Evolução temporal e distribuição espacial da hanseníase em município de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo / Evolución temporal y distribución espacial de la lepra en una ciudad de baja endemia en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil / Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of leprosy in a municipality with low endemicity in São Paulo state, Brazil

Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e temporal da hanseníase em cenário de baixa endemicidade no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, sobre casos de hanseníase notificados no município de Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 e 2016. A tendência temporal da taxa de detecção de hanseníase foi verificada mediante decomposição de séries temporais, e identificadas as áreas de alta e de baixa ocorrência da doença utilizando-se a técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Foram registrados 890 casos, e a taxa de detecção apresentou uma tendência crescente no período analisado, com crescimento médio de 1% ao mês. Identificaram-se áreas de alta ocorrência da doença na região norte do município (99% e 95% de confiança). Conclusão: A taxa de detecção de hanseníase apresentou tendência temporal crescente, e a análise espacial permitiu visualizar que a região do município com maior ocorrência da doença se caracteriza por apresentar as maiores desigualdades sociais.

Objetivo: Analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de la lepra en un escenario de baja endemicidad en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico con casos de lepra en Ribeirão Preto, entre 2006 y 2016. La tendencia temporal de la detección de la lepra se verificó a través de la descomposición de series de tiempo e identificaron áreas de alta y baja ocurrencia utilizando la técnica Getis-Ord Gi*. Resultados: Fueron 890 casos y la tasa de detección mostró una tendencia creciente en el período de 2011 a 2015, con un crecimiento promedio de 1% mensual. Se identificaron áreas de alta ocurrencia de la enfermedad en la región norte de la ciudad (99% y 95% de confianza). Conclusión: El análisis temporal mostró que la tasa de detección de lepra presentó una tendencia creciente y el análisis espacial mostró que la región de la ciudad con mayor ocurrencia de la enfermedad se caracteriza por presentar las mayores desigualdades sociales.

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a scenario of low endemicity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Ecological study with leprosy cases in Ribeirão Preto, between 2006 to 2016. The temporal trend of leprosy detection was verified through the decomposition of time series and identified areas of high and low occurrence of the disease using the Getis-Ord Gi* technique. Results: There were 890 cases, and the detection rate showed an increasing trend in the period from 2011 to 2015, with an average growth of 1% per month. Areas of high occurrence of the disease were identified in the northern region of the city (99% and 95% confidence). Conclusion: The temporal analysis showed that the rate of detection of leprosy presented an increasing trend, and the spatial analysis showed that the region of the municipality with the highest occurrence of the disease is characterized by presenting the greatest social inequalities.

Cenário epidemiológico da hanseníase e diferenças por sexo / Epidemiological scenario of leprosy and sex differences

Objetivo: Descrever o cenário epidemiológico da hanseníase segundo as características clínicas e demográficas entre indivíduos dos sexos feminino e masculino. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de série temporal. Avaliaram-se dados de pacientes notificados no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan) durante o período de 2014 a 2017 no município de Paulo Afonso, na Bahia. Resultados: Foram notificados 130 casos novos, com taxa de detecção média nas mulheres de 14,7±5,6 por 100 mil habitantes, ou seja, valores bem acima da média estadual e nacional (p=0,011). Além disso, observou-se predominância de casos multibacilares em homens e paucibacilares em mulheres (p>0,0001). A faixa etária mais acometida foi entre 35 e 64 anos (53,1%), independentemente do sexo. Conclusão: A hanseníase apresentou-se com grau de endemicidade muito alto e acometendo prioritariamente as mulheres. Portanto, há necessidade urgente de elaboração de políticas públicas mais direcionadas ao enfrentamento da doença no município. (AU)

Objective: To describe the epidemiological scenario of leprosy according to the clinical and demographic characteristic among men and women. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study. Data from patients notified in the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan) were evaluated from 2014 to 2017 in the municipality of Paulo Afonso, in Bahia. Results: A total of 130 new cases were reported, with an average detection rate in women of 14.7±5.6 per 100 thousand inhabitants, that is, values well above the state and national average (p=0.011). In addition, there is a predominance of multibacillary cases in men and paucibacillary cases in women (p>0.0001). The most affected age group was between 35 and 64 years old (53.1%), regardless of sex. Conclusion: Leprosy had a very high degree of endemicity affecting primarily women. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop public policies that are more focused on coping with the disease in the municipality. (AU)

Predicting the detection of leprosy in a hyperendemic area of Brazil: Using time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Brazil has the second highest prevalence of leprosy worldwide. Autoregressive integrated moving average models are useful tools in surveillance systems because they provide reliable forecasts from epidemiological time series. AIM: To evaluate the temporal patterns of leprosy detection from 2001 to 2015 and forecast for 2020 in a hyperendemic area in northeastern Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using monthly leprosy detection from the Brazil information system for notifiable diseases. The Box-Jenkins method was applied to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. Forecasting models (95% prediction interval) were developed to predict leprosy detection for 2020. RESULTS: A total of 44,578 cases were registered with a mean of 247.7 cases per month. The best-fitted model to make forecasts was the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average ((1,1,1); (1,1,1)). It was predicted 0.32 cases/100,000 inhabitants to January of 2016 and 0.38 cases/100,000 inhabitants to December of 2020. LIMITATIONS: This study used secondary data from Brazil information system for notifiable diseases; hence, leprosy data may be underreported. CONCLUSION: The forecast for leprosy detection rate for December 2020 was < 1 case/100,000 inhabitants. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model has been shown to be appropriate and could be used to forecast leprosy detection rates. Thus, this strategy can be used to facilitate prevention and elimination programmes.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden. RESULTS: The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%). CONCLUSION: The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.

