COVID-19 forecasts via stock market indicators.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 13197, 2022 08 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1967616
ABSTRACT
We propose that technical analysis tools developed to give buy/sell signals in asset trading can be applied to analyze time series datasets in the natural sciences, and we show this explicitly for a study of WHO COVID-19 data. Notably, reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases in terms of candlesticks, we are able to apply some of the most popular stock market technical indicators to obtain predictive power over the course of the pandemics. By providing a quantitative assessment of MACD, RSI, and candlestick analyses, we show their statistical significance in making predictions for both stock market data and WHO COVID-19 data. In particular, we show the utility of this novel approach by considering the identification of the beginnings of subsequent waves of the pandemic. Finally, our new methods are used to assess whether current health policies are impacting the growth in new COVID-19 cases.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-15897-x
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