The application of digital health as a nursing solution for leprosy patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

Objectives: To analyse the effect of using digital health technology on leprosy control programmes. Method: The systematic review comprised search on PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, SAGE and ProQuest databases for interventional studies published in English language from 2013 to 2021 which used digital health technology for leprosy contact tracing, active leprosy detection, monitoring of multi-drug therapy and treatment management during the corona virus disease-2019 pandemic A standard risk of bias tool was used to evaluate bias in the studies, and the Joanna Briggs Institute protocol was used to assess the quality of the studies analysed. RESULTS: Of the 205 studies initially identified, 15(7.3%) were analysed in detail. Quasi-experimental studies had a low risk of bias compared to the rest. The e-leprosy framework was being used along with applications based on smartphones and artificial intelligence Digital health technology was found to be practical, accessible and effective in leprosy control programmes. CONCLUSIONS: Studies reported favourable findings regarding the use of digital health technology in services related to leprosy patients.

The role of mobile teledermoscopy in skin cancer triage and management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The unprecedented onset of the COVID-19 crisis poses a significant challenge to all fields of medicine, including dermatology. Since the start of the coronavirus outbreak, a stark decline in new skin cancer diagnoses has been reported by countries worldwide. One of the greatest challenges during the pandemic has been the reduced access to face-to-face dermatologic evaluation and non-urgent procedures, such as biopsies or surgical excisions. Teledermatology is a well-integrated alternative when face-to-face dermatological assistance is not available. Teledermoscopy, an extension of teledermatology, comprises consulting dermoscopic images to improve the remote assessment of pigmented and non-pigmented lesions when direct visualisation of lesions is difficult. One of teledermoscopy's greatest strengths may be its utility as a triage and monitoring tool, which is critical in the early detection of skin cancer, as it can reduce the number of unnecessary referrals, wait times, and the cost of providing and receiving dermatological care. Mobile teledermoscopy may act as a communication tool between medical practitioners and patients. By using their smartphone (mobile phone) patients can monitor a suspicious skin lesion identified by their medical practitioner, or alternatively self-detect concerning lesions and forward valuable dermoscopic images for remote medical evaluation. Several mobile applications that allow users to photograph suspicious lesions with their smartphones and have them evaluated using artificial intelligence technology have recently emerged. With the growing popularity of mobile apps and consumer-involved healthcare, this will likely be a key component of skin cancer screening in the years to come. However, most of these applications apply artificial intelligence technology to assess clinical images rather than dermoscopic images, which may lead to lower diagnostic accuracy. Incorporating the direct-to-consumer mobile dermoscopy model in combination with mole-scanning artificial intelligence as a mobile app may be the future of skin cancer detection.

Implementation of National Leprosy Eradication Programme during COVID-19 era: A qualitative research.

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic imposed new challenge to the implementation of the National Leprosy Eradication Programme. According to national data, after lockdown due to COVID-19, there was a 29% reduction in total leprosy cases reported in the first quarter (April-June) of 2020 in comparison to 2019. Objectives To explore the difficulties faced by different stakeholders of the National Leprosy Eradication Programme like policy makers, doctors, grass root level health workers as well as leprosy patients during COVID-19 pandemic with respect to programme implementation and access to leprosy care. Materials and Methods Qualitative research was undertaken including two focus-group-discussions held among six leprosy patients diagnosed after lockdown and nine ASHA workers as well as six in-depth interviews of doctors, leprologists, and programme managers. Ethics committee approval was sought and informed consent was obtained from all participants. All focus-group-discussions were electronically recorded and the in-depth interviews telephonically recorded, transcribed and translated from Bengali-to-English. Transcripts were separately coded by researchers and thematically analysed with the help of Visual-Anthropac software version 1.0. Results Solitary focus on COVID-19 control, capacity building and information, education and communication, leprosy case search & surveillance, co-infection among health workers, transportation issues were the themes explored from focus-group-discussions of health workers and ASHA workers. Similarly, the present study identified six themes from in-depth interviews of programme manager, leprologists, programme manager as diagnostic difficulty, operational issues, rehabilitation issues, capacity building & information education and communication activities and way forward. Limitations The research reveals the perceptions of rural population of Eastern India with high leprosy prevalence, which might not be applicable for urban areas or low prevalent districts Conclusion The solitary focus of the administration towards COVID and shifting the infrastructure and human resource only towards the management of COVID can lead to resurgence of the leprosy. Having an organised framework of operations, catering to the need of the front-line workers in rendering services, utilizing the digital platform and social media, and focusing on rehabilitation would be needed to overcome the crisis.

