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3.
Pediatr Infect Dis J ; 41(12): 989-993, 2022 Dec 01.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2190916

Реферат

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variations as well as immune protection after previous infections and/or vaccination may have altered the incidence of multisystemic inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). We aimed to report an international time-series analysis of the incidence of MIS-C to determine if there was a shift in the regions or countries included into the study. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international, cross-sectional study. We collected the MIS-C incidence from the participant regions and countries for the period July 2020 to November 2021. We assessed the ratio between MIS-C cases and COVID-19 pediatric cases in children <18 years diagnosed 4 weeks earlier (average time for the temporal association observed in this disease) for the study period. We performed a binomial regression analysis for 8 participating sites [Bogotá (Colombia), Chile, Costa Rica, Lazio (Italy), Mexico DF, Panama, The Netherlands and Catalonia (Spain)]. RESULTS: We included 904 cases of MIS-C, among a reference population of 17,906,432 children. We estimated a global significant decrease trend ratio in MIS-C cases/COVID-19 diagnosed cases in the previous month ( P < 0.001). When analyzing separately each of the sites, Chile and The Netherlands maintained a significant decrease trend ( P < 0.001), but this ratio was not statistically significant for the rest of sites. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first international study describing a global reduction in the trend of the MIS-C incidence during the pandemic. COVID-19 vaccination and other factors possibly linked to the virus itself and/or community transmission may have played a role in preventing new MIS-C cases.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Child , Pandemics/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Cross-Sectional Studies , Incidence , COVID-19 Vaccines , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/epidemiology
4.
Lancet Respir Med ; 10(11): 1074-1085, 2022 11.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2184772

Реферат

BACKGROUND: In the UK, during the study period (April to July, 2021), all contacts of people with COVID-19 were required to self-isolate for 10 days, which had adverse impacts on individuals and society. Avoiding the need to self-isolate for those who remain uninfected would be beneficial. We investigated whether daily use of lateral flow devices (LFDs) to test for SARS-CoV-2, with removal of self-isolation for 24 h if negative, could be a safe alternative to self-isolation as a means to minimise onward transmission of the virus. METHODS: We conducted a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial in adult contacts identified by COVID-19 contact tracing in England. Consenting participants were randomly assigned to self-isolation (single PCR test, 10-day isolation) or daily contact testing (DCT; seven LFD tests, two PCR tests, no isolation if negative on LFD); participants from a single household were assigned to the same group. Participants were prospectively followed up, with the effect of each intervention on onward transmission established from routinely collected NHS Test and Trace contact tracing data for participants who tested PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period and tertiary cases arising from their contacts (ie, secondary contacts). The primary outcome of the study was the attack rate, the percentage of secondary contacts (close contacts of SARS-CoV-2-positive study participants) who became COVID-19 cases (tertiary cases) in each group. Attack rates were derived from Bernoulli regression models using Huber-White (robust) sandwich estimator clustered standard errors. Attack rates were adjusted for household exposure, vaccination status, and ability to work from home. The non-inferiority margin was 1·9%. The primary analysis was a modified intention-to-treat analysis excluding those who actively withdrew from the study as data from these participants were no longer held. This study is registered with the Research Registry (number 6809). Data collection is complete; analysis is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between April 29 and July 28, 2021, 54 923 eligible individuals were enrolled in the study, with final group allocations (following withdrawals) of 26 123 (52·6%) participants in the DCT group and 23 500 (47·4%) in the self-isolation group. Overall, 4694 participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR (secondary cases), 2364 (10·1%) in the self-isolation group and 2330 (8·9%) in the DCT group. Adjusted attack rates (among secondary contacts) were 7·5% in the self-isolation group and 6·3% in the DCT group (difference of -1·2% [95% CI -2·3 to -0·2]; significantly lower than the non-inferiority margin of 1·9%). INTERPRETATION: DCT with 24 h exemption from self-isolation for essential activities appears to be non-inferior to self-isolation. This study, which provided evidence for the UK Government's daily lateral flow testing policy for vaccinated contacts of COVID-19 cases, indicated that daily testing with LFDs could allow individuals to reduce the risk of onward transmission while minimising the adverse effects of self-isolation. Although contacts in England are no longer required to isolate, the findings will be relevant for future policy decisions around COVID-19 or other communicable infections. FUNDING: UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Contact Tracing , Incidence , Family Characteristics
5.
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 6(4): 304-314, 2021 04.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2184854

