Comparison of Bayesian spatio-temporal models for small-area life expectancy: A simulation study.

The purpose of this study was to assess the precision, uncertainty, and normality of small-area life expectancy estimates calculated using Bayesian spatio-temporal models. We hypothesized six scenarios in which all 247 districts of Korea had the same year-specific female population of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, and 25,000 individuals during the study period (2013-2017). We generated 1,000 hypothetical datasets for each scenario and calculated district-year life expectancies. The precision and uncertainty of life expectancy estimates were compared between the two Bayesian spatio-temporal models and the traditional method and Bayesian spatial models. We examined the normality of the life expectancy distributions generated by each method and investigated an optimal cut-off value for the comparisons. The Bayesian spatio-temporal models produced precise life expectancy estimates. However, the 95% uncertainty interval contained the true value with a probability of less than 95%. The Bayesian spatio-temporal models violated the normality assumption in scenarios with small population sizes. Therefore, life expectancy comparisons should be conducted using a cut-off value that minimizes false-positive and false-negative rates. We proposed 0.8 as a cut-off value to determine the statistical significance of the difference in life expectancy.

Health Impacts of Long-Term NO2 Exposure and Inequalities among the Chinese Population from 2013 to 2020.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is associated with mortality and many other adverse health outcomes. In 2021, the World Health Organization established a new NO2 air quality guideline (AQG) (annual average <10 µg/m3). However, the burden of diseases attributable to long-term NO2 exposure above the AQG is unknown in China. Nitrogen oxide is a major air pollutant in populous cities, which are disproportionately impacted by NO2; this represents a form of environmental inequality. We conducted a nationwide risk assessment of premature deaths attributable to long-term NO2 exposure from 2013 to 2020 based on the exposure-response relationship, high-resolution annual NO2 concentrations, and gridded population data (considering sex, age, and residence [urban vs rural]). We calculated health metrics including attributable deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and loss of life expectancy (LLE). Inequality in the distribution of attributable deaths and YLLs was evaluated by the Lorenz curve and Gini index. According to the health impact assessments, in 2013, long-term NO2 exposure contributed to 315,847 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 306,709-319,269) premature deaths, 7.90 (7.68-7.99) million YLLs, and an LLE of 0.51 (0.50-0.52) years. The high-risk subgroup (top 20%) accounted for 85.7% of all NO2-related deaths and 85.2% of YLLs, resulting in Gini index values of 0.81 and 0.67, respectively. From 2013 to 2020, the estimated health impact from NO2 exposure was significantly reduced, but inequality displayed a slightly increasing trend. Our study revealed a considerable burden of NO2-related deaths in China, which were disproportionally frequent in a small high-risk subgroup. Future clean air initiatives should focus not only on reducing the average level of NO2 exposure but also minimizing inequality.

Expect Nothing: The (Lack of) Influence of Subjective Life Expectancy on Valuation of Child Health States.

Objective: Earlier research has shown that individuals' subjective life expectancy (SLE) affects health state valuation with time trade-off (TTO). Individuals with longer expected life durations are less willing to trade-off life duration, which yields higher utilities. In this article, the influence of SLE is explored in the valuation of EQ-5D-Y-3L with a proxy perspective, i.e., adults' valuation of health states considering the life of a 10-year-old child. As SLE for children is likely higher, this might explain earlier findings suggesting that individuals are less willing to trade-off years of life for children than for adults. Methods: A total of 197 respondents were recruited to take part in digital TTO interviews, facilitated by trained interviewers. TTO interviews were implemented in accordance with the recommended protocol for the valuation of EQ-5D-Y-3L. Respondents valued 10 EQ-5D-Y-3L health states for a 10-year-old child, after which they were asked to report how old they themselves expected to become and also how old they expected a 10-year-old child to become. Results: Generally, adult respondents reported higher SLE for children than for themselves. Neither SLE was systematically associated with the willingness to trade lifetime or the number of life years traded off in TTO tasks. This null-result was substantiated by regression analyses per health state. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that individuals' expectations about longevity are not associated with EQ-5D-Y-3L valuation. This lack of association is in contrast to earlier work and might be explained by the psychological distance introduced with proxy perspective valuation, or by the methodological differences with earlier work.

