Comparing the process of early control of government between H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai in 2013 and COVID-19 in Wuhan in 2019 / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

[Objective] To analyze and judge the possibility of early control in Shanghai if COVID-19 begins in Shanghai. [Methods] Compare the process of early control of H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai in 2013 and Wuhan COVID-19 in 2019. The early incidence data of Korean COVID-19 was simulated and analyzed to predict whether the medical resources needed in Shanghai were available. [Results] (1) It would take 22 days from the first case to the government's emergency response in terms of Shanghai. (2) It is estimated that there would be 602-763 patients with cumulative onset and onset after incubation period. (3) At least 500 beds of infectious diseases can be allocated in Shanghai in case of emergency. Through adding beds and resources reallocation in the whole city, patients can be fully admitted and treated. [Conclusion] If COVID-19 epidemic occurs in Shanghai, early control is possible.