Cases of leprosy notified in the municipality of Parnaíba, state of Piauí, Brazil, 2007-2016

This study aimed to describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of leprosy cases reported in the municipality of Parnaíba, State of Piauí. This was a cross-sectional study of leprosy cases, living in Parnaíba, State of Piauí, reported to the National System of Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), from 2007 to 2016. There were 582 cases of leprosy with hyperendemic detection in the general population in 2008, 2009 and 2016; and under < 15 years of age in 2008, 2014 and 2016, with a predominance of females (53.1%), brown (62.2%), aged 20-64 years (74.7%), complete and incomplete elementary school (56.4%), housewives (20.7%), living in the urban area (87.1%), reported by primary care (69.2%). The most frequent clinical and therapeutic findings were: multibacillary operational classification (53.8%); clinical forms: undetermined (30.6%) and virchowian (24.3%); single lesion (34.8%); no affected nerves (86.7%); degree of disability zero (70.6%); bacilloscopy not performed (26.7%); therapeutic regimen 12 doses (53.7%) and no reaction (70.8%). Regarding the mode of input, predominated new case (88.8%); mode of output, cure (87.9%) and detection mode: spontaneous demand (45.8%). Out of 2,106 registered contacts, 60.6% were examined. Leprosy is endemic to Parnaíba, State of Piauí. It is noteworthy that the hyperendemic detection rates occurred during years when there was intensification of active search for contacts and cases in the population.

Spatial analysis of epidemiological and quality indicators of health services for leprosy in hyperendemic areas in Northeastern Brazil.

Leprosy is a public health problem due to the physical disabilities and deformities it causes. This study aimed to describe new leprosy cases using an operational classification and analyzing spatial patterns by means of epidemiological and quality indicators of health services in Pernambuco State, Brazil, between 2005 and 2014. This was an ecological study performed in 184 municipalities grouped into 12 health regions units for analysis. To analyze spatial patterns, the Bayesian local empirical method and Moran's spatial autocorrelation indicator were applied and box and Moran maps were used. Individuals aged ≥15 years old, grade zero physical disability and complete remission as the treatment outcome were predominant in both paucibacillary and multibacillary cases, the only difference was the predominance of females (n=9,286; 63.00%) and males (n=8,564; 60.70%), respectively. These variables were correlated (p<0.05) with the operational classification. The overall detection rate showed three high-priority areas; the indicator rate of grade 2 physical disability revealed clusters in regions IV, V, and VI; and the indicator rate of cases with some degree of disability showed precarious municipalities in seven health regions. Pernambuco maintains an active chain of transmission and ongoing endemicity of leprosy. Therefore, spatial analysis methods allow the identification of priority areas for intervention, thereby supporting the disease elimination strategy.

Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis.

This study's objective was to estimate the temporal trends of leprosy according to sex and age groups, as well as to estimate and predict the progression of the disease in a hyperendemic city located in the northeast of Brazil. This ecological time-series study was conducted in Imperatriz, Maranhão, Brazil. Leprosy cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were included. Detection rates stratified by sex and age groups were estimated. The study of temporal trends was accomplished using the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition method and temporal modeling of detection rates using linear seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model according to Box and Jenkins method. Trend forecasts were performed for the 2017-2020 period. A total of 3,212 cases of leprosy were identified, the average incidence among men aged between 30 and 59 years old was 201.55/100,000 inhabitants and among women in the same age group was 135.28/100,000 inhabitants. Detection rates in total and by sex presented a downward trend, though rates stratified according to sex and age presented a growing trend among men aged less than 15 years old and among women aged 60 years old or over. The final models selected in the time-series analysis show the forecasts of total detection rates and rates for men and women presented a downward trend for the 2017-2020 period. Even though the forecasts show a downward trend in Imperatriz, the city is unlikely to meet a significant decrease of the disease burden by 2020.