Trends and inequalities in (healthy) life expectancy by neighbourhood during the COVID-19 epidemic in Barcelona / Tendencias y desigualdades en la esperanza de vida (en buena salud) por barrios durante la epidemia de COVID-19 en Barcelona

Objective: To analyse the trend in life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HLE) and socio-economic inequalities by neighbourhood in Barcelona from the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019) to the pandemic period (2020-2021). Method: LE and HLE at birth were computed using the municipal register of inhabitants and quality of life (EuroQol) from the Barcelona Health Survey of 2016. Inequalities were assessed with the gap between quantiles of neighbourhood income. Results: In 2020, there was a reduction in LE among men (−1.98 years) and women (−2.44) and in HLE among men (−1.44). Socio-economic inequalities in LE and HLE between neighbourhoods widened since 2019 to 2021 (LE: from 3.92 to 4.86 years for men, and from 1.30 to 3.60 for women; HLE: from 6.88 to 7.70 years for men, and from 7.85 to 9.31 for women). Conclusions: The pandemic has substantially reduced LE and HLE, with larger effects among low-income neighbourhoods, especially among women. (AU)

Objetivo: Analizar la evolución de la esperanza de vida (EV), la esperanza de vida en buena salud (EVBS) y las desigualdades socioeconómicas por barrios en Barcelona desde el periodo prepandémico (2018-2019) hasta el periodo de pandemia (2020-2021). Método: Se calcularon la EV y la EVBS al nacimiento utilizando el registro municipal de habitantes y la calidad de vida (EuroQol) de la Encuesta de Salud de Barcelona de 2016. Las desigualdades se valoraron mediante la brecha entre los cuantiles de ingreso por barrios. Resultados: En 2020 hubo una reducción en la EV en los hombres (−1,98 años) y las mujeres (−2,44), y en la EVBS en los hombres (−1,44). Las desigualdades socioeconómicas en EV y EVBS por barrios se ampliaron de 2019 a 2021 (EV: de 3,92 hasta 4,86 años en hombres y de 1,30 hasta 3,60 años en mujeres; EVBS: de 6,88 hasta 7,70 años en hombres y de 7,85 hasta 9,31 años en mujeres). Conclusiones: La pandemia ha reducido sustancialmente la EV y la EVBS, con mayores efectos en los barrios de menor renta, en especial en las mujeres. (AU)

Life expectancy among older adults with or without frailty in China: multistate modelling of a national longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about life expectancy (LE) with or without frailty. We aimed to estimate the total LE and duration of the state of frailty in China. METHODS: This study included older adults aged 65 years and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS). Frailty status was classified into robust, pre-frailty and frailty based on a cumulative deficit model. Total and specific frailty state LEs at 65 years of age were estimated and stratified by demographic characteristics, behaviours, and psychosocial factors using continuous-time multistate modelling. RESULTS: The total LE of older adults aged 65 years in China was 14.74 years on average (95% CI: 14.52-14.94), of which 4.18 years (95% CI: 4.05-4.30) were robust, 7.46 years (95% CI: 7.31-7.61) pre-frail and 3.10 years (95% CI: 3.01-3.20) frail. Older adults with higher robust LE included men (4.71 years, 95% CI: 4.56-4.88), married older adults (4.41 years, 95% CI: 4.27-4.56), those engaging in physical activity (4.41 years, 95% CI: 4.23-4.59), those consuming fruits daily (4.48 years, 95% CI: 4.22-4.77) and those with high social participation (4.39 years, 95% CI: 4.26-4.53). Increased educational attainment were gradually associated with increased robust LE. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty may lead to a reduced total LE and robust LE of older adults in China. In addition to finding inequalities in total and robust LEs by socioeconomic status, our findings also highlight that healthy behaviours and social participation may ease frailty-related reductions in total and robust LE. Our findings imply that national life-course strategies aimed at frailty screening and psychosocial and behavioural interventions could be important for health aging in China.

