isolation and the increase in mortality in the population over 80 during heat waves. METHODS: This study adopted a retrospective ecologic design. We compared the excess mortality rate (EMR) in the over-80 population during heat waves in urban areas of Rome (Italy) where a program to reduce social isolation was implemented, to others where it was not implemented. We measured the mortality of the summer periods from 2015 to 2019 compared with 2014 (a year without heat waves). Winter mortality, cadastral income, and the proportion of people over 90 were included in the multivariate Poisson regression. RESULTS: The EMR in the intervention and controls was 2.70% and 3.81%, respectively. The rate ratio was 0.70 (c.i. 0.54-0.92, p-value 0.01). The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of the interventions, with respect to the controls, was 0.76 (c.i. 0.59-0.98). After adjusting for other variables, the IRR was 0.44 (c.i. 0.32-0.60). CONCLUSIONS: Reducing social isolation could limit the impact of heat waves on the mortality of the elderly population.


Subject(s)
Hot Temperature , Social Isolation , Aged , Humans , Incidence , Retrospective Studies , Seasons
17.
Euro Surveill ; 26(40)2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1511988

ABSTRACT

BackgroundAnnual seasonal influenza activity in the northern hemisphere causes a high burden of disease during the winter months, peaking in the first weeks of the year.AimWe describe the 2019/20 influenza season and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sentinel surveillance in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region.MethodsWe analysed weekly epidemiological and virological influenza data from sentinel primary care and hospital sources reported by countries, territories and areas (hereafter countries) in the European Region.ResultsWe observed co-circulation of influenza B/Victoria-lineage, A(H1)pdm09 and A(H3) viruses during the 2019/20 season, with different dominance patterns observed across the Region. A higher proportion of patients with influenza A virus infection than type B were observed. The influenza activity started in week 47/2019, and influenza positivity rate was ≥ 50% for 2 weeks (05-06/2020) rather than 5-8 weeks in the previous five seasons. In many countries a rapid reduction in sentinel reports and the highest influenza activity was observed in weeks 09-13/2020. Reporting was reduced from week 14/2020 across the Region coincident with the onset of widespread circulation of SARS-CoV-2.ConclusionsOverall, influenza type A viruses dominated; however, there were varying patterns across the Region, with dominance of B/Victoria-lineage viruses in a few countries. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to an earlier end of the influenza season and reduced influenza virus circulation probably owing to restricted healthcare access and public health measures.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza, Human , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , World Health Organization
18.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 22027, 2021 11 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1510609

ABSTRACT

Rising temperature levels during spring and summer are often argued to enable lifting of strict containment measures even in the absence of herd immunity. Despite broad scholarly interest in the relationship between weather and coronavirus spread, previous studies come to very mixed results. To contribute to this puzzle, the paper examines the impact of weather on the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique granular dataset of over 1.2 million daily observations covering over 3700 counties in nine countries for all seasons of 2020. Our results show that temperature and wind speed have a robust negative effect on virus spread after controlling for a range of potential confounding factors. These effects, however, are substantially larger during mealtimes, as well as in periods of high mobility and low containment, suggesting an important role for social behaviour.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Pandemics , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Seasons , Social Behavior , Temperature , Weather , Wind
19.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 21812, 2021 11 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1505841

ABSTRACT

An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions-measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC-on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7-5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1-6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5-6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6-5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Climate , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Algorithms , Bayes Theorem , Decision Making , France/epidemiology , Hospitals , Humans , Humidity , Infectious Disease Medicine , Reproducibility of Results , Respiration Disorders , Seasons , Temperature
20.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 55(11): 1321-1327, 2021 Nov 06.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1505483

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of human coronavirus (HCoV) in hospitalized children with respiratory tract infection in Hebei region, providing evidence for the diagnosis and prevention of children with respiratory tract infection. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 1 062 HCoV positive children hospitalized for respiratory tract infection in Children's Hospital of Hebei Province from January 2015 to December 2020, aged from 33 days to 14 years, with a median age of 2 years. 27 932 (60.9%) were males and 17 944(39.1%) were females. And the gender, ages, seasonal distribution, HCoV-positive rates, co-detection distribution and clinical diagnosis of HCoV positive cases were analyzed by SPSS 25.0. Enumeration data were expressed by frequency and percentage; categorical variable were compared by the Pearson χ2test. Results: The overall HCoV-positive rate was 2.31% (1 062/45 876), which was 2.37% (662/27 932) in male children and 2.23% (400/17 944) in female children. There was no statistically significant difference between genders (χ²=0.916, P=0.339). Children at age groups<1 years (2.44%) and 1-<3 years (2.63%) had higher HCoV-positive rates than those at age groups 3-<5 years (1.97%) and ≥5 years (1.38%) (χ²=27.332,P<0.01). The HCoV-positive rates from 2015 to 2018 were 2.13%, 2.45%, 2.28% and 2.23%. The HCoV-positive rate of 2019 (1.71%) was significantly lower than in 2016 (χ²=12.05, P<0.01), 2017 (χ²=7.34, P=0.01) and 2018 (χ²=6.78, P=0.01), but there was no significant difference compared with 2015 (χ²=2.84, P=0.09). The HCoV-positive rate of 2020 (3.37%) was significantly higher than in 2015 (χ²=13.636, P<0.01), 2016 (χ²=11.099, P<0.01), 2017 (χ²=15.482, P<0.01), 2018(χ²=18.601, P<0.01) and 2019(χ²=45.580, P<0.01). The positive rate was highest in spring (March to May) in 2015 and 2017 to 2018. February to April and July to September of 2016 were the peak periods of positive detection. No obvious seasonal change was observed in 2019 and the HCoV-positive rate of 2020 was extremely low from January to July, following significantly increased from August to December. 26.37% (280/1 062) of HCoV were co-detected with other respiratory pathogens and the most frequently identified mixed detection was RSV. Three or more pathogens were detected in 7.34% (78/1 062) of the HCoV-positive samples. Bronchopneumonia and bronchiolitis were more frequently observed in the single HCoV positive (61.89% and 16.75%) children compared to co-detected children(34.29% and 9.64%)(χ²=63.394 and 8.228, P<0.01). However, compared to those with HCoV mono-detection, co-detected children were more likely to have severe pneumonia (4.6% and 47.14%) (χ²=280.171, P<0.01). Conclusions: HCoV is one of the respiratory pathogens in children in Hebei region and more prevalent in spring. The susceptible population of HCoV is mainly children under the age of 3 years old. HCoV often co-detects with other respiratory pathogens, and the co-infection is one of the risk factors of severe pneumonia in children with respiratory infection.


Subject(s)
Coinfection , Coronavirus Infections , Coronavirus , Respiratory Tract Infections , Child , Child, Hospitalized , Child, Preschool , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Seasons
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