Kynurenines in the Pathogenesis of Peripheral Neuropathy During Leprosy and COVID-19.

Inflammatory disorders are associated with the activation of tryptophan (TRYP) catabolism via the kynurenine pathway (KP). Several reports have demonstrated the role of KP in the immunopathophysiology of both leprosy and coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). The nervous system can be affected in infections caused by both Mycobacterium leprae and SARS-CoV-2, but the mechanisms involved in the peripheral neural damage induced by these infectious agents are not fully understood. In recent years KP has received greater attention due the importance of kynurenine metabolites in infectious diseases, immune dysfunction and nervous system disorders. In this review, we discuss how modulation of the KP may aid in controlling the damage to peripheral nerves and the effects of KP activation on neural damage during leprosy or COVID-19 individually and we speculate its role during co-infection.

Use of healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in urban Ethiopia: evidence from retrospective health facility survey data.

OBJECTIVES: In recent years, Ethiopia has made enormous strides in enhancing access to healthcare, especially, maternal and child healthcare. With the onset and spread of COVID-19, the attention of the healthcare system has pivoted to handling the disease, potentially at the cost of other healthcare needs. This paper explores whether this shift has come at the cost of non-Covid related healthcare, especially the use of maternal and child health (MCH) services. SETTING: Data covering a 24-month period are drawn from 59 health centres and 29 public hospitals located in urban Ethiopia. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome measures are the use of MCH services including family planning, antenatal and postnatal care, abortion care, delivery and immunisation. The secondary outcome measures are the use of health services by adults including antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) and leprosy and dental services RESULTS: There is a sharp reduction in the use of both inpatient (20%-27%, p<0.001) and outpatient (27%-34%, p<0.001) care, particularly in Addis Ababa, which has been most acutely affected by the virus. This decline does not come at the cost of MCH services. The use of several MCH components (skilled birth attendant deliveries, immunisation, postnatal care) remains unaffected throughout the period while others (family planning services, antenatal care) experience a decline (8%-17%) in the immediate aftermath but recover soon after. CONCLUSION: Concerns about the crowding out of MCH services due to the focus on COVID-19 are unfounded. Proactive measures taken by the government and healthcare facilities to ring-fence the use of essential healthcare services have mitigated service disruptions. The results underline the resilience and agility displayed by one of the world's most resource-constrained healthcare systems. Further research on the approaches used to mitigate disruptions is needed.

Chemical profiling and unraveling of anti-COVID-19 biomarkers of red sage (Lantana camara L.) cultivars using UPLC-MS/MS coupled to chemometric analysis, in vitro study and molecular docking.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Red sage (Lantana camara L.) (Verbenaceae) is a widely spread plant that was traditionally used in Brazil, India, Kenya, Thailand, Mexico, Nigeria, Australia and Southeast Asia for treating several ailments including rheumatism and leprosy. Despite its historical role in relieving respiratory diseases, limited studies progressed to the plant's probable inhibition to respiratory viruses especially after the striking spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. AIM OF THE STUDY: This study aimed to investigate the inhibitory activity of different L. camara cultivars to SARS-CoV-2, that was not previously inspected, and clarify their mechanisms of action in the metabolomics viewpoint, and to determine the biomarkers that are related to such activity using UPLC-MS/MS coupled to in vitro-studies and chemometric analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Chemical profiling of different cultivars was accomplished via UPLC-MS/MS. Principle component analysis (PCA) and orthogonal projection to latent structures (OPLS) models were built using SIMCA® (multivariate data analysis software). Cytotoxicity and COVID-19 inhibitory activity testing were done followed by TaqMan Real-time RT-PCR (Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) assay that aimed to study extracts' effects on RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and E-genes expression levels. Detected biomarkers from OPLS analysis were docked into potential targets pockets to investigate their possible interaction patterns using Schrodinger® suite. RESULTS: UPLC-MS/MS analysis of different cultivars yielded 47 metabolites, most of them are triterpenoids and flavonoids. PCA plots revealed that inter-cultivar factor has no pronounced effect on the chemical profiles of extracts except for L. camara, cultivar Drap d'or flowers and leaves extracts as well as for L. camara cv Chelsea gem leaves extract. Among the tested extracts, flowers and leaves extracts of L. camara cv Chelsea gem, flowers extracts of L. camara cv Spreading sunset and L. camara cv Drap d'or showed the highest selectivity indices scoring 12.3, 10.1, 8.6 and 7.8, respectively, indicating their relative high safety and efficacy. Leaves and flowers extracts of L. camara cv Chelsea gem, flowers extracts of L. camara cv Spreading sunset and L. camara cv Drap d'or were the most promising inhibitors to viral plaques exhibiting IC50 values of 3.18, 3.67, 4.18 and 5.01 µg/mL, respectively. This was incremented by OPLS analysis that related their promising COVID-19 inhibitory activities to the presence of twelve biomarkers. Inhibiting the expression of RdRp gene is the major mechanism behind the antiviral activity of most extracts at almost all concentration levels. Molecular docking of the active biomarkers against RdRp revealed that isoverbascoside, luteolin-7,4'-O-diglucoside, camarolic acid and lantoic acid exhibited higher docking scores of -11.378, -10.64, -6.72 and -6.07 kcal/mol, respectively, when compared to remdesivir (-5.75 kcal/mol), thus these four compounds can serve as promising anti-COVID-19 candidates. CONCLUSION: Flowers and leaves extracts of four L. camara cultivars were recognized as rich sources of phytoconstituents possessing anti-COVID-19 activity. Combination of UPLC-MS/MS and chemometrics is a promising approach to detect chemical composition differences among the cultivars and correlate them to COVID-19 inhibitory activities allowing to pinpoint possible biomarkers. Further in-vitro and in-vivo studies are required to verify their activity.