Association between Life's Essential 8 score and risk of premature mortality in people with and without type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

AIMS: To evaluate the association of cardiovascular health (CVH), measured by Life's Essential 8 score, with the risk of premature mortality and to determine the patterns of CVH-related differences in life expectancy among people with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study included 309,789 participants (age 56.6 ± 8.1 years; 46% men) enroled in the UK Biobank. The Life's Essential 8 composite measure consists of four health behaviours (diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, and sleep) and four health factors (BMI, non-HDL cholesterol, blood glucose, and blood pressure), and the maximum CVH score was 100 points. CVH was categorised into low, moderate, and high groups. Premature death was defined as death before the age of 75. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and life expectancy was estimated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 13,683 cases of premature death were documented. Compared to participants with low CVH, the multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of premature death were 0.59 (0.56-0.62) and 0.42 (0.39-0.45) for the moderate and high CVH groups, respectively. This association was stronger in participants with T2D compared with those without T2D. At the age of 50 years, compared to low CVH groups, high CVH was associated with a gain of 9.79 (9.70-9.87) and 5.58 (5.48-5.67) additional life years for men with and without T2D, respectively. The corresponding life gain for women with and without T2D was 24.21 (24.13-24.27) and 10.18 (10.10-10.27), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining an ideal Life's Essential 8 score may provide more benefits for people with T2D than for those without T2D, including a lower risk of premature death and an increased lifespan.

The association of green space, tree canopy and parks with life expectancy in neighborhoods of Los Angeles.

Substantial evidence suggests that access to urban green spaces and parks is associated with positive health outcomes, including decreased mortality. Few existing studies have investigated the association between green spaces and life expectancy (LE), and none have used small-area data in the U.S. Here we used the recently released U.S. Small-Area Life Expectancy Estimates Project data to quantify the relationship between LE and green space in Los Angeles County, a large diverse region with inequities in park access. We developed a model to quantify the association between green space and LE at the census tract level. We evaluated three green space metrics: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, 0.6-meter scale), percent tree canopy cover, and accessible park acres. We statistically adjusted for 15 other determinants of LE. We also developed conditional autoregressive models to account for spatial dependence. Tree canopy and NDVI were both significantly associated with higher LE. For an interquartile range (IQR) increase in each metric respectively, the spatial models demonstrated a 0.24 to 0.33-year increase in LE. Tree canopy and NDVI also modified the effect of park acreage on LE. ln areas with tree canopy levels below the county median, an IQR increase in park acreage was associated with an increase of 0.12 years. Although on an individual level these effects were modest, we predicted 155,300 years of LE gains across the population in LA County if all areas below median tree canopy were brought to the county median of park acres. If tree canopy or NDVI were brought to median levels, between 570,300 and 908,800 years of LE could be gained. The majority of potential gains are in areas with predominantly Hispanic/Latinx and Black populations. These findings suggest that equitable access to green spaces could result in substantial population health benefits.

Diferenciais de gênero na expectativa de vida saudável entre idosos: estimativas para Bahia e região Nordeste / Differentials of gender in the healthy life expectancy among older adults: estimations for Bahia and Northeast region / Diferenciales de género en la esperanza de vida saludable entre adultos mayores: estimaciones para Bahía y región Nordeste de Brasil

Uma das ferramentas para avaliar as condições de saúde da população é a expectativa de vida saudável. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a expectativa de vida saudável em idosos e adultos mais velhos da Bahia e grande região Nordeste. Trata-se de um estudo transversal, no qual foram empregados dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde de 2019. Como proxy de saúde, utilizaram-se as prevalências de autopercepção do estado de saúde, desagregadas por sexo, para o estado da Bahia e região Nordeste, além de tábuas de mortalidade completas para o mesmo ano e localidades, desagregadas por sexo. Para a construção dos indicadores de expectativa de vida saudável foi utilizado o método de Sullivan. As estimativas de expectativa de vida saudável mostraram que, quanto mais velhos, menos se vive em termos absolutos e proporcionalmente com boa saúde, uma relação direta com a idade. As mulheres tendem a viver mais e com menos saúde, no entanto, as estimativas não foram estatisticamente significativas na perspectiva de gênero. Propiciar melhor saúde e vida para indivíduos idosos deve ser um dos principais objetivos das ações governamentais deste século, haja vista o acelerado processo de envelhecimento da população e o aumento da longevidade, tendo em mente uma perspectiva de ação durante todo o curso de vida, não se limitando às fases mais avançadas da vida.

One of the tools used to assess what is observed in terms of the population's health conditions is healthy life expectancy. The aim of this study was to estimate the healthy life expectancy in older and elderly adults in Bahia and the Greater Northeast Region. This is a cross-sectional study, in which data from the 2019 National Health Survey were used. As a health proxy, the prevalence of self-perception of health status, disaggregated by sex, for the state of Bahia and the Northeast region, and complete tables of mortality for the same year and locations, disaggregated by sex. For the construction of healthy life expectancy indicators, the Sullivan method was used. Estimates of healthy life expectancy showed that, the older you are, the less you live in absolute terms and proportionately in good health, a direct relationship with age. Women tend to live longer and in poorer health, however, the estimates were not statistically significant from a gender perspective. Providing better health and life for elderly individuals should be one of the main objectives of governmental actions in this century, given the accelerated process of population aging and increased longevity, bearing in mind a perspective of action throughout the life course, not limited to the more advanced stages of life.