Реферат

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models-Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)-to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020-24 and cumulatively for the period 2020-50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). FINDINGS: Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414-902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1-0·2%) and 324-440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2-0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803-1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2-0·4%) and 678-881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4-0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%) in Australia, and 2844 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 1319 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 12-month disruption would result in 1619-3615 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·4-0·9%) and 1360-1762 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8-1·2%) in the Netherlands, 7140 additional diagnoses (relative increase 1·2%) and 3968 additional deaths (relative increase 2·0%) in Australia, and 5212 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 2366 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. Providing immediate catch-up screening could minimise the impact of the disruption, restricting the relative increase in colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 to less than 0·1% in all countries. A post-disruption decrease in participation could increase colorectal cancer incidence by 0·2-0·9% and deaths by 0·6-1·6% between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. INTERPRETATION: Although the projected effect of short-term disruption to colorectal cancer screening is modest, such disruption will have a marked impact on colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 attributable to missed screening. Thus, it is crucial that, if disrupted, screening programmes ensure participation rates return to previously observed rates and provide catch-up screening wherever possible, since this could mitigate the impact on colorectal cancer deaths. FUNDING: Cancer Council New South Wales, Health Canada, and Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis , Early Detection of Cancer , Occult Blood , Aged , Australia/epidemiology , Canada/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Netherlands/epidemiology
7.
Acta Paediatr ; 111(9): 1821-1822, 2022 Sep.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1919112
8.
Elife ; 92020 08 21.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2155740

Реферат

We conducted voluntary Covid-19 testing programmes for symptomatic and asymptomatic staff at a UK teaching hospital using naso-/oro-pharyngeal PCR testing and immunoassays for IgG antibodies. 1128/10,034 (11.2%) staff had evidence of Covid-19 at some time. Using questionnaire data provided on potential risk-factors, staff with a confirmed household contact were at greatest risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.82 [95%CI 3.45-6.72]). Higher rates of Covid-19 were seen in staff working in Covid-19-facing areas (22.6% vs. 8.6% elsewhere) (aOR 2.47 [1.99-3.08]). Controlling for Covid-19-facing status, risks were heterogenous across the hospital, with higher rates in acute medicine (1.52 [1.07-2.16]) and sporadic outbreaks in areas with few or no Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 intensive care unit staff were relatively protected (0.44 [0.28-0.69]), likely by a bundle of PPE-related measures. Positive results were more likely in Black (1.66 [1.25-2.21]) and Asian (1.51 [1.28-1.77]) staff, independent of role or working location, and in porters and cleaners (2.06 [1.34-3.15]).


Тема - темы
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Female , Hospitals, Teaching/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Risk , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Young Adult
9.
Elife ; 92020 08 24.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2155737

Реферат

A key unknown for SARS-CoV-2 is how asymptomatic infections contribute to transmission. We used a transmission model with asymptomatic and presymptomatic states, calibrated to data on disease onset and test frequency from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic infections to transmission. The model estimated that 74% (70-78%, 95% posterior interval) of infections proceeded asymptomatically. Despite intense testing, 53% (51-56%) of infections remained undetected, most of them asymptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals were the source for 69% (20-85%) of all infections. The data did not allow identification of the infectiousness of asymptomatic infections, however low ranges (0-25%) required a net reproduction number for individuals progressing through presymptomatic and symptomatic stages of at least 15. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections may contribute substantially to transmission. Control measures, and models projecting their potential impact, need to look beyond the symptomatic cases if they are to understand and address ongoing transmission.


Тема - темы
Asymptomatic Diseases , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Ships/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , Calibration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Humans , Incidence , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
10.
Hypertension ; 76(5): 1350-1367, 2020 11.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2153223

Реферат

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is associated with significant morbidity and mortality throughout the world, predominantly due to lung and cardiovascular injury. The virus responsible for COVID-19-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-gains entry into host cells via ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2). ACE2 is a primary enzyme within the key counter-regulatory pathway of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), which acts to oppose the actions of Ang (angiotensin) II by generating Ang-(1-7) to reduce inflammation and fibrosis and mitigate end organ damage. As COVID-19 spans multiple organ systems linked to the cardiovascular system, it is imperative to understand clearly how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 may affect the multifaceted RAS. In addition, recognition of the role of ACE2 and the RAS in COVID-19 has renewed interest in its role in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease in general. We provide researchers with a framework of best practices in basic and clinical research to interrogate the RAS using appropriate methodology, especially those who are relatively new to the field. This is crucial, as there are many limitations inherent in investigating the RAS in experimental models and in humans. We discuss sound methodological approaches to quantifying enzyme content and activity (ACE, ACE2), peptides (Ang II, Ang-[1-7]), and receptors (types 1 and 2 Ang II receptors, Mas receptor). Our goal is to ensure appropriate research methodology for investigations of the RAS in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and COVID-19 to ensure optimal rigor and reproducibility and appropriate interpretation of results from these investigations.


