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Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study.
Matrajt, Laura; Brown, Elizabeth R; Cohen, Myron S; Dimitrov, Dobromir; Janes, Holly.
  • Matrajt L; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA. laurama@fredhutch.org.
  • Brown ER; Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA. laurama@fredhutch.org.
  • Cohen MS; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA.
  • Dimitrov D; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
  • Janes H; Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 683, 2022 Aug 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2214536
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease.

METHODS:

In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries with different demographic structure and current levels of vaccination coverage Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium. We analyzed antiviral effects on reducing hospitalization and death, and potential antiviral effects on reducing transmission. For each country, we varied daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) and antiviral effect in reducing transmission (AVT).

RESULTS:

Irrespective of location and AVT, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic adult infections (20% DTIR) prevented the majority of COVID-19 deaths, and recruiting 6% of all adult symptomatic infections daily reduced mortality by over 20% in all countries. Furthermore, our model projected that targeting antiviral treatment to the oldest age group (65 years old and older, DTIR of 20%) can prevent over 30% of deaths. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment (as soon as possible after inception of infection) is needed to mitigate transmission, preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started 3 to 5 days after symptoms onset). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment as the vaccination rate increases, antivirals have a larger relative impact on population transmission. Finally, our model projects that even in highly vaccinated populations, adding antiviral treatment can be extremely helpful to mitigate COVID-19 deaths.

CONCLUSIONS:

These results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / COVID-19 Drug Treatment Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Adult / Aged / Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-022-07639-1

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / COVID-19 Drug Treatment Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Adult / Aged / Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-022-07639-1