Una de las herramientas utilizadas para evaluar las condiciones de salud de la población es la esperanza de vida saludable. El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la esperanza de vida saludable en adultos mayores y ancianos en Bahía y la región del gran Nordeste (Brasil). Se trata de un estudio transversal en el que se utilizaron datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud de 2019. Como proxy de salud, se utilizaron la prevalencia de autopercepción del estado de salud, desagregada por sexo, para el estado de Bahía y la región Nordeste, y tablas de mortalidad para el mismo año y localidades, desagregada por sexo. Para la construcción de indicadores de esperanza de vida saludable se aplicó el método de Sullivan. Las estimaciones de esperanza de vida saludable mostraron que cuanto mayor es la edad, menos se vive en términos absolutos y proporcionalmente con buena salud, una relación directa con la edad. Las mujeres tienden a vivir más y con peor salud, sin embargo, las estimaciones no fueron estadísticamente significativas desde una perspectiva de género. Brindar una mejor salud y vida a las personas adultas mayores debe ser uno de los principales objetivos de las acciones gubernamentales en este siglo, dado el acelerado proceso de envejecimiento poblacional y el aumento de la longevidad, teniendo en cuenta una perspectiva de acción a lo largo del curso de la vida, no limitada a las etapas más avanzadas.

The lifetime burden following stroke: Long term impact of stroke on survival and quality of life.

Background The absolute burden of stroke in Korea is ever growing. Many studies have explored the outcomes of mortality, quality of life (QOL), and/or economic burden with limited periods of observation. Relatively few have addressed the lifetime outcomes that are estimated beyond the limited observation period of study samples.Aims By combining QOL and the survival functions over a lifetime horizon, our aims were to estimate the quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and loss-of-QALE of patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in South Korea, and to compare them between genders.Methods The survival function of stroke patients (n=13,994) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier's method from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort of Korea (2002-2015), and then extrapolated to lifetime through a rolling-over algorithm. The QOL measurements, assessed by EuroQol 5-dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, of stroke patients (n=474) were extracted from the Korea Health Panel (KHP, 2008-2018) to estimate the QALE. All stroke patients were categorized by sex and two types of stroke: ischemic and hemorrhagic. Age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents were simulated from the Korean life tables to be integrated with the general population's QOL from the KHP to estimate the QALE of the referents. We calculated the loss-of-QALE by comparing the above two sets of QALE.Results The QALE and loss-of-QALE for ischemic stroke were 10.8 and 6.1 QALYs (quality-adjusted life years), respectively, and 14.0 and 9.0 QALYs for hemorrhagic stroke. The loss-of-QALE in men was 3.0 QALYs larger than that of women with hemorrhagic stroke (p < 0.05), while the difference for ischemic stroke was much smaller and statistically insignificant at 0.6 QALYs.Conclusions The lifetime impact of stroke in Korea is large, especially for males who survived hemorrhagic stroke. Future studies assessing the lifetime needs for long-term care of stroke patients are warranted to quantify the burden of stroke from the societal perspective.

Managing Mortality and Aging Risks with a Time-Varying Lee-Carter Model.

Influential existing research has suggested that rather than being static, mortality declines decelerate at young ages and accelerate at old ages. Without accounting for this feature, the forecast mortality rates of the popular Lee-Carter (LC) model are less reliable in the long run. To provide more accurate mortality forecasting, we introduce a time-varying coefficients extension of the LC model by adopting the effective kernel methods. With two frequently used kernel functions, Epanechnikov (LC-E) and Gaussian (LC-G), we demonstrate that the proposed extension is easy to implement, incorporates the rotating patterns of mortality decline and is straightforwardly extensible to multi-population cases. Using a large sample of 15 countries over 1950-2019, we show that LC-E and LC-G, as well as their multi-population counterparts, can consistently improve the forecasting accuracy of the competing LC and Li-Lee models in both single- and multi-population scenarios.

Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

Do Religious Struggles Mediate the Association Between Neighborhood Disorder and Health in the United States?

Over the past two decades, numerous studies have linked the subjective experience of neighborhood disorder (perceptions of crime, dilapidation and ambient strains) with poorer health. We test whether religious struggles (religious doubts and feeling abandoned or punished by God) mediate this association. Our counterfactual mediation analyses of data from the 2021 Crime, Health, and Politics Survey (CHAPS) (n = 1741) revealed consistent indirect effects of neighborhood disorder through religious struggles for anger, psychological distress, sleep disturbance, poorer self-rated health, and shorter subjective life expectancy. This study contributes to previous work by integrating the study of neighborhood context and religion.

Influence of poor sleep on cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy: a multi-resource-based population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The complexity of sleep hinders the formulation of sleep guidelines. Recent studies suggest that different unhealthy sleep characteristics jointly increase the risks for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to estimate the differences in CVD-free life expectancy between people with different sleep profiles. METHODS: We included 308,683 middle-aged adults from the UK Biobank among whom 140,181 had primary care data linkage. We used an established composite sleep score comprising self-reported chronotype, duration, insomnia complaints, snoring, and daytime sleepiness to derive three sleep categories: poor, intermediate, and healthy. We also identified three clinical sleep disorders captured by primary care and inpatient records within 2 years before enrollment in the cohort: insomnia, sleep-related breathing disorders, and other sleep disorders. We estimated sex-specific CVD-free life expectancy with three-state Markov models conditioning on survival at age 40 across different sleep profiles and clinical disorders. RESULTS: We observed a gradual loss in CVD-free life expectancy toward poor sleep such as, compared with healthy sleepers, poor sleepers lost 1.80 [95% CI 0.96-2.75] and 2.31 [1.46-3.29] CVD-free years in females and males, respectively, while intermediate sleepers lost 0.48 [0.41-0.55] and 0.55 [0.49-0.61] years. Among men, those with clinical insomnia or sleep-related breathing disorders lost CVD-free life by 3.84 [0.61-8.59] or 6.73 [5.31-8.48] years, respectively. Among women, sleep-related breathing disorders or other sleep disorders were associated with 7.32 [5.33-10.34] or 1.43 [0.20-3.29] years lost, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both self-reported and doctor-diagnosed poor sleep are negatively associated with CVD-free life, especially pronounced in participants with sleep-related breathing disorders.

Well-Being Adjusted Health Expectancy: A New Summary Measure of Population Health.

We propose a new summary measure of population health (SMPH), the well-being-adjusted health expectancy (WAHE). WAHE belongs to a subgroup of health-adjusted life expectancy indicators and gives the number of life years equivalent to full health. WAHE combines health and mortality information into a single indicator with weights that quantify the reduction in well-being associated with decreased health. WAHE's advantage over other SMPHs lies in its ability to differentiate between the consequences of health limitations at various levels of severity and its transparent, simple valuation function. Following the guidelines of a Committee on Summary Measures of Population Health, we discuss WAHE's validity, universality, feasibility sensitivity and ensure its reproducibility. We evaluate WAHE's performance compared to life expectancy, the most commonly used indicators of health expectancy (HE) and disability-adjusted life expectancy (DALE) in an empirical application for 29 European countries. Data on health and well-being are taken from the 2018 EU-SILC, and the life tables are from Eurostat. DALE is taken from the database of the Global Burden of Disease Programme. WAHE's sensitivity to univariate and multivariate state specifications is studied using the three Minimum European Health Module health dimensions: chronic morbidity, limitations in activities of daily living, and self-rated health. The empirical tests of the indicators' correspondence reveal that WAHE has the strongest correlation with the other SMPHs. Moreover, WAHE estimates are in agreement with all other SMPHs. Additionally, WAHE and all other SMPHs form a group of reliable indicators for studying population health in European countries. Finally, WAHE estimates are robust, regardless of whether health is defined across one or multiple simultaneous dimensions of health. We conclude that WAHE is a useful and reliable indicator of population health and performs at least as well as other commonly used SMPHs.

Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis.