Тема - темы
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Hypertension/epidemiology , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A/metabolism , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Renin-Angiotensin System/physiology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/metabolism , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 , Blood Pressure Determination/methods , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hypertension/physiopathology , Incidence , Male , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Prognosis , Research Design , Risk Assessment , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology
11.
Rev Diabet Stud ; 18(3): 152-156, 2022 Sep 28.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2141077

Реферат

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated glycemic control among T1DM pediatric patients attending the endocrinology pediatrics clinics at King Fahd Hospital of the University (KFHU) prior to and during COVID-19 restraining regulations. In addition, we assessed the trends and variations in the incidence of T1DM during 2017-2021, including the COVID-19 years by identifying newly diagnosed patients presenting to pediatrics emergency department (ED) in KFHU. METHODS: To estimate the effect of COVID-19 on the incidence of T1DM, we identified newly diagnosed cases of T1DM among pediatric patients attending the ED during the years 2017- 2021. The participants' data were collected through electronic medical records. Information collected included patient age, sex, and HbA1c readings. Three HbA1c readings of interest that were defined and collected are pre-COVID reading, in-COVID reading, and post-COVID reading. RESULTS: The difference of female participants' readings was statistically non-significant (Z= -0.416, p = 0.678), with a pre- and post-COVID median of 10.70 (Q1= 9.00, Q3= 12.15), and 10.50 (Q1= 8.80, Q3= 12.35), respectively. In contrast, the difference was statistically significant among male participants (Z= -2.334, p = 0.02), with a pre- and post-COVID median of 10.20 (Q1= 8.70, Q3= 11.80), and 10.65 (Q1= 9.00, Q3= 12.70), respectively. There was a statistically significant increase in HbA1c of persons > 11 years old (Z= -2.471, p= 0.013), with a pre- and post-COVID median of 10.40 (Q1= 9.00, Q3= 12.10), and 10.90 (Q1= 9.00, Q3= 12.60), respectively. Conversely, persons ≤ 11 years old showed no statistically significant change in HbA1c (Z= -.457, p= 0.648), with a pre- and post-COVID median of 10.45 (Q1= 8.70, Q3= 11.85), and 10.20 (Q1= 8.40, Q3= 12.075), respectively. Disregarding any influence of time, the effect of sex showed no statistically significant difference in HbA1c between males and females [F (1,125) = 0.008, p = 0.930]. Meanwhile, the age effect on HbA1c, regardless of time influence, was statistically significant [F (1,125) = 4.993, p = 0.027]. There was no statistically significant interaction between time and sex on HbA1c levels [F (1.74, 217) = 0.096, p = 0.883] and between age and time [F (3.92,289.57) = 1.693, p = 0.190]. CONCLUSIONS: The number of visits to healthcare facilities dropped significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the rate of newly diagnosed T1DM increased. There was a variable effect on HbA1c levels of those patients, which suggests that each demographic group in the population might have been affected differently by the pandemic. Future research should determine factors associated with better glycemic control and measures to sustain these changes the pandemic might have created.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Child , Humans , Male , Female , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Glycated Hemoglobin A , Incidence , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/complications , Glycemic Control , Pandemics , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Hospitals, Teaching
12.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 887, 2022 Nov 26.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2139176

