Exploiting an early warning Nomogram for predicting the risk of ICU admission in patients with COVID-19: a multi-center study in China.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med
; 28(1): 106, 2020 Oct 27.
Статья
в английский
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2098375
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health emergency. Here, we developed and validated a practical model based on the data from a multi-center cohort in China for early identification and prediction of which patients will be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).METHODS:
Data of 1087 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were collected from 49 sites between January 2 and February 28, 2020, in Sichuan and Wuhan. Patients were randomly categorized into the training and validation cohorts (73). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression analyzes were used to develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated for the C-index, calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Further, the nomogram was externally validated in a different cohort.RESULTS:
The individualized prediction nomogram included 6 predictors age, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, fever, and chronic kidney disease. The model demonstrated a high discriminative ability in the training cohort (C-index = 0.829), which was confirmed in the external validation cohort (C-index = 0.776). In addition, the calibration plots confirmed good concordance for predicting the risk of ICU admission. Decision curve analysis revealed that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful.CONCLUSION:
We established an early prediction model incorporating clinical characteristics that could be quickly obtained on hospital admission, even in community health centers. This model can be conveniently used to predict the individual risk for ICU admission of patients with COVID-19 and optimize the use of limited resources.ключевые слова
Полный текст:
Имеется в наличии
Коллекция:
Международные базы данных
база данных:
MEDLINE
Основная тема:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Hospitalization
/
Intensive Care Units
Тип исследования:
Когортное исследование
/
Диагностическое исследование
/
Экспериментальные исследования
/
Наблюдательное исследование
/
Прогностическое исследование
/
Рандомизированные контролируемые испытания
Пределы темы:
Взрослые
/
Пожилые
/
Женщины
/
Люди
/
Мужчины
/
Middle aged
Страна как тема:
Азия
Язык:
английский
Журнал:
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med
Тематика журнала:
Медицина неотложных состояний
/
Травматология
Год:
2020
Тип:
Статья
Аффилированная страна:
S13049-020-00795-w
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