Impacto da COVID-19 em doenças de notificação compulsória no Norte do Brasil / Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on notifiable diseases in Northern Brazil / Impacto de la COVID-19 en las enfermedades de notificación compulsoria del Norte de Brasil

Objetivo: Avaliar o impacto da pandemia COVID-19 em doenças de notificação compulsória no Norte do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo descritivo e retrospectivo realizado com dados das bases Sinan (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação) e SIH/SUS (Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS) sobre meningite bacteriana e viral, dengue, febre hemorrágica da dengue, arboviroses, sífilis, tuberculose, hanseníase e hepatites virais. Utilizou-se estatística descritiva para avaliação da variação nos números absolutos das notificações e internações do período de 2015 a 2020 e suas variações médias. Resultados: As notificações e internações de meningite, arboviroses não-dengue, hanseníase, leptospirose e hepatites virais, em geral, demonstraram redução de 50 até 80% em relação a períodos anteriores. Houve variabilidade regional com dengue e febre hemorrágica da dengue, com aumentos e reduções independentes. As sífilis adquirida, gestacional e congênita demonstraram queda de até 60% nas notificações e nas internações, exceto sífilis congênita, que se manteve em estabilidade. As notificações e as internações de tuberculose se mantiveram estáveis em toda a região. Conclusão: Houve redução geral de mais da metade das notificações e das internações hospitalares, apresentando um impacto variável, dependendo do Estado e do processo de endemia de cada sub-região.

Objective: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on notifiable diseases in Northern Brazil. Methods: A descriptive retrospective study was conducted using data from the Notifiable Disease Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação ­ Sinan) and SUS Hospital Information System (Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS ­ SIH/SUS) on bacterial and viral meningitis, dengue, dengue hemorrhagic fever, arboviruses, syphilis, tuberculosis, leprosy, and viral hepatitis. Descriptive statistics was used to assess the variation in absolute numbers of notifications and hospitalizations from 2015 to 2020 and their average variations. Results: Notifications and hospitalizations for meningitis, non-dengue arboviruses, leprosy, leptospirosis, and viral hepatitis exhibited a general decrease of 50 to 80% compared to previous years. There was regional variation in dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever, with independent increases and decreases. Acquired, gestational and congenital syphilis presented a 60% decrease in notifications and hospitalizations, except for congenital syphilis, which remained stable. Tuberculosis notifications and hospitalizations remained stable in the entire region. Conclusion: There was an overall decrease of more than a half of notifications and hospitalizations, representing a variable impact depending on the state and the endemic process of each subregion.