Low performance of operational indicators for leprosy control in the state of Bahia: spatiotemporal patterns, 2001-2014. / Baixo desempenho de indicadores operacionais de controle da hanseníase no estado da Bahia: padrões espaçotemporais, 2001-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize spatiotemporal patterns of operational indicators for leprosy control in the state of Bahia from 2001 to 2014. METHODS: This is a population-based ecological study, with spatial distribution and autocorrelation of operational indicators for leprosy control. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2007, 42.7% (n=178) of the municipalities presented a cure rate lower than 75%, increasing to 61.4% (n =291) from 2009 to 2014. Between 2001 and 2007, 32.5% (n=54) of the municipalities reported more than 10% of the total number of relapses in the state, increasing to 36.9% (n=75) between 2008 and 2014. From 2001 to 2014, 38% (n=159) of the municipalities presented an assessment index of disability grading at the time of diagnosis within the regular performance parameter. Between 2009 and 2014, the number of municipalities with a high incidence of grade 2 disability (G2D) at the time of diagnosis increased, reaching 55.3% (n=230) of the municipalities. Most municipalities in the state of Bahia showed poor performance in the implementation of planned actions for leprosy control, with little change or relative worsening in the patterns of operational indicators throughout the historical series. CONCLUSION: The operational context in Bahia indicates significant institutional vulnerability, leading to the need for expansion and qualification of the surveillance and health care network in the different regions and conditions analyzed in the public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS).

OBJETIVO: Caracterizar padrões espaçotemporais de indicadores operacionais de controle da hanseníase no estado da Bahia no período de 2001 a 2014. METODOLOGIA: Estudo ecológico, de base populacional, com distribuição e autocorrelação espacial de indicadores operacionais da hanseníase. RESULTADOS: No período de 2001 a 2007, 42,7% (n = 178) dos municípios apresentaram percentual de cura inferior a 75%, ampliando para 61,4% (n = 291) de 2009 a 2014. De 2001 a 2007, 32,5% (n = 54) dos municípios notificaram mais de 10% do total de casos de recidiva do estado, com aumento para 36,9% (n = 75) dessa situação no período de 2008 a 2014. De 2001 a 2014, em 38% (n = 159) dos municípios, o indicador de avaliação do grau de incapacidade física (GIF) no momento do diagnóstico se encontrava conforme o parâmetro regular de desempenho. Já no período de 2009 a 2014, houve aumento de municípios com alta ocorrência de GIF2 no momento do diagnóstico, atingindo 55,3% (n = 230) dos municípios. A maioria dos municípios do estado da Bahia apresentou desempenho insatisfatório na execução das ações de controle previstas para a hanseníase, com pouca mudança ou relativa piora nos padrões de indicadores operacionais ao longo da série histórica. CONCLUSÃO: O contexto operacional do estado da Bahia sinaliza graves dimensões de vulnerabilidade institucional, o que implica necessariamente a ampliação e a qualificação da rede de vigilância e atenção à saúde nas diferentes regiões e contextos analisados do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

Baixo desempenho de indicadores operacionais de controle da hanseníase no estado da Bahia: padrões espaçotemporais, 2001-2014 / Low performance of operational indicators for leprosy control in the state of Bahia: spatiotemporal patterns, 2001-2014

RESUMO: Objetivo: Caracterizar padrões espaçotemporais de indicadores operacionais de controle da hanseníase no estado da Bahia no período de 2001 a 2014. Metodologia: Estudo ecológico, de base populacional, com distribuição e autocorrelação espacial de indicadores operacionais da hanseníase. Resultados: No período de 2001 a 2007, 42,7% (n = 178) dos municípios apresentaram percentual de cura inferior a 75%, ampliando para 61,4% (n = 291) de 2009 a 2014. De 2001 a 2007, 32,5% (n = 54) dos municípios notificaram mais de 10% do total de casos de recidiva do estado, com aumento para 36,9% (n = 75) dessa situação no período de 2008 a 2014. De 2001 a 2014, em 38% (n = 159) dos municípios, o indicador de avaliação do grau de incapacidade física (GIF) no momento do diagnóstico se encontrava conforme o parâmetro regular de desempenho. Já no período de 2009 a 2014, houve aumento de municípios com alta ocorrência de GIF2 no momento do diagnóstico, atingindo 55,3% (n = 230) dos municípios. A maioria dos municípios do estado da Bahia apresentou desempenho insatisfatório na execução das ações de controle previstas para a hanseníase, com pouca mudança ou relativa piora nos padrões de indicadores operacionais ao longo da série histórica. Conclusão: O contexto operacional do estado da Bahia sinaliza graves dimensões de vulnerabilidade institucional, o que implica necessariamente a ampliação e a qualificação da rede de vigilância e atenção à saúde nas diferentes regiões e contextos analisados do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

ABSTRACT: Objective: To characterize spatiotemporal patterns of operational indicators for leprosy control in the state of Bahia from 2001 to 2014. Methods: This is a population-based ecological study, with spatial distribution and autocorrelation of operational indicators for leprosy control. Results: From 2001 to 2007, 42.7% (n=178) of the municipalities presented a cure rate lower than 75%, increasing to 61.4% (n =291) from 2009 to 2014. Between 2001 and 2007, 32.5% (n=54) of the municipalities reported more than 10% of the total number of relapses in the state, increasing to 36.9% (n=75) between 2008 and 2014. From 2001 to 2014, 38% (n=159) of the municipalities presented an assessment index of disability grading at the time of diagnosis within the regular performance parameter. Between 2009 and 2014, the number of municipalities with a high incidence of grade 2 disability (G2D) at the time of diagnosis increased, reaching 55.3% (n=230) of the municipalities. Most municipalities in the state of Bahia showed poor performance in the implementation of planned actions for leprosy control, with little change or relative worsening in the patterns of operational indicators throughout the historical series. Conclusion: The operational context in Bahia indicates significant institutional vulnerability, leading to the need for expansion and qualification of the surveillance and health care network in the different regions and conditions analyzed in the public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS).

