COVID infection rates, clinical outcomes, and racial/ethnic and gender disparities before and after Omicron emerged in the US (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalizations are rising in the US and other countries after the emergence of the Omicron variant. Currently, data on infection rates, severity and racial/ethnic and gender disparities from Omicron in the US is limited. MethodWe performed a retrospective cohort study of a large, geographically diverse database of patient electronic health records (EHRs) in the US. The study population comprised 881,473 patients who contracted SARS-CoV-2 infection for the first time between 9/1/2021-1/16/2022, including 147,964 patients infected when Omicron predominated (Omicron cohort), 633,581 when Delta predominated (Delta cohort) and another 99,928 infected when the Delta predominated but just before the Omicron variant was detected in the US (Delta-2 cohort). We examined monthly incidence rates of COVID-19 infections stratified by age groups, gender, race and ethnicity, compared severe clinical outcomes including emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and mechanical ventilation use between propensity-score matched Omicron and Delta cohorts stratified by age groups (0-4, 5-17, 18-64 and [≥] 65 years), and examined racial/ethnic and gender differences in severe clinical outcomes. FindingsAmong 147,964 infected patients in the Omicron cohort (average age 39.1 years), 56.7% were female, 2.4% Asian, 21.1% Black, 6.2% Hispanic, and 51.8% White. The monthly incidence rate of COVID infections (new cases per 1000 persons per day) was 0.5-0.7 when Delta predominated, and rapidly increased to 3.8-5.2 when Omicron predominated. In January 2022, the infection rate was highest in children under 5 years (11.0) among all age groups, higher in Black than in White patients (14.0 vs. 3.8), and higher in Hispanic than in non-Hispanic patients (8.9 vs. 3.1). After propensity-score matching for demographics, socio-economic determinants of health, comorbidities and medications, risks for severe clinical outcomes in the Omicron cohort were significantly lower than in the Delta cohort ED visits 10.2% vs. 14.6% (risk ratio or RR 0.70 [0.68-0.71]); hospitalizations 2.6% vs. 4.4% (RR 0.58 [0.55-0.60]); ICU admissions 0.47% vs. 1.00% (RR 0.47 [0.43-0.51]); mechanical ventilation 0.08% vs. 0.3% (RR 0.25 [0.20-0.31]). Similar reduction in disease severity was observed for all age groups. There were significant racial/ethnic and gender disparities in severe clinical outcomes in the Omicron cohort, with Black, Hispanic patients having more ED visits and ICU admissions than White and non-Hispanic patients, respectively and women had fewer hospitalization and ICU admission than men. InterpretationThe incidence rate of COVID infection during the omicron predominant period (prevalence >92%) was 6-8 times higher than during the Delta predominant period that preceded it consistent with greater infectivity. The incidence rate was highest among those less than 5 years of age, and in Black and Hispanic patients. COVID infections occurring when the Omicron predominated were associated with significantly less frequent severe outcomes than in matched patients when the Delta variant predominated. There were significant racial, ethnic and gender disparities in severe clinical outcomes, with Black and Hispanic patients and men disproportionally impacted.