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The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.
Lai, Chao-Chih; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Jen, Hsiao-Hsuan; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi.
  • Lai CC; Emergency Department of Taipei City Hospital, Ren-Ai Branch, Taipei, 106 Taiwan.
  • Hsu CY; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan.
  • Jen HH; Master of Public Health Program, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 100 Taiwan.
  • Yen AM; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan.
  • Chan CC; Master of Public Health Program, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 100 Taiwan.
  • Chen HH; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 533, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei, 100 Taiwan.
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess ; 35(7): 1319-1333, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1052979
ABSTRACT
The outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship provides an unprecedented opportunity to estimate its original transmissibility with basic reproductive number (R0) and the effectiveness of containment measures. We developed an ordinary differential equation-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model with Bayesian underpinning to estimate the main parameter of R0 determined by transmission coefficients, incubation period, and the recovery rate. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method was used to tackle the parameters of uncertainty resulting from the outbreak of COVID-19 given a small cohort of the cruise ship. The extended stratified SEIR model was also proposed to elucidate the heterogeneity of transmission route by the level of deck with passengers and crews. With the application of the overall model, R0 was estimated as high as 5.70 (95% credible interval 4.23-7.79). The entire epidemic period without containment measurements was approximately 47 days and reached the peak one month later after the index case. The partial containment measure reduced 63% (95% credible interval 60-66%) infected passengers. With the deck-specific SEIR model, the heterogeneity of R0 estimates by each deck was noted. The estimated R0 figures were 5.18 for passengers (5-14 deck), mainly from the within-deck transmission, and 2.46 for crews (2-4 deck), mainly from the between-deck transmission. Modelling the dynamic of COVID-19 on the cruise ship not only provides an insight into timely evacuation and early isolation and quarantine but also elucidates the relative contributions of different transmission modes on the cruise ship though the deck-stratified SEIR model. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s00477-020-01968-w).
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess Year: 2021 Document Type: Article