Limitação de atividade e restrição à participação social em pessoas com hanseníase: análise transversal da magnitude e fatores associados em município hiperendêmico do Piauí, 2001 a 2014 / Limitación de la actividad y restricción de la participatión social en personas con lepra: análisis transversal de la magnitud y factores asociados en un municipio hiperendémico de Piauí, 2001 a 2014 / Activity limitation and social participation restriction of people with leprosy: a cross-sectional analysis of magnitude and associated factors in a hyperendemic municipality in the state of Piauí, Brazil, 2001-2014

Objetivo: analisar a magnitude e os fatores associados à limitação de atividade e restrição à participação social em pessoas com hanseníase de 2001 a 2014, em Picos, Piauí. Métodos: estudo transversal com dados coletados por meio de entrevistas e exames físicos; foram utilizadas as escalas SALSA (Screening of Activity Limitation and Safety Awareness) e de participação social; calcularam-se razões de prevalência (RP) brutas. Resultados: participaram do estudo 263 pessoas com hanseníase; a limitação de atividade foi associada com grau de incapacidade I/II (RP=1,66; IC95% 1,14;2,41), idade ≥60 anos (RP=1,68; IC95% 1,09;3,02) e baixa escolaridade (RP=1,76; IC95% 1,26;2,45); observou-se correlação entre escore olho-mão-pé e limitação de atividade (r=0,29; p<0,001) e restrição à participação (r=0,27; p<0,001). Conclusão a limitação de atividade e a restrição à participação apresentaram alta prevalência no contexto estudado, e foram associadas a gravidade da doença, idade avançada e vulnerabilidade social.

Objetivo: analizar la magnitud y factores asociados con la limitación de actividad y restricción de la participación social en personas con lepra entre 2001 a 2014 en Picos/PI. Métodos: Estudio transversal con dados recopilados en entrevistas y exámenes físicos. Se utilizaron las escalas SALSA (Screening of Activity Limitation and Safety Awareness) y de participación social. Se calcularon las razones de prevalencia bruta (RP). Resultados: 263 personas con lepra participaron en el estudio. La limitación de actividad se asoció con el grado de discapacidad I/II (RP=1,66; IC95% 1,14;2,41), edad ≥ 60 años (RP= 1,68; IC95% 1,09;3,02) y baja escolaridad (RP=1,76; IC95% 1,26;2,45). Hubo una correlación entre la puntuación ojo-mano-pie y la limitación de actividad (r=0,29; p<0,001) y la restricción de participación (r=0,27; p<0,001). Conclusión: la limitación de la actividad y la restricción de participación mostraron una alta prevalencia en el contexto estudiado y se asociaron con la gravedad, la vejez y la vulnerabilidad social.

Objective: to analyse the magnitude and factors associated with activity limitation and social participation restriction of people with leprosy from 2001 to 2014 in Picos, Piauí, Brazil. Methods: this was a cross-sectional study with data collected through interviews and physical examinations; the SALSA Scale (Screening of Activity Limitation and Safety Awareness) and Social Participation Scale were used; crude prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated. Results: 263 people with leprosy participated in the study; activity limitation was associated with grade I/II disability (PR=1.66; 95%CI 1.14;2.41), age ≥60 years (PR=1.68; 95%CI 1.09;3.02) and low schooling (PR=1.76; 95%CI 1.26;2.45); correlation was found between eye-hand-foot score and activity limitation (r=0.29; p<0.001) and participation restriction (r=0.27; p<0.001). Conclusion: activity limitation and participation restriction had high prevalence in the context studied and were associated with disease severity, advanced age and social vulnerability.