Mortality transition in Greece is a well-studied phenomenon in several of its aspects. It is characterised by an almost constant increase in life expectancy at birth and other ages and a parallel decrease in death probabilities. The scope of this paper is a comprehensive assessment of the mortality transition in Greece since 1961, in the light of holistic analysis. Within this paper, life tables by gender were calculated and the temporal trends of life expectancy at several ages were examined. Moreover, a cluster analysis was used in order to verify the temporal changes in the mortality patterns. The probabilities of death in large age classes are presented. Furthermore, the death distribution was analysed in relation to various parameters: the modal age at death, mode, left and right inflexion points and the length of the old age heap. Before that, a non-linear regression method, originating from the stochastic analysis, was applied. Additionally, the Gini coefficient, average inter-individual differences, and interquartile range of survival curves were examined. Finally, the standardised rates of the major causes of death are presented. All the analysis variables were scholastically examined for their temporal trends with the method of Joinpoint Regression analysis. Mortality transition in Greece after the year 1961 is asymmetrical with a gender and an age-specific component, leading to the elevation of life expectancy at birth over time. During this period, the older ages' mortality decreases, but at a slower pace than that of the younger ones. The modal age at death, mode, the left and right inflexion points and the width of the old age heap denote the compression of mortality in the country. The old age death heap shifts towards older ages, while at the same time, the variability of ages at death decreases, being verified by the Gini Coefficient and average inter-individual differences. As a result, the rectangularization of survival curves is evident. These changes have a different pace of transition over time, especially after the emergence of the economic crisis. Finally, the major causes of death were the diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system and others. The temporal trends of these diseases differ according to the diseases and gender. Greece's mortality transition is an asymmetrical stepwise process characterised by its gender and age-specific characteristics. This process, despite being a continuous one, is not linear. Instead, a combination of serious developments over time governs the country's modern mortality regime. The evaluation of Greece's mortality transition through the lens of more advanced analytical methods may provide new insights and methodological alternatives for assessing mortality transition in other countries of the world.

Evaluation of Lee-Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan.

Background: Precise breast cancer-related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model-based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed. The trends shown by mortality data from various diseases and countries are critical to the effectiveness of these models. This study illustrates the unconventional statistical method for estimating and predicting the mortality risk between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan using the Lee-Carter model. Methods: Longitudinal death data for female breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study database were used to compare statistical approach between early-onset (age group, 25-49 years) and screen-age/late-onset (age group, 50-84 years) population. We evaluated the model performance both within (training period, 1990-2010) and outside (test period, 2011-2019) data forecast accuracy using the different error measures and graphical analysis. Finally, using the Lee-Carter model, we predicted the general index for the time period (2011 to 2030) and derived corresponding life expectancy at birth for the female breast cancer population using life tables. Results: Study findings revealed that the Lee-Carter approach to predict breast cancer mortality rate outperformed in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset population in terms of goodness of fit and within and outside forecast accuracy check. Moreover, the trend in forecast error was decreasing gradually in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan. Furthermore, we observed that this approach had provided almost comparable results between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset population in forecast accuracy for more varying mortality behavior over time like in Pakistan. Both the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset populations in Pakistan were expected to have an increase in breast cancer mortality by 2030. whereas, for China, it was expected to decrease in the early-onset population. Conclusion: The Lee-Carter model can be used to estimate breast cancer mortality and so to project future life expectancy at birth, especially in the screen-age/late-onset population. As a result, it is suggested that this approach may be useful and convenient for predicting cancer-related mortality even when epidemiological and demographic disease data sets are limited. According to model predictions for breast cancer mortality, improved health facilities for disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are required to reduce the disease's future burden, particularly in less developed countries.

Impacts of solid fuel use versus smoking on life expectancy at age 30 years in the rural and urban Chinese population: a prospective cohort study.

