Development of a model-inference system for estimating epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

ABSTRACT

To support COVID-19 pandemic planning, we develop a model-inference system to estimate epidemiological properties of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using case and mortality data while accounting for under-ascertainment, disease seasonality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass-vaccination. Applying this system to study three variants of concern, we estimate that B.1.1.7 has a 46.6% (95% CI 32.3-54.6%) transmissibility increase but nominal immune escape from protection induced by prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 has a 32.4% (95% CI 14.6-48.0%) transmissibility increase and 61.3% (95% CI 42.6-85.8%) immune escape; and P.1 has a 43.3% (95% CI 30.3-65.3%) transmissibility increase and 52.5% (95% CI 0-75.8%) immune escape. Model simulations indicate that B.1.351 and P.1 could outcompete B.1.1.7 and lead to increased infections. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing the spread of variants of concern, via continued preventive measures, prompt mass-vaccination, continued vaccine efficacy monitoring, and possible updating of vaccine formulations to ensure high efficacy.