Trend analysis of leprosy indicators in a hyperendemic Brazilian state, 2001-2015.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend of leprosy indicators in a hyperendemic state of Brazil, from 2001-2015. METHODS: This is a time-series study of leprosy indicators in the state of Maranhão, Northeastern region of Brazil. The study used data from the Brazilian National System of Reportable Diseases, for the period between 2001 and 2015. The following indicators were evaluated: (i) detection coefficient in the general population; (ii) detection coefficient in people under 15 years old; (iii) rate of cases with grade 2 physical disability in the diagnosis; (iv) rate of examined contacts, and (v) proportion of healing . The Prais-Winsten regression model was used for trend analysis. Analyses were performed for the state and by each health region. RESULTS: 77,697 leprosy cases were analyzed in the general population and 7,599 in individuals under 15 years old. The detection coefficient in the general population ranged from 80.7/100 thousand inhabitants in 2001 to 51.2/100 thousand inhabitants in 2015. The coefficient in the general population presented a downward trend (annual percentage variation [APV] = -2.98; 95%CI -4.15- -1.79). For the population under 15 years old, the rate was 24.9/100 thousand inhabitants in 2001, and 19.9/100 thousand inhabitants in 2015, with downward trend (APV = -3.07; 95%CI -4.95- -1.15). It was observed upward trend in rate of contacts examined (APV = 2.35; 95%CI 0.58-4.15) and rate of cases with grade 2 disability (APV = 2.19; 95%CI 0.23-4.19). Stationary trend was observed in the proportion of healing (APV = -0.10; 95%CI -0.50-0.30). Regional differences were found in the performance of the indicators. CONCLUSIONS: A downward trend for the detection coefficients in the general population and in individuals under 15 years old was found in Maranhão. Despite this result, the rates are still very high, demanding efforts from all spheres of public administration and health professionals to reduce the burden of the disease in the state.

Physical disabilities due to leprosy in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil: a temporal and spatial modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring disability trends is required to evaluate leprosy elimination. We assessed the trends in disability indicators and its association with space in Alagoas, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study in all leprosy cases from 2006 to 2016. Disability indicators were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability at diagnosis ranged from 4.7% to 11.9% (annual percent change, 1.4; P= 0.7), while at discharge, it ranged from 0.0% to 12.3% (annual percent change, -21.8; P= 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Disability indicators had a stable trend over the study period.

Spatial modeling of leprosy in the state of Bahia and its social determinants: a study of health inequities.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a neglected disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Brazil has the second largest number of cases in the world. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy in the state of BAHIA, Brazil, and the association between his occurrence and the synthetic indicators of municipal socioeconomic performance, social vulnerability and income inequality. METHODS: An ecological study with secondary data obtained from the National System of Notifiable Diseases. Dependent variables: coefficient of detection in the general population and in the population under 15 years old and the rate of grade II of physical disability. Independent variables: Synthetic indicators of socioeconomic performance, social vulnerability and income inequality. RESULTS: The highest coefficients of detection of new cases in the general population and in children under 15 years old are concentrated in the north-west axis and in the southern region of the state. On the other hand, the highest rates of degree II of physical incapacity are concentrated in the north, northeast and south regions. Only the Index of Social and Economic Performance(IPESE)-Economy and Finance composed the final regression model of the general detection coefficients and in children under 15 years old. The municipalities with the highest indexes had the highest detection coefficients, reflecting the capacity to diagnose new cases. STUDY LIMITATIONS: The use of synthetic indicators is a limitation of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy presents a heterogeneous spatial pattern in the state of BAHIA, and the IPESE-Economics and Finance indicator is the only one with explanatory potential of the disease.

Spatial modeling of leprosy in the state of Bahia and its social determinants: a study of health inequities

Abstract BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a neglected disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Brazil has the second largest number of cases in the world. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the spatial distribution of leprosy in the state of BAHIA, Brazil, and the association between his occurrence and the synthetic indicators of municipal socioeconomic performance, social vulnerability and income inequality. METHODS: An ecological study with secondary data obtained from the National System of Notifiable Diseases. Dependent variables: coefficient of detection in the general population and in the population under 15 years old and the rate of grade II of physical disability. Independent variables: Synthetic indicators of socioeconomic performance, social vulnerability and income inequality. RESULTS: The highest coefficients of detection of new cases in the general population and in children under 15 years old are concentrated in the north-west axis and in the southern region of the state. On the other hand, the highest rates of degree II of physical incapacity are concentrated in the north, northeast and south regions. Only the Index of Social and Economic Performance(IPESE)-Economy and Finance composed the final regression model of the general detection coefficients and in children under 15 years old. The municipalities with the highest indexes had the highest detection coefficients, reflecting the capacity to diagnose new cases. STUDY LIMITATIONS: The use of synthetic indicators is a limitation of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy presents a heterogeneous spatial pattern in the state of BAHIA, and the IPESE-Economics and Finance indicator is the only one with explanatory potential of the disease.

[Persistence of leprosy in household social networks: overlapping cases and vulnerability in endemic regions in Brazil]. / Persistência da hanseníase em redes de convívio domiciliar: sobreposição de casos e vulnerabilidade em regiões endêmicas no Brasil.