Objetivo: Evaluar el impacto de la pandemia de la COVID-19 en las enfermedades de notificación compulsoria del Norte de Brasil. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo y retrospectivo realizado con datos de las bases SINAN (Sistema de Información de Agravios de Notificación) y SIH/SUS (Sistema de Informaciones Hospitalarias del SUS) sobre la meningitis bacteriana y viral, el dengue, la fiebre hemorrágica del dengue, las arbovirosis, la sífilis, la tuberculosis, la lepra y las hepatitis virales. Se utilizó de la estadística descriptiva para la evaluación de la variación de los números absolutos de las notificaciones y los ingresos del periodo entre 2015 y 2020 y sus variaciones medias. Resultados: Las notificaciones y los ingresos de meningitis, arbovirosis no-dengue,la lepra, la leptospirosis y las hepatitis virales, en general, han demostrado una disminución del 50 hasta el 80% respecto los periodos anteriores. Hubo variabilidad por región respecto el dengue y fiebre hemorrágica del dengue con subidas y bajadas independientes. Las sífilis adquirida, gestacional y congénita han demostrado caída hasta el 60% de las notificaciones e ingresos excepto la sífilis congénita que se mantuvo estable. Las notificaciones y los ingresos por tuberculosis se mantuvieron estables em toda la región. Conclusión: Hubo una disminución general de más de la mitad de las notificaciones y los ingresos hospitalarios, presentando un impacto variable, a depender del Estado y del proceso de endemia de cada sub-región.

Tuberculosis vaccine BCG: the magical effect of the old vaccine in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a live attenuated M. bovis vaccine that was developed about 100 years ago by Albert Calmette and Camille Guérin. Many countries have been using the vaccine for decades against tuberculosis (TB). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a single dose of BCG for infants in TB endemic as well as leprosy high risk countries, and globally almost 130 million infants are vaccinated yearly. The role of BCG is well known in reducing neonatal and childhood death rates. Epidemiological and retrospective cross-sectional studies demonstrated that the BCG vaccination protects the children against respiratory tract infections and lowers the risk of malaria in children. In addition, BCG enhances IFN-γ and IL-10 levels, thus providing immunity against respiratory tract infection even in elderly people. The BCG is also known to provide nonspecific innate immunity against viruses and parasites, through an innate immune mechanism termed 'trained immunity' and is defined as the immunological recall of the innate immune system by epigenetic reprogramming. Based on these studies it is suggested that the BCG has the potential to act as a protective agent against COVID-19. Further proven safety records of BCG in humans, its adjuvant activity and low-cost manufacturing make it an attractive option to stop the pandemic and reduce the COVID-19 related mortality. In this review we discuss the heterologous effects of BCG, induction of trained immunity and its implication in development of a potential vaccine against COVID-19 pandemic.

Appraising the oil-stock nexus during the COVID-19 pandemic shock: a panel threshold analysis.

We examine the oil-stock nexus in 24 countries amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and test for threshold effects on oil prices using Hansen (1999) panel dynamic threshold model and recent extensions of Kremer et al. (2013) and Seo and Shin (2016). We find evidence of nonlinearities and threshold effects in oil prices. As an addition to literature, our estimated model shows that stock market prices react in a regime-style manner, when the joint effects of oil prices, exchange rate changes, number of reported cases, and the number of death due to COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. This is in support of the theoretical model of investor sentiment by Barberis et al. (1998). Therefore, we are of the opinion that policymakers, governments, and investors in their business decision-making process should put into consideration and also observe changes in the global reported cases alongside the number of deaths and how oil prices are evolving, as the global economy is further affected by the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

Chronic pain and infection: mechanisms, causes, conditions, treatments, and controversies.

Throughout human history, infection has been the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, with pain being one of the cardinal warning signs. However, in a substantial percentage of cases, pain can persist after resolution of acute illness, manifesting as neuropathic, nociplastic (eg, fibromyalgia, irritable bowel syndrome), or nociceptive pain. Mechanisms by which acute infectious pain becomes chronic are variable and can include immunological phenomena (eg, bystander activation, molecular mimicry), direct microbe invasion, central sensitization from physical or psychological triggers, and complications from treatment. Microbes resulting in a high incidence of chronic pain include bacteria such as the Borrelia species and Mycobacterium leprae, as well as viruses such as HIV, SARS-CoV-2 and herpeses. Emerging evidence also supports an infectious cause in a subset of patients with discogenic low back pain and inflammatory bowel disease. Although antimicrobial treatment might have a role in treating chronic pain states that involve active infectious inflammatory processes, their use in chronic pain conditions resulting from autoimmune mechanisms, central sensitization and irrevocable tissue (eg, arthropathy, vasculitis) or nerve injury, are likely to cause more harm than benefit. This review focuses on the relation between infection and chronic pain, with an emphasis on common viral and bacterial causes.

