The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden - volume 3.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 3.

Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.

The outcome of the movement disorder in methcathinone abusers: clinical, MRI and manganesemia changes, and neuropathology.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is limited knowledge regarding the long-term outcome of the methcathinone/manganese-induced movement disorder. Our purpose was to define prognosis in intravenous methcathinone abusers affected by this distinctive disorder attributed to manganese (Mn) toxicity. Also, neuropathology from a globus pallidus region biopsy from a former user is reported. METHODS: Eighteen methcathinone abusers were categorized as active (five), discontinued (four) or former (nine) users. They were reassessed after a median of 32.5 months (range 3.4-59.6) clinically, on rating scales, and with MRI and blood Mn levels. The biopsy was examined ultrastructurally. RESULTS: Overall the group showed a slight tendency to deterioration at follow-up on clinical assessment of motor functioning, especially the active users. No significant change occurred on parkinsonian rating scale reassessment. Significant reduction in Mn levels occurred in former users, and decreased T1-weighted hyperintensity on basal ganglia MRI occurred in 3 of 4 former and 2 of 3 discontinued users, despite lack of clinical improvement. The biopsy consisted of white matter showing decompacted myelin sheaths and frequent abnormalities of mitochondria. CONCLUSIONS: No improvement in this Mn-induced movement disorder occurs after cessation of methcathinone abuse despite improvement of Mn blood levels and/or MRI abnormalities. Ultrastructural abnormalities in a former user confirm structural damage to white matter is associated with the disorder. Methcathinone/Mn toxicity is an important, disabling and permanent medical sequel of intravenous drug abuse in the former Soviet Union.

Loss to follow-up in an international, multicentre observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to assess loss to follow-up (LTFU) in EuroSIDA, an international multicentre observational cohort study. METHODS: LTFU was defined as no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement after 1 January 2006. Poisson regression was used to describe factors related to LTFU. RESULTS: The incidence of LTFU in 12 304 patients was 3.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-3.86; 2712 LTFU] and varied among countries from 0.67 to 13.35. After adjustment, older patients, those with higher CD4 cell counts, and those who had started combination antiretroviral therapy all had lower incidences of LTFU, while injecting drug users had a higher incidence of LTFU. Compared with patients from Southern Europe and Argentina, patients from Eastern Europe had over a twofold increased incidence of LTFU after adjustment (incidence rate ratio 2.16; 95% CI 1.84-2.53; P<0.0001). A total of 2743 patients had a period of >1 year with no CD4 cell count or viral load measured during the year; 743 (27.1%) subsequently returned to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Some patients thought to be LTFU may have died, and efforts should be made to ascertain vital status wherever possible. A significant proportion of patients who have a year with no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement subsequently return to follow-up.

Regional differences in the risk of triple class failure in European patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy after 1 January 1999.

Regional differences across Europe in triple class failure (TCF; the failure of each of the three separate main classes of antiretrovirals (ARVs) with a viral load >1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL for >4 months) have not been described. A total of 1956 patients started combination ARV therapy after 1 January 1999, of whom 123 patients developed TCF [6.3%; incidence 16.7 per 1000 person-years of follow-up; 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.7-19.6]. After adjustment, patients from Eastern Europe had a significantly increased incidence of TCF compared with patients from Southern Europe/Argentina (3.05; 95% CI 1.36-6.82; P=0.0067) while patients taking either a boosted protease inhibitor regimen (0.33; 95% CI 0.15-0.74; P=0.0072) or a nonnucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen (0.59; 95% CI 0.37-0.94; P=0.026) had a reduced incidence of TCF.