Реферат

BACKGROUND: Persons in Pakistan have suffered from various infectious diseases over the years, each impacted by various factors including climate change, seasonality, geopolitics, and resource availability. The COVID-19 pandemic is another complicating factor, with changes in the reported incidence of endemic infectious diseases and related syndromes under surveillance. METHODS: We assessed the monthly incidence of eight important infectious diseases/syndromes: acute upper respiratory infection (AURI), viral hepatitis, malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, typhoid fever, measles, and neonatal tetanus (NNT), before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Administrative health data of monthly reported cases of these diseases/syndromes from all five provinces/regions of Pakistan for a 3-year interval (March 2018-February 2021) were analyzed using an interrupted time series approach. Reported monthly incidence for each infectious disease agent or syndrome and COVID-19 were subjected to time series visualization. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between each infectious disease/syndrome and COVID-19 was calculated and median case numbers of each disease before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic were compared using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Subsequently, a generalized linear negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the association between reported cases of each disease and COVID-19. RESULTS: In late February 2020, concurrent with the start of COVID-19, in all provinces, there were decreases in the reported incidence of the following diseases: AURI, pneumonia, hepatitis, diarrhea, typhoid, and measles. In contrast, the incidence of COVID was negatively associated with the reported incidence of NNT only in Punjab and Sindh, but not in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Balochistan, or Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) & Gilgit Baltistan (GB). Similarly, COVID-19 was associated with a lowered incidence of malaria in Punjab, Sindh, and AJK & GB, but not in KPK and Balochistan. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was associated with a decreased reported incidence of most infectious diseases/syndromes studied in most provinces of Pakistan. However, exceptions included NNT in KPK, Balochistan and AJK & GB, and malaria in KPK and Balochistan. This general trend was attributed to a combination of resource diversion, misdiagnosis, misclassification, misinformation, and seasonal patterns of each disease.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Malaria , Measles , Pneumonia , Respiratory Tract Infections , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Incidence , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pakistan/epidemiology , Pandemics , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Syndrome , Malaria/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia/epidemiology , Measles/epidemiology , Diarrhea/epidemiology
13.
Oxid Med Cell Longev ; 2022: 7692215, 2022.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2138248

Реферат

Stroke is the most common cause of epilepsy and ultimately leads to a decrease in the quality of life of those affected. Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes can both lead to poststroke epilepsy (PSE). Significant risk factors for PSE include age < 65age less than 65 years, stroke severity measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), cortical involvement, and genetic factors such as TRPM6 polymorphism. The diagnosis of PSE is made by using imaging modalities, blood biomarkers, and prognostic criteria. Electroencephalography (EEG) is currently the gold standard to diagnose PSE, while new combinations of modalities are being tested to increase diagnostic specificity. This literature review uncovers a newly found mechanism for the pathology of poststroke epilepsy. The pathogenesis of early-onset and late-onset is characterized by sequelae of neuronal cellular hypoxia and disruption of the blood-brain barrier, respectively. Interleukin-6 is responsible for increasing the activity of glial cells, causing gliosis and hyperexcitability of neurons. Epinephrine, high-mobility group protein B1, downregulation of CD32, and upregulation of HLA-DR impact the pathology of poststroke epilepsy by inhibiting the normal neuronal immune response. Decreased levels of neuropeptide Y, a neurotransmitter, act through multiple unique mechanisms, such as inhibiting intracellular Ca2+ accumulation and acting as an anti-inflammatory, also implemented in the worsening progression of poststroke epilepsy. Additionally, CA1 hippocampal resonant neurons that increase theta oscillation are associated with poststroke epilepsy. Hypertensive small vessel disease may also have an implication in the temporal lobe epilepsy by causing occult microinfarctions. Furthermore, this review highlights the potential use of statins as primary prophylaxis against PSE, with multiple studies demonstrating a reduction in incidence using statins alone, statins in combination with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs), and statins with aspirin. The evidence strongly suggests that the second generation AEDs are a superior treatment method for PSE. Data from numerous studies demonstrate their relative lack of significant drug interactions, increased tolerability, and potential superiority in maintaining seizure-free status.


Тема - темы
Epilepsy , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors , Stroke , Humans , Aged , Incidence , Quality of Life , Epilepsy/drug therapy , Seizures/drug therapy , Anticonvulsants/therapeutic use , Stroke/complications , Stroke/drug therapy , Stroke/epidemiology , Risk Factors
14.
J Healthc Eng ; 2022: 4864920, 2022.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2138235

Реферат

COVID-19 continues to pose a dangerous global health threat, as cases grow rapidly and deaths increase day by day. This increasing phenomenon does not only affect economic policy but also international policy around the world. In this paper, Pakistan daily death cases of COVID-19, from February 25, 2020, to March 23, 2022, have been modeled using the long-established autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the machine learning multilayer perceptron (MLP) model. The most befitting model is selected based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Values of the key performance indicator (KPI) showed that the MLP model outperformed the ARIMA model. The MLP model with 20 hidden layers, which emerged as the overall most apt model, was used to predict future daily COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan to enable policymakers and health professionals to put in place systematic measures to reduce death cases. We encourage the Government of Pakistan to intensify its vaccination campaign and encourage everyone to get vaccinated.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Humans , Incidence , Models, Statistical , Neural Networks, Computer , Forecasting
15.
Comput Intell Neurosci ; 2022: 4307708, 2022.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2138230