The study sought to analyze the magnitude of occurrence and the sociodemographic, economic and clinical profiles of leprosy associated with household social networks (HSN), with disease overlap in cities from the states of Bahia, Piauí and Rondônia, Brazil, from 2001 to 2014. This is a cross-sectional study using primary and secondary data regarding new cases of leprosy notified to the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN, in Portuguese) residing in the cities. We applied a standardized instrument to the new cases and reviewed data from charts and from SINAN. Of a total of 1,032 (29.6%) assessed cases, 538 (52.1%) had more than one case in their HSN. There were larger frequencies of female sex (292; 54.3%), age between 41 and 60 years (240; 44.6%), primary education (272; 50.6%), income lower than the minimum wage (265; 49.3%) and living with 5 or more people (265; 49.3%). The overlap of cases in the HSN was associated in the multivariate analysis with residing in cities in the state of Rondônia (PR = 1.23; 95%CI: 1.07-1.43; p = 0.003), as well as living with 3 to 4 people in the same household (PR = 1.66; 95%CI: 1.11-2.49; p = 0.014) and having leprosy reaction (PR = 1.31; 95%CI: 0.99-1.70; p = 0.050). Case repetition within the same HSN is a frequent event in the situations we studied. Its occurrence must be considered as a sentinel indicator of greater epidemiological severity in primary health care surveillance. We highlight the vulnerability of affected families.

O estudo tem como objetivo analisar a magnitude da ocorrência e os perfis sociodemográfico, econômico e clínico de casos de hanseníase vinculados à redes de convívio domiciliar (RCD) com sobreposição da doença em municípios dos estados da Bahia, do Piauí e de Rondônia, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2014. Trata-se de estudo transversal, com dados primários e secundários de casos novos de hanseníase, notificados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e residentes nos municípios. Foram realizadas a aplicação de instrumento padronizado aos casos novos e a revisão de dados em prontuários e na base do SINAN. De um total de 1.032 (29,6%) casos de hanseníase abordados, 538 (52,1%) tinham mais de um caso em sua RCD. Maior frequência de pessoas do sexo feminino (292; 54,3%), com idade entre 41 a 60 anos (240; 44,6%), ensino fundamental (272; 50,6%), renda menor que um salário mínimo (265; 49,3%) e residindo com cinco pessoas ou mais (265; 49,3%). A ocorrência de sobreposição de casos na RCD foi associada, na análise multivariada, a residir em municípios do Estado de Rondônia (RP = 1,23; IC95%: 1,07-1,43; p = 0,003), assim como morar com três a quatro pessoas no mesmo domicílio (RP = 1,66; IC95%: 1,11-2,49; p = 0,014) e ter reação hansênica (RP = 1,31; IC95%: 0,99-1,70; p = 0,050). A repetição de casos de hanseníase em uma mesma RCD representa um evento frequente nos cenários abordados. Sua ocorrência deve ser considerada como indicador sentinela de maior gravidade epidemiológica para a vigilância na rede de atenção básica à saúde. Ressalta-se o caráter de vulnerabilidade das famílias acometidas.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la magnitud de la ocurrencia y los perfiles sociodemográficos, económicos y clínicos de casos de lepra, vinculados a las redes de convivencia domiciliaria (RCD), con sobreposición de la enfermedad, en municipios de los estados de Bahía, Piauí y Rondônia, Brasil, durante el período de 2001 a 2014. Se trata de un estudio transversal, con datos primarios y secundarios de casos nuevos de lepra, notificados en el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Obligada Notificación (SINAN, por su sigla en portugués) y residentes en los municipios. Se procedió a la aplicación de un instrumento estandarizado a los casos nuevos y a la revisión de datos en prontuarios y base de datos del SINAN. De un total de 1.032 (29,6%) casos de lepra abordados, 538 (52,1%) tenían más de un caso en su RCD. Existía una mayor frecuencia de personas del sexo femenino (292; 54,3%), con edades comprendidas entre 41 y 60 años (240; 44,6%), enseñanza fundamental (272; 50,6%), renta menor a un salario mínimo (265; 49,3%) y residiendo con 5 personas o más (265; 49,3%). La ocurrencia de sobreposición de casos en la RCD se asoció en el análisis multivariado a residir en municipios del estado de Rondônia (RP = 1,23; IC95%: 1,07-1,43; p = 0,003), así como vivir con de 3 a 4 personas en el mismo domicilio (RP = 1,66; IC95%: 1,11-2,49; p = 0,014) y sufrir reacción leprótica (RP = 1,31; IC95%: 0,99-1,70; p = 0,050). La repetición de casos de lepra en una misma RCD representa un evento frecuente en los escenarios abordados. Su ocurrencia debe ser considerada como un indicador centinela de mayor gravedad epidemiológica para la vigilancia en la red de atención básica en la salud. Se resalta el carácter de vulnerabilidad de las familias participantes.

Trend analysis of leprosy indicators in a hyperendemic Brazilian state, 2001-2015 / Análise da tendência dos indicadores da hanseníase em estado brasileiro hiperendêmico, 2001-2015