Mucocutaneous manifestations of COVID-19-associated mucormycosis: A retrospective cross-sectional study.

Background Cutaneous mucormycosis has shown a significant upsurge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the rapid progression and high mortality of cutaneous mucormycosis in this context, it is important to identify it early. However, very few studies report detailed clinical descriptions of cutaneous mucormycosis in COVID-19 patients. Objectives To describe mucocutaneous lesions of COVID-19-associated mucormycosis based on clinical morphology and attempt to correlate them with radiological changes. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care centre from 1st April to 31st July 2021. Eligibility criteria included hospitalised adult patients of COVID-19-associated mucormycosis with mucocutaneous lesions. Results All subjects were recently recovering COVID-19 patients diagnosed with cutaneous mucormycosis. One of fifty-three (2%) patients had primary cutaneous mucormycosis, and all of the rest had secondary cutaneous mucormycosis. Secondary cutaneous mucormycosis lesions presented as cutaneous-abscess in 25/52 (48%), nodulo-pustular lesions in 1/52 (2%), necrotic eschar in 1/52 (2%) and ulcero-necrotic in 1/52 (2%). Mucosal lesions were of three broad sub-types: ulcero-necrotic in 1/52 (2%), pustular in 2/52 (4%) and plaques in 1/52 (2%). Twenty out of fifty-two patients (38%) presented with simultaneous mucosal and cutaneous lesions belonging to the above categories. Magnetic resonance imaging of the face showed variable features of cutaneous and subcutaneous tissue involvement, viz. peripherally enhancing collection in the abscess group, "dot in circle sign" and heterogeneous contrast enhancement in the nodulo-pustular group; and fat stranding with infiltration of subcutaneous tissue in cases with necrotic eschar and ulcero-necrotic lesions. Limitations The morphological variety of cutaneous mucormycosis patients in a single-centre study like ours might not be very precise. Thus, there is a need to conduct multi-centric prospective studies with larger sample sizes in the future to substantiate our morphological and radiological findings. Conclusions COVID-19-associated mucormycosis patients in our study presented with a few specific types of mucocutaneous manifestations, with distinct magnetic resonance imaging findings. If corroborated by larger studies, these observations would be helpful in the early diagnosis of this serious illness.

An assessment of the reported impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on leprosy services using an online survey of practitioners in leprosy referral centres.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to governments implementing a variety of public health measures to control transmission and has affected health services. Leprosy is a communicable neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae and is an important health problem in low- and middle-income countries. The natural history of leprosy means that affected individuals need long-term follow-up. The measures recommended to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can create barriers to health services. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic response on leprosy services and disease management. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey with healthcare professionals in leprosy referral centres. RESULTS: Eighty percent of leprosy diagnostic services were reduced. All respondents reported that multidrug therapy (MDT) was available but two reported a reduced stock. Clinicians used alternative strategies such as telephone consultations to maintain contact with patients. However, patients were not able to travel to the referral centres. DISCUSSION: This study highlights the effects of the initial phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on leprosy services in a range of leprosy-endemic countries. Many services remained open, providing leprosy diagnosis, MDT and leprosy reaction medications. Centres developed innovative measures to counter the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dermatology practice in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is implicated in the ongoing pandemic across the globe since December 2019. It was first notified by China from Wuhan on 31 December 2020 and transmission to healthcare workers was first reported on 20 January 2020. Human-to-human transmission is mainly by droplet infection. At present no effective vaccine is available. Our speciality needs to collectively address the urgent issue of risk of transmission in dermatology practice. A case series of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from Wuhan described that 41.3% of their patients may have acquired the infection from the hospital. Of all the infected health care workers, 77.5% worked in general wards and departments. These data highlight the significant risk of nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 and also the higher risk in general wards and departments compared to the emergency room or intensive care unit. Dermatology patients are generally seen in clinics and in outpatient departments in hospitals. Patients wait together in the waiting area, intermingle and then are seen by the physician in their chamber. This can cause transmission of the pathogen among patients and from patient to physician. Social distancing, hand hygiene and the use of personal protective equipment are important for preventing the spread of infection and dermatology practices also have to incorporate these aspects. Telemedicine is becoming an important tool for the management of dermatology patients in these times. At-risk patients in dermatology also need to be given priority care. Protocols for the use of immunosuppressants and biologics in dermatology during the pandemic are being developed.

