Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.
PLoS One
; 16(6): e0252938, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1278182
ABSTRACT
This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Economic Development
/
Quarantine
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Policy
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Chile
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0252938
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