Реферат

The COVID-19 virus continues to generate waves of infections around the world. With major areas in developing countries still lagging behind in vaccination campaigns, the risk of new variants that can cause re-infections worldwide makes the monitoring and forecasting of the evolution of the virus a high priority. Having accurate models able to forecast the incidence of the spread of the virus provides help to policymakers and health professionals in managing the scarce resources in an optimal way. In this paper, a new machine learning model is proposed to forecast the spread of the virus one-week ahead in a geographic area which combines mobility and COVID-19 incidence data. The area is divided into zones or districts according to the location of the COVID-19 measuring points. A traffic-driven mobility estimate among adjacent districts is proposed to capture the spatial spread of the virus. Traffic-driven mobility in adjacent districts will be used together with COVID-19 incidence data to feed a new deep learning LSTM-based model which will extract patterns from mobility-modulated COVID-19 incidence spatiotemporal data in order to optimize one-week ahead estimations. The model is trained and validated with open data available for the city of Madrid (Spain) for 3 different validation scenarios. A baseline model based on previous literature able to extract temporal patterns in COVID-19 incidence time series is also trained with the same dataset. The results show that the proposed model, based on the combination of traffic and COVID-19 incidence data, is able to outperform the baseline model in all the validation scenarios.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Humans , Incidence , COVID-19/epidemiology , Machine Learning , Forecasting , Cities
16.
Transplantation ; 106(12): 2426-2434, 2022 Dec 01.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2135883

Реферат

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTr) are at increased risk for severe disease from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with non-SOTr. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study between March 1, 2020, and March, 30, 2021, in an integrated healthcare system with 4.3 million members aged ≥18 y including 5126 SOTr. Comparisons in COVID-19 mortality, hospitalization, and incidence were made between SOTr and non-SOTr, and between different SOTr organs. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization. RESULTS: There were 600 SOTr (kidney, liver, heart, and lung) with COVID-19. Per person-year incidence of COVID-19 among SOTr was 10.0% versus 7.6% among non-SOTr (P < 0.0001). Compared with uninfected SOTr, infected SOTr were older (57.1 ± 14.0 versus 45.7 ± 17.9 y, P < 0.001), predominantly Hispanic/Latino (58.8% versus 38.6%, P < 0.0001), hypertensive (77.0% versus 23.8%; P < 0.0001), and diabetic (49.6% versus 13.0%; P = 0.0009). Compared with non-SOTr, infected SOTr had higher hospitalization (39.5% versus 6.0%; P < 0.0001), intensive care unit admission (29.1% versus 15.5%; P < 0.0001), and mortality (14.7% versus 1.8%; P < 0.0001) from COVID-19. Older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.10), male gender (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.11-2.86), and higher body mass index (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09; P = 0.047) were associated with increased mortality from COVID-19, whereas race, diabetes, and number/type of immunosuppressive medications were not. Among the different SOTr, COVID-19 mortality risk was lowest in liver recipients (HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.16-0.73) and highest in lung recipients (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 0.68-4.42). CONCLUSIONS: SOTr have higher rates of hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19 compared with the general population. Among the SOTr, the incidence and outcomes were distinct among different transplantation types.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus , Organ Transplantation , Humans , Male , Incidence , COVID-19/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Organ Transplantation/adverse effects , Cohort Studies , Risk Factors , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus/etiology
17.
Semin Oncol ; 49(5): 363-370, 2022 Oct.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133716