Background: The impact of solid fuel use on life expectancy (LE) in less-developed countries remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the potential impact of household solid fuel use on LE in the rural and urban Chinese population, with the effect of smoking as a reference. Methods: We used data from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) of 484,915 participants aged 30-79 free of coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline. Analyses were performed separately for solid fuel use for cooking, solid fuel use for heating, and smoking, with participants exposed to the other two sources excluded. Solid fuels refer to coal and wood, and clean fuels refer to electricity, gas, and central heating. We used a flexible parametric Royston-Parmar model to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality and predict LE at age 30. Findings: Totally, 185,077, 95,228, and 230,995 participants were included in cooking-, heating-, and smoking-related analyses, respectively. During a median follow-up of approximately 12.1 years, 12,725, 7,531, and 18,878 deaths were recorded in the respective analysis. Compared with clean fuel users who reported cooking with ventilation, participants who used solid fuels with ventilation and without ventilation had a difference in LE (95% confidence interval [CI]) at age 30 of -1.72 (-2.88, -0.57) and -2.62 (-4.16, -1.05) years for men and -1.33 (-1.85, -0.81) and -1.35 (-2.02, -0.67) years for women, respectively. The difference in LE (95% CI) for heating was -2.23 (-3.51, -0.95) years for men and -1.28 (-2.08, -0.48) years for women. In rural men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to solid fuel use for cooking (-2.55; -4.51, -0.58) or heating (-3.26; -6.09, 0.44) was more than that related to smoking (-1.71; -2.54, -0.89). Conversely, in urban men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to smoking (-3.06; -3.56, -2.56) was more than that related to solid fuel use for cooking (-1.28; -2.61, 0.05) and heating (-1.90; -3.16, -0.65). Similar results were observed in women but with a smaller magnitude. Interpretation: In this Chinese population, the harm to LE from household use of solid fuels was greater than that from smoking in rural residents. Conversely, the negative impact of smoking was greater than solid fuel use in urban residents. Our findings highlight the complexity and diversity of the factors affecting LE in less-developed populations. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key R&D Program of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust.

Mortality risk and years of life lost for people with reduced renal function detected from regular health checkup: A matched cohort study.

With the increasing threat of metabolic syndromes, a focus on maintaining kidney health from early- to mid-adulthood is necessary. This study elucidates mortality risk and years of life lost (YLLs) due to abnormal renal function. This was a retrospective, matched cohort study from health checkup data from 2000 to 2015. We identified 12,774 participants with abnormal renal function (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and used propensity score matching to identify 25,548 participants with normal renal function (eGFR ≥ 60). YLLs were estimated using the life expectancy differences between the abnormal and matched normal cohorts. Cox models were used to estimate the adjusted mortality risk. The estimated life expectancy of participants with proteinuria and eGFR < 60 was 26.24 years, with a 95 % confidence interval of (23.96, 29.36), 17.62 (16.37, 18.78), and 11.70 (11.02, 12.46) for age groups of 30 - 54, 55 - 64, and 65 - 79 years, respectively. The estimated YLLs of participants with proteinuria and eGFR < 60, as compared with the matched normal cohort, were 17.86 (13.41, 20.36), 12.55 (11.41, 13.78), and 8.31 (7.47, 9.13) years for the three age groups, respectively. The Cox model estimates of mortality hazard ratios of participants having proteinuria and eGFR < 60 against matched referents were 5.29 (3.97, 7.05), 3.99 (3.34, 4.75), and 3.05 (2.62, 3.55) for the three age groups, respectively. Abnormal renal function shortens life expectancy, particularly in patients with proteinuria and in younger adults. Active health management of renal function can reduce the disease burden.

Geographical pattern of minerals and its association with health disparities in the USA.

This study aimed to determine the common latent patterns of geographical distribution of health-related minerals across the USA and to evaluate the real-world cumulative effects of these patterns on overall population health. It was an ecological study using county-level data (3080 contiguous counties) on the concentrations of 14 minerals (i.e., aluminum, arsenic, calcium, copper, iron, lead, magnesium, manganese, mercury, phosphorus, selenium, sodium, titanium, zinc) in stream sediments (or surface soils), and the measurements of overall health including life expectancy at birth, age-specific mortality risks and cause-specific (summarized by 21 mutually exclusive groups) mortality rates. Latent class analysis (LCA) was employed to identify the common clusters of life expectancy-related minerals based on their concentration characteristics. Multivariate linear regression analyses were then conducted to examine the relationship between the LCA-derived clusters and the health measurements, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Five minerals (i.e., arsenic, calcium, selenium, sodium and zinc) were associated with life expectancy and were analyzed in LCA. Three clusters were determined across the USA, the 'common' (n = 2056, 66.8%), 'infertile' (n = 739, 24.0%) and 'plentiful' (n = 285, 9.3%) clusters. Residents in counties with the 'infertile' profile were associated with the shortest life expectancy, highest mortality risks at all ages, and highest mortality rates for many reasons including the top five leading causes of death: cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, neurological disorders, chronic respiratory conditions, and diabetes, urogenital, blood and endocrine diseases. Results remained statistically significant after confounding adjustment. Our study brings novel perspectives regarding environmental geochemistry to explain health disparities in the USA.