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal trend of leprosy indicators in a hyperendemic state of Brazil, from 2001-2015. METHODS This is a time-series study of leprosy indicators in the state of Maranhão, Northeastern region of Brazil. The study used data from the Brazilian National System of Reportable Diseases, for the period between 2001 and 2015. The following indicators were evaluated: (i) detection coefficient in the general population; (ii) detection coefficient in people under 15 years old; (iii) rate of cases with grade 2 physical disability in the diagnosis; (iv) rate of examined contacts, and (v) proportion of healing . The Prais-Winsten regression model was used for trend analysis. Analyses were performed for the state and by each health region. RESULTS 77,697 leprosy cases were analyzed in the general population and 7,599 in individuals under 15 years old. The detection coefficient in the general population ranged from 80.7/100 thousand inhabitants in 2001 to 51.2/100 thousand inhabitants in 2015. The coefficient in the general population presented a downward trend (annual percentage variation [APV] = -2.98; 95%CI -4.15- -1.79). For the population under 15 years old, the rate was 24.9/100 thousand inhabitants in 2001, and 19.9/100 thousand inhabitants in 2015, with downward trend (APV = -3.07; 95%CI -4.95- -1.15). It was observed upward trend in rate of contacts examined (APV = 2.35; 95%CI 0.58-4.15) and rate of cases with grade 2 disability (APV = 2.19; 95%CI 0.23-4.19). Stationary trend was observed in the proportion of healing (APV = -0.10; 95%CI -0.50-0.30). Regional differences were found in the performance of the indicators. CONCLUSIONS A downward trend for the detection coefficients in the general population and in individuals under 15 years old was found in Maranhão. Despite this result, the rates are still very high, demanding efforts from all spheres of public administration and health professionals to reduce the burden of the disease in the state.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a tendência temporal dos indicadores da hanseníase em estado brasileiro hiperendêmico, no período de 2011 a 2015. MÉTODOS Trata-se de um estudo de série temporal dos indicadores de hanseníase no estado do Maranhão, região Nordeste, que utilizou dados do Sistema Nacional de Agravos de Notificação, no período de 2001 a 2015. Foram avaliados os seguintes indicadores: (i) coeficiente de detecção na população em geral; (ii) coeficiente de detecção em menores de 15 anos; (iii) proporção de casos com grau 2 de incapacidade física no diagnóstico; (iv) proporção de contatos examinados e (v) proporção de cura. Para análise da tendência foi utilizado o modelo de regressão de Prais Winsten . As análises foram realizadas para o Estado e por região de saúde. RESULTADOS Foram analisados 77.697 casos de hanseníase na população geral e 7.599 em menores de 15 anos. O coeficiente de detecção na população geral variou de 80,7/100 mil habitantes em 2001 para 51,2/100 mil habitantes em 2015. Verificou-se tendência decrescente do coeficiente na população geral (variação percentual anual [VPA] = -2,98; IC95% -4,15- -1,79). Na população menor de 15 anos, o coeficiente foi de 24,9/100 mil habitantes em 2001 para 19,9/100 mil habitantes em 2015, com tendência decrescente (VPA = -3,07; IC95% -4,95- -1,15). Observou-se tendência crescente na proporção de contatos examinados (VPA = 2,35; IC95%: 0,58-4,15) e na proporção de casos com grau 2 de incapacidade (VPA = 2,19; IC95% 0,23-4,19). Verificou-se tendência estacionária na proporção de cura de hanseníase (VPA = -0,10; IC95% -0,50-0,30). Observaram-se diferenças regionais no desempenho dos indicadores. CONCLUSÕES A tendência dos coeficientes de detecção na população geral e em menores de 15 anos mostrou-se decrescente no Maranhão. Apesar disso, as taxas ainda são muito elevadas, o que exige esforços de todas as esferas de gestão e profissionais da saúde para redução da carga da doença no estado.

Physical disabilities due to leprosy in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil: a temporal and spatial modeling

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring disability trends is required to evaluate leprosy elimination. We assessed the trends in disability indicators and its association with space in Alagoas, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study in all leprosy cases from 2006 to 2016. Disability indicators were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability at diagnosis ranged from 4.7% to 11.9% (annual percent change, 1.4; P= 0.7), while at discharge, it ranged from 0.0% to 12.3% (annual percent change, -21.8; P= 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Disability indicators had a stable trend over the study period.

Persistência da hanseníase em redes de convívio domiciliar: sobreposição de casos e vulnerabilidade em regiões endêmicas no Brasil / Persistence of leprosy in household social networks: overlapping cases and vulnerability in endemic regions in Brazil / Persistencia de la hanseniasis en redes de convivencia domiciliaria: sobreposición de casos y vulnerabilidad en regiones endémicas en Brasil

