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The economic dynamics and population change of Australia's regional cities
AHURI Final Report ; (385)2022.
Artigo em Inglês | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2268822
ABSTRACT
Key points This analysis is based on data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses, and does not take into account the redistributions and changes that may have occurred with COVID-19. This report can be seen as providing a baseline for subsequent analysis of the changes that have occurred and continue to occur, identifying the trends and conditions across regional Australia's urban centres prior to 2020. Populations in regional urban centres are growing overall—however, this growth is differentiated. Regional urban centre population growth is associated with proximity to major cities, and to coastal locations. Regional urban centre population decline is associated with remoteness and exposure to the resource economy. Capital cities are the main source of migration to regional urban centres, principally coastal and satellite centres with regional-to-regional-centre migration highly self-contained. International migration follows similar distribution. Commuting between regional centres and proximate capital cities increased over 2011–2016, indicating increased peri-metropolitan dependency on metropolitan interactions. Employment growth is associated with population growth, particularly for the larger metropolitan satellite and coastal regional cities—however, this is also associated with lower wage growth due to the employment mix. Health, community service, construction, hospitality and accommodation increased their share of regional employment. Industries associated with agglomeration economies are concentrating in fewer urban centres, while those associated with population services are becoming more dispersed. National economic growth factors appear to expert greater influence on employment growth in regional urban centres, while industry factors exert very limited influence. Regional effects exert greater influence than industry effects, although these are unevenly distributed. In 135 of 198 cases, a regional urban centre exhibits employment growth along with its surrounding functional economic region. For 33 regional urban centres there is positive divergence, while for 25 there is negative divergence. Four regional urban centres are declining within a declining functional economic region. Factors associated with stronger employment growth include employment factors, industry factors (especially those dependent on population growth), while income growth was less associated with employment growth. Population change exerted a strong influence on employment growth, as did human capital factors. Housing market (i.e. price) growth is strongly associated with population growth, while locational factors exhibited low associations. Cluster analysis identified nine distinctive regional urban centre groups metro-satellites;large regional cities;medium growth cities;regional service centres;ageing population centres;agricultural centres;mining centres;industrial centres, and northern Queensland centres. Policy development should consider the following Policy and planning measures to address the phenomenon of growth in metropolitan satellite regional urban centres, and the need to ensure coherent population, housing and employment distribution and linkages. Coordinated economic and social development approaches to emerging low-income service economies in coastal regional urban centres. Long-term transition planning to address resource-dependent regional urban centres facing cyclical economic changes based on the labour intensity of construction relative to ongoing economic activity. Opportunities and mechanisms to leverage high-wage economic development from existing regional city industry clusters. Opportunities and mechanisms for regional spatial coordination of fiscal policy to optimise development of high-wage employment in suitable regional urban centres. The study Purpose The contribution of regional urban centres to Australia's economic and population growth has been a topic of growing policy interest in the past two decades, as a result of rapid growth in the major cities and concerns for parts of regiona Australia that have experienced population decline. Associated with these trends is the distribution of economic activity and employment—particularly as traditional regional strengths such as agriculture, manufacturing and mining have declined as sources of employment in recent decades. Over the same period, metropolitan areas have prospered because of concentrations of high-skill, high-wage knowledge work, indicating diverging regional fortunes as a result of wider economic trends. The purpose of this research is to investigate patterns and dynamics of population, migration and economic change in Australian regional urban centres 2011–2016. The research is principally an empirically focused investigation identifying patterns and dynamic processes of regional change using advanced spatial analytical techniques, but provides an information base that will support future policy development efforts. Inquiry This research is part of a wider AHURI Inquiry into population growth in Australia's smaller cities. The Inquiry asks two overarching questions First, what is the capacity of Australia's smaller cities to assist in managing national population growth, including international and national migration? Second, which policy instruments and programs are most likely to redirect population movements to these locations? Study This research investigates two overarching questions related to the Inquiry How can we differentiate Australia's regional urban centres according to economic profile, population trajectory, industry structure and geography? What are the current mobility and settlement patterns of migrants, including those arriving from other parts of Australia and from other nations, across these smaller cities? Three further research questions are posed by this project 1. How can a typology of smaller cities assist to understand their role in regional, state and national economies? 2. How are Australia's regional urban centres differentiated in terms of economic profile, population trajectory and industry structure? 3. What demographic, economic and spatial factors are associated with economic and population growth, and what attributes are associated with better economic performance of regional urban centres? Approach and methods For Research question 1 the project undertakes longitudinal measures of social, demographic and industry change in regional cities 2011–2016 using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census data. Next, flow analysis and mapping of migration is applied to identify key migration patterns. Migration flows are used to construct migration regions via modularity analysis. Similar techniques are used to identify journey to work flows from which functional economic regions are constructed. Shift share of employment change and location quotient analysis of employment is used to understand economic change and industry structure. For Research question 2, to understand how Australia's regional urban centres are differentiated the project applies hierarchical cluster and discriminant analysis to construct a typology of regional urban centres. This is based on a combination of economic, demographic and geographic factors. These are compiled into summary data and descriptive explanations. For Research question 3 the study applies structural equation modelling (SEM) to identify the relationships between economic, social and demographic factors affecting population change and economic growth in regional urban centres. Key findings Differentiating Australia's regional urban centres Australia's regional urban centres are heterogeneous in terms of size, location within the Australian continent and settlement structures, level of employment, industrial mix and degree of interaction with regional, metropolitan, national and international economic processes and dynamics. In 2016, there were 198 Australian regional urban centres that had populations greater than 5,000 residents. Most are experiencing population growth. However this growth is differentiated across a range of factors, including t e existing size of the centre location relative to the coast location relative to an existing major capital city. A small number of regional urban centres are experiencing population decline. These centres are largely associated with the resource economy. They are typically positioned in remote locations in Australia. Migration Migration is a major factor in population change within regional urban centres. Migration patterns are clearly structured at the regional scale, with distinct geographies of intra-regional movement that include discernible levels of self-containment. There is a sizeable phenomenon of major city to regional urban centre migration, especially in the south-east of Australia. Beyond the major metropolitan zones, there are larger internally connected migration regions, which often involving movement between adjacent regional urban centres. Some regional urban centres lose and receive populations across long distances. For example, the Northern Territory (NT) operates as a single migration region, partly because of its relatively small population and large scale—although the volumes of movement are relatively small. © Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Limited 2022.
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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Bases de dados de organismos internacionais Base de dados: Scopus Idioma: Inglês Revista: AHURI Final Report Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Artigo

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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Bases de dados de organismos internacionais Base de dados: Scopus Idioma: Inglês Revista: AHURI Final Report Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Artigo