Has growth mixture modeling improved our understanding of how early change predicts psychotherapy outcome?

OBJECTIVE: Early change in psychotherapy predicts outcome. Seven studies have used growth mixture modeling [GMM; Muthén, B. (2001). Second-generation structural equation modeling with a combination of categorical and continuous latent variables: New opportunities for latent class-latent growth modeling. In L. M. Collins & A. G. Sawyers (Eds.), New methods for the analysis of change (pp. 291-322). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association] to identify patient classes based on early change but have yielded conflicting results. Here, we review the earlier studies and apply GMM to a new data set. METHOD: In a university-based training clinic, 251 patients were administered the Outcome Questionnaire-45 [Lambert, M. J., Hansen, N. B., Umphress, V., Lunnen, K., Okiishi, J., Burlingame, G., … Reisinger, C. W. (1996). Administration and scoring manual for the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ 45.2). Wilmington, DE: American Professional Credentialing Services] at each psychotherapy session. We used GMM to identify class structure based on change in the first six sessions and examined trajectories as predictors of outcome. RESULTS: The sample was best described as a single class. There was no evidence of autoregressive trends in the data. We achieved better fit to the data by permitting latent variables some degree of kurtosis, rather than to assume multivariate normality. Treatment outcome was predicted by the amount of early improvement, regardless of initial level of distress. The presence of sudden early gains or losses did not further improve outcome prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Early improvement is an easily computed, powerful predictor of psychotherapy outcome. The use of GMM to investigate the relationship between change and outcome is technically complex and computationally intensive. To date, it has not been particularly informative.

Clinical significance and patients' perceived change in four sessions of brief psychodynamic intervention: characteristics of early responders.

This study investigated Tingey, Lambert, Burlingame, and Hansen's (1996) extension of Jacobson, Follette and Revenstorf's (1984) proposal for assessing clinical significance. Seventy (N=70) outpatients with/without Cluster C personality disorders treated with a brief psychodynamic intervention (BDI) were included in the study. Results showed that 33% of patients demonstrated clinically significant change on the Global Severity Index. Patients who improved reported more perceived subjective change, greater satisfaction with the treatment, and greater improvement on the Social Adjustment Scale than patients who did not improve (60%) or deteriorated (7%). Further analyses showed that clinical significance achieved in a four session ultra-brief therapy is associated with patient characteristics such as co-morbid personality disorders, level of defensive functioning, and specific interpersonal problems. Results were maintained at 3 month and 6 month follow-ups. Findings are discussed in reference to Howard's suggestions on remoralization and remission.