Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States.

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.