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Household transmission but without the community-acquired outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan.
Hsu, Chen-Yang; Wang, Jann-Tay; Huang, Kuo-Chin; Fan, Antoria Chiao-Hsin; Yeh, Yen-Po; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng.
  • Hsu CY; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Daichung Hospital, Miaoli, Taiwan.
  • Wang JT; Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University, Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Huang KC; Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Fan AC; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Yeh YP; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Changhua County Public Health Bureau, Changhua, Taiwan.
  • Chen SL; School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Research Center of Cancer Translational Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: samchen@tmu.edu.tw.
J Formos Med Assoc ; 120 Suppl 1: S38-S45, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1972178
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Household transmission is responsible for the subsequent outbreak of community-acquired COVID-19. The aim of this study was to elucidate the household transmission mode and to further estimate effective and basic reproductive number with and without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

METHODS:

A total of 26 households with 39 family clusters between January, 2020 and February, 2021 in Taiwan were enrolled for analysis. The Becker's chain binomial model was used to analyze the probabilities of being infected and escaping from SARS-COV-2 before and after January 1st, 2021, which were further converted to estimating basic reproductive numbers in the absence of NPIs. The likelihood of leading to the subsequent community-acquired outbreak given NPIs was further assessed.

RESULTS:

The secondary attack rate was 46.2%. Given the saturated Greenwood model selected as the best fitted model, the probability of being infected and escaping from COVID-19 within household was estimated as 44.4% (95% CI 5.0%-53.7%) and 55.7% (95% CI 46.3%-65.0%), respectively. In the second period of early 2021, the infected probability was increased to 58.3% (95% CI 12.7%-90.0%) and the escape probability was lowered to 41.7% (95% CI 0.0%-86.9%). The corresponding basic reproductive numbers (R0) increased from 4.29 in the first period to 6.73 in the second period without NPIs. However, none of subsequent community-acquired outbreak was noted in Taiwan given very effective NPIs in both periods.

CONCLUSION:

The proposed method and results are useful for designing household-specific containment measures and NPIs to stamp out a large-scale community-acquired outbreak as demonstrated in Taiwan.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Formos Med Assoc Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.jfma.2021.04.021

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: J Formos Med Assoc Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.jfma.2021.04.021