O estudo tem como objetivo analisar a magnitude da ocorrência e os perfis sociodemográfico, econômico e clínico de casos de hanseníase vinculados à redes de convívio domiciliar (RCD) com sobreposição da doença em municípios dos estados da Bahia, do Piauí e de Rondônia, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2014. Trata-se de estudo transversal, com dados primários e secundários de casos novos de hanseníase, notificados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e residentes nos municípios. Foram realizadas a aplicação de instrumento padronizado aos casos novos e a revisão de dados em prontuários e na base do SINAN. De um total de 1.032 (29,6%) casos de hanseníase abordados, 538 (52,1%) tinham mais de um caso em sua RCD. Maior frequência de pessoas do sexo feminino (292; 54,3%), com idade entre 41 a 60 anos (240; 44,6%), ensino fundamental (272; 50,6%), renda menor que um salário mínimo (265; 49,3%) e residindo com cinco pessoas ou mais (265; 49,3%). A ocorrência de sobreposição de casos na RCD foi associada, na análise multivariada, a residir em municípios do Estado de Rondônia (RP = 1,23; IC95%: 1,07-1,43; p = 0,003), assim como morar com três a quatro pessoas no mesmo domicílio (RP = 1,66; IC95%: 1,11-2,49; p = 0,014) e ter reação hansênica (RP = 1,31; IC95%: 0,99-1,70; p = 0,050). A repetição de casos de hanseníase em uma mesma RCD representa um evento frequente nos cenários abordados. Sua ocorrência deve ser considerada como indicador sentinela de maior gravidade epidemiológica para a vigilância na rede de atenção básica à saúde. Ressalta-se o caráter de vulnerabilidade das famílias acometidas.

The study sought to analyze the magnitude of occurrence and the sociodemographic, economic and clinical profiles of leprosy associated with household social networks (HSN), with disease overlap in cities from the states of Bahia, Piauí and Rondônia, Brazil, from 2001 to 2014. This is a cross-sectional study using primary and secondary data regarding new cases of leprosy notified to the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN, in Portuguese) residing in the cities. We applied a standardized instrument to the new cases and reviewed data from charts and from SINAN. Of a total of 1,032 (29.6%) assessed cases, 538 (52.1%) had more than one case in their HSN. There were larger frequencies of female sex (292; 54.3%), age between 41 and 60 years (240; 44.6%), primary education (272; 50.6%), income lower than the minimum wage (265; 49.3%) and living with 5 or more people (265; 49.3%). The overlap of cases in the HSN was associated in the multivariate analysis with residing in cities in the state of Rondônia (PR = 1.23; 95%CI: 1.07-1.43; p = 0.003), as well as living with 3 to 4 people in the same household (PR = 1.66; 95%CI: 1.11-2.49; p = 0.014) and having leprosy reaction (PR = 1.31; 95%CI: 0.99-1.70; p = 0.050). Case repetition within the same HSN is a frequent event in the situations we studied. Its occurrence must be considered as a sentinel indicator of greater epidemiological severity in primary health care surveillance. We highlight the vulnerability of affected families.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la magnitud de la ocurrencia y los perfiles sociodemográficos, económicos y clínicos de casos de lepra, vinculados a las redes de convivencia domiciliaria (RCD), con sobreposición de la enfermedad, en municipios de los estados de Bahía, Piauí y Rondônia, Brasil, durante el período de 2001 a 2014. Se trata de un estudio transversal, con datos primarios y secundarios de casos nuevos de lepra, notificados en el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Obligada Notificación (SINAN, por su sigla en portugués) y residentes en los municipios. Se procedió a la aplicación de un instrumento estandarizado a los casos nuevos y a la revisión de datos en prontuarios y base de datos del SINAN. De un total de 1.032 (29,6%) casos de lepra abordados, 538 (52,1%) tenían más de un caso en su RCD. Existía una mayor frecuencia de personas del sexo femenino (292; 54,3%), con edades comprendidas entre 41 y 60 años (240; 44,6%), enseñanza fundamental (272; 50,6%), renta menor a un salario mínimo (265; 49,3%) y residiendo con 5 personas o más (265; 49,3%). La ocurrencia de sobreposición de casos en la RCD se asoció en el análisis multivariado a residir en municipios del estado de Rondônia (RP = 1,23; IC95%: 1,07-1,43; p = 0,003), así como vivir con de 3 a 4 personas en el mismo domicilio (RP = 1,66; IC95%: 1,11-2,49; p = 0,014) y sufrir reacción leprótica (RP = 1,31; IC95%: 0,99-1,70; p = 0,050). La repetición de casos de lepra en una misma RCD representa un evento frecuente en los escenarios abordados. Su ocurrencia debe ser considerada como un indicador centinela de mayor gravedad epidemiológica para la vigilancia en la red de atención básica en la salud. Se resalta el carácter de vulnerabilidad de las familias participantes.

Epidemiological and geographical characterization of leprosy in a Brazilian hyperendemic municipality.

This study aimed to identify the distribution pattern of leprosy in a hyperendemic municipality in Brazil and determine its relationship with the clinico-epidemiological situation over 11 years. The geographic information system, MapInfo, spatial scan statistics and the Moran I index were used to analyze new cases. The digital cartographic base was used to map clusters of new paucibacillary and multibacillary cases and cases in minors under 15 years old. Socioeconomic indicators are shown using the choropleth mapping technique. A reduction in the detection coefficient, increases in high-risk spatial clusters, marked changes in the distribution of high-risk and low-risk clusters, and high-risk clusters of minors under 15 years old were observed from 2006 to 2010, showing recent illness, the presence of active foci, and overlapping of high-risk clusters of multibacillary infection in minors under 15 years old. Leprosy remains a public health problem in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso State; the high-risk areas require an intensification of control measures and active search strategies to detect new cases.