Imported SARS-COV-2 Variants of Concern Drove Spread of Infections Across Kenya During the Second Year of the Pandemic (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background. Using classical and genomic epidemiology, we tracked the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya over 23 months to determine the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on its progression. Methods. SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and testing data were obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health, collected daily from 306 health facilities. COVID-19-associated fatality data were also obtained from these health facilities and communities. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing were carried out on 1241 specimens. Results. Over the pandemic duration (March 2020 - January 2022) Kenya experienced five waves characterized by attack rates (AR) of between 65.4 and 137.6 per 100,000 persons, and intra-wave case fatality ratios (CFR) averaging 3.5%, two-fold higher than the national average COVID-19 associated CFR. The first two waves that occurred before emergence of global variants of concerns (VoC) had lower AR (65.4 and 118.2 per 100,000). Waves 3, 4, and 5 that occurred during the second year were each dominated by multiple introductions each, of Alpha (74.9% genomes), Delta (98.7%), and Omicron (87.8%) VoCs, respectively. During this phase, government-imposed restrictions failed to alleviate pandemic progression, resulting in higher attack rates spread across the country. Conclusions. The emergence of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants was a turning point that resulted in widespread and higher SARS-CoV-2 infections across the country.