Pandemics and education: A historical review.

Major pandemics have tremendous effects on society. They precipitated the early decline of the Western Roman Empire and helped spread Christianity. There are countless such examples of infectious diseases altering the course of history. The impact of epidemics on education however is less well documented. This present historical account of the past 800 years looks specifically at how some aspects of education were shaped from the early medieval epidemics such as leprosy and the Black Plague to the Spanish Flu and COVID-19. Leprosy changed religious education, and the Black Plague may have contributed to the rise of medical schools, hospitals, public health education, and led to the implementation of lazarettos and the quarantine. The smallpox epidemic helped usher in public health education for immunization, while the 1918 Spanish Flu precipitated the rise of education by correspondence, and recently COVID-19 has catapulted remote digital learning to the forefront of higher education.

Hansen's disease in the era of COVID-19: An observation on a series of six patients with co-infection.

Since the onset of the present pandemic, effect of the novel corona virus on other infectious conditions continues to be investigated. Although the immunological responses to SARS-Cov-2 infection have been elaborated extensively, they fail to explain, variations in its clinical manifestations and its interaction with other diseases. Hansen's disease is known to present as a complex immunological response to the lepra bacilli, resulting in its varied spectral manifestations. An interaction between these two infectious agents, hence, may affect Hansen's disease. We came across six cases of Hansen's disease who developed COVID19 co-infection. This series presents their clinical course and outcome, during the period of co-infection. All cases were followed up for a minimum eight-week period thereafter. In all these cases the active phase of coronavirus infection had no effect on Hansen's disease and those on prednisolone for their lepra reaction had a more favorable outcome, with two cases manifesting exacerbation of their lepra reactions in the follow period.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Budgetary Mechanism Established to Cover Public Health Expenditure. A Case Study of Romania.

The COVID-19 pandemic stressed the importance of understanding the sources of vulnerabilities that can lead to a financial crisis and highlighted the predominant impact on health systems. Firstly, the paper aims to conduct a retrospective analysis of the Romanian health care system, over the period of time 1985-2019, based on our own computed sustainability index for public health. Secondly, using the Gregory-Hansen cointegration method, we provide new evidence on the causal relationship between health expenditure and GDP for Romania over the period of time 1985-2017. Based on the retrospective analysis of the long-run co-movement between health spending and GDP, the study allows one to prospectively examine not only the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care spending, but also to reveal the government's fiscal position and vulnerabilities. Our results highlight the intergenerational costs related to the policy incoherence roadmap and regulatory fragmentation, stressing the importance of economic system resilience through fiscal diligence and the consolidation of the institutional context.

Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen's Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region.

This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen's disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen's disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen's disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen's disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen's disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.

A systematic review of the infectious complications of colchicine and the use of colchicine to treat infections.

OBJECTIVE: Colchicine has been used historically as an anti-inflammatory agent for a wide range of diseases. Little is known regarding the relationship between colchicine use and infectious disease outcomes. The objective of this study was to systematically examine infectious adverse events associated with colchicine usage and the clinical use of colchicine for infectious diseases. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA methodology. PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus and Cochrane Library databases were searched (up to 12th October, 2020) for interventional and observational studies that included colchicine usage associated with infectious adverse events or infectious disease outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 9,237 studies were initially identified and after exclusions, 36 articles comprising 21 interventional studies and 15 observational studies were included in this systematic review. There were 19 studies that reported infectious adverse events and 17 studies that examined the efficacy of colchicine in treating infectious disease. Only two out of six studies reported a significant benefit using colchicine in the management of viral liver disease. There was some evidence colchicine is beneficial in managing COVID-19 by reducing time to deterioration, length of stay in hospital and mortality. Colchicine had some benefit in managing malaria, condyloma accuminata and verruca vulgaris, viral myocarditis and erythema nodosum leprosum based on case-series or small, pilot clinical studies. Two of the clinical trials and five of the observational studies reported significant associations between infections adverse events and colchicine usage. Risk of pneumonia was found in three studies and post-operative infections were reported in two studies. Risks of urinary tract infections, H. pylori and C.difficile were only reported by one study each. CONCLUSION: There is a current lack of clinical evidence that colchicine has a role in treating or managing infectious diseases. Preliminary studies have demonstrated a possible role in the management of COVID-19 but results from more clinical trials are needed. There is inconclusive evidence that suggests colchicine is associated with increased risk of infections, particularly pneumonia.