Реферат

PURPOSE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a constant health threat since its emergence. Amongst risk factors proposed, a diagnosis of cancer has been worrisome. We report the impact of cancer and other risk factors in US Veterans receiving care at Veterans Administration (VA) Hospitals, their adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for infection and death, and report on the impact of vaccines on the incidence and severity of COVID-19 infections in Veterans without/with cancer. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of US Veterans without/with cancer by mining VA COVID-19 Shared Data Resource (CSDR) data using the VA Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). Our observation period includes index dates from 14DEC2020 to 25JAN2022, encompassing both the delta and omicron waves in the US. RESULTS: We identified 915,928 Veterans, 24% of whom were African Americans who had undergone COVID testing-688,541 were and 227,387 were not vaccinated. 157,072 had a cancer diagnosis in the preceding two years. Age emerged as the major risk factor, with gender, BMI, and (Elixhauser) comorbidity contributing less. Among veterans with solid tumors other than lung cancer, risks of infection and death within 60 days were comparable to Veterans without cancer. However, those with hematologic malignancies fared worse. Vaccination was highly effective across all cancer cohorts; the respective rates of infection and death after infection were 8% and 5% among the vaccinated compared to 47% and 10% in the unvaccinated. Amongst vaccinated, increased risk of infection was noted in both, Veterans with hematologic malignancy treated with chemotherapy (HR, 2.993, P < 0.0001) or targeted therapies (HR, 1.781, P < 0.0001), and in solid tumors treated with either chemotherapy (HR 2.328, 95%CI 2.075-2.611, P < 0.0001) or targeted therapies (HR 1.328, P < 0.0001) when compared to those not on treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Risk for COVID-19 infection and death from infection vary based on cancer type and therapies administered. Importantly and encouragingly, the duration of protection from infection following vaccination in Veterans with a diagnosis of cancer was remarkably like those without a cancer diagnosis. Veterans with hematologic malignancies are especially vulnerable, with lower vaccine effectiveness (VE).


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Hematologic Neoplasms , Vaccines , Veterans , Humans , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Incidence , Cohort Studies , Prospective Studies , COVID-19 Testing
18.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 20364, 2022 Nov 27.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133644

Реферат

This study undertook to determine the changes in the numbers of outpatient visits for various ophthalmic diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with before. The monthly outpatient visits for 14 common ophthalmic diseases were enumerated based on the ICD-10 codes in Korean National Health Insurance Service data. The differences in the mean outpatient visits and disease variance 'before' and 'during COVID-19' were calculated. Subsequently, subgroup analyses according to age and sex were performed. The number of outpatient visits for conjunctivitis, scleritis & episcleritis, keratitis, cataract, diabetic retinopathy, and traumatic ophthalmic disease were lower during than before COVID-19 (all P < 0.001). The lower numbers of outpatient visits for ophthalmic disorders during COVID-19 were consistent across the age and sex subgroups. All ophthalmic diseases other than endophthalmitis showed no change of variation 'during' relative to 'before' COVID-19. In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the ophthalmic outpatient visits decreased for infectious and inflammatory diseases, screening diseases, and traumatic diseases. However, COVID-19 is not considered to have had a significant effect on variation.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Endophthalmitis , Eye Diseases , Humans , Incidence , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Eye Diseases/epidemiology
19.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 20191, 2022 Nov 23.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133616

Реферат

Emerging evidence suggests that coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) may lead to a wide range of post-acute sequelae outcomes, including new onset of diabetes. The aim of this meta-analysis was to estimate the incidence of newly diagnosed diabetes in survivors of COVID-19. We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and the World Health Organization Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease and clinical trial registries for studies reporting the association of COVID-19 and diabetes. Search dates were December 2019-October 16, 2022. Two investigators independently assessed studies for inclusion. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated the effect of COVID-19 on incident diabetes by random-effects meta-analyses using the generic inverse variance method. We identified 8 eligible studies consisting of 4,270,747 COVID-19 patients and 43,203,759 controls. Median age was 43 years (interquartile range, IQR 35-49), and 50% were female. COVID-19 was associated with a 66% higher risk of incident diabetes (risk ratio, 1.66; 95% CI 1.38; 2.00). The risk was not modified by age, sex, or study quality. The median risk of bias assessment was 7. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, COVID-19 was associated with higher risk for developing new onset diabetes among survivors. Active monitoring of glucose dysregulation after recovery from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is warranted.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus , Humans , Female , Adult , Male , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Incidence , MEDLINE
20.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 7122, 2022 Nov 19.
Статья в английский | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133426

Реферат

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in changes in productivity and daily life patterns, and as a result electricity consumption (EC) has also shifted. In this paper, we construct estimates of EC changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., including total EC and residential EC during the initial two months of the pandemic. The total and residential data on the state level were broken down into the county level, and then metropolitan level EC estimates were aggregated from the counties included in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This work shows that the reduction in total EC is related to the shares of certain industries in an MSA, whereas regardless of the incidence level or economic structure, the residential sector shows a trend of increasing EC across the continental U.S. Since the MSAs account for 86% of the total population and 87% of the total EC of the continental U.S., the analytical result in this paper can provide important guidelines for future social-economic crises.


Тема - темы
COVID-19 , Humans , Urban Population , COVID-19/epidemiology , Incidence , Electricity
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