Potential of hotspot solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence for better tracking terrestrial photosynthesis.

Remote sensing of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) opens a new window for quantifying a key ecological variable, the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), because of the revealed strong SIF-GPP correlation. However, similar to many other remotely sensed metrics, SIF observations suffer from the sun-sensor geometry effects, which may have important impacts on the SIF-GPP relationship but remain poorly understood. Here we used remotely sensed SIF, globally distributed tower GPP data, and a mechanistic model to provide a systematic analysis. Our results reveal that leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun-sensor geometries all affect the SIF-GPP relationship. In particular, we found that SIF observations in the sun-tracking hotspot direction can be a better proxy of GPP due to the similar responses of light use efficiency and SIF escaping probability in the hotspot direction to the increasing incoming solar radiation. Such conclusions are supported by a variety of modeling simulations and satellite observations over various plant function types, at different time scales and with satellite observational modes. This study demonstrates the potential and advantage of normalizing SIF observations to the hotspot direction for better global GPP estimations. This study also demonstrates the great potentials of current and future spaceborne sun-tracking satellite missions for a significant improvement in measuring and monitoring, at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the changes in terrestrial ecosystem GPP in response to anticipated changes in the Earth's environmental conditions.

Advances in Quantitative Earth Remote Sensing: Past, Present and Future.

A combination of multispectral visible, infra-red and microwave sensors on the constellation of international Earth-observing satellites are providing unprecedented observations for all Earth domains over multiple decades (i.e., atmosphere, land, oceans and polar regions). This Special Issue of Sensors is dedicated to papers that describe such advances in the field of Earth remote sensing and their applications to advance understanding of Earth's planetary system and applying the resulting knowledge and information to meet the societal needs during recent decades. The papers accepted and published in this issue convey the exciting scientific and technical challenges and opportunities for remote sensing of all domains of Earth system, including terrestrial, aquatic and coastal ecosystems; bathymetry of coasts and islands; oceans and lakes; measurement of soil moisture and land surface temperature that affects both water resources and food production; and advances in use of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) in measuring and monitoring the contribution of terrestrial vegetation in the cycling of carbon in Earth's system. Measurements of SIF, for example, has had a profound impact on the field of terrestrial ecosystems research and modelling. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCVR) satellite located at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point One, about 1.5 million miles away from Earth, is providing unique observations of the Earth's full sun-lit disk from pole-to-pole and minute-by-minute, which overcomes a major limitation in temporal coverage of Earth by other polar-orbiting Earth-observing satellites. Active and passive microwave remote sensing instruments allow all-weather measurements and monitoring of clouds, weather phenomena, land-surface temperature and soil moisture by overcoming the presence of clouds that affect measurements by visible and infrared sensors. The use of powerful in-space lasers is allowing scientists and engineers to measure and monitor rapidly changing ice sheets in polar regions and mountain glaciers. These sensors and their measurements that are deployed on major space-based observatories and small- and micro-satellites, and the scientific knowledge they provide, are enhancing our understanding of planet Earth and development of Earth system models that are used increasingly to project future conditions due to Earth's rapidly changing environmental conditions. Such knowledge and information are benefiting people, businesses and governments worldwide.

Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the conterminous United States.

The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003-2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days. Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6-6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. The quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology.

Beyond crystal balls: crosscutting solutions in global health to prepare for an unpredictable future.

BACKGROUND: Efforts in global heath need to deal not only with current challenges, but also to anticipate new scenarios, which sometimes unfold at lightning speed. Predictive modeling is frequently used to assist planning, but outcomes depend heavily on a subset of critical assumptions, which are mostly hampered by our limited knowledge about the many factors, mechanisms and relationships that determine the dynamics of disease systems, by a lack of data to parameterize and validate models, and by uncertainties about future scenarios. DISCUSSION: We propose a shift from a focus on the prediction of individual disease patterns to the identification and mitigation of broader fragilities in public health systems. Modeling capabilities should be used to perform "stress tests" on how interrelated fragilities respond when faced with a range of possible or plausible threats of different nature and intensity. This system should be able to reveal crosscutting solutions with the potential to address not only one threat, but multiple areas of vulnerability to future health risks. Actionable knowledge not based on a narrow subset of threats and conditions can better guide policy, build societal resilience and ensure effective prevention in an uncertain world.

Artificial light at night: an underappreciated effect on phenology of deciduous woody plants.

Artificial light at night (ALAN), an increasing anthropogenic driver, is widespread and shows rapid expansion with potential adverse impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. However, whether and to what extent does ALAN affect plant phenology, a critical factor influencing the timing of terrestrial ecosystem processes, remains unexplored due to limited ALAN observation. Here, we used the Black Marble ALAN product and phenology observations from USA National Phenology Network to investigate the impact of ALAN on deciduous woody plants phenology in the conterminous United States. We found that (1) ALAN significantly advanced the date of breaking leaf buds by 8.9 ± 6.9 days (mean ± SD) and delayed the coloring of leaves by 6.0 ± 11.9 days on average; (2) the magnitude of phenological changes was significantly correlated with the intensity of ALAN (P < 0.001); and (3) there was an interaction between ALAN and temperature on the coloring of leaves, but not on breaking leaf buds. We further showed that under future climate warming scenarios, ALAN will accelerate the advance in breaking leaf buds but exert a more complex effect on the coloring of leaves. This study suggests intensified ALAN may have far-reaching but underappreciated consequences in disrupting key ecosystem functions and services, which requires an interdisciplinary approach to investigate. Developing lighting strategies that minimize the impact of ALAN on ecosystems, especially those embedded and surrounding major cities, is challenging but must be pursued.

Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.

Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

BACKGROUND: Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. RESULTS: Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. CONCLUSIONS: Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help distinguish livestock methane emissions from those of other sectors in future top-down studies. The revised estimates allow improved reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane emissions, will facilitate the development and evaluation of Earth system models, and provide consistent regional and global Tier 1 estimates for environmental assessments.

Characterizing spatiotemporal dynamics in phenology of urban ecosystems based on Landsat data.

Seasonal phenology of vegetation plays an important role in global carbon cycle and ecosystem productivity. In urban environments, vegetation phenology is also important because of its influence on public health (e.g., allergies), and energy demand (e.g. cooling effects). In this study, we studied the potential use of remotely sensed observations (i.e. Landsat data) to derive some phenology indicators for vegetation embedded within the urban core domains in four distinctly different U.S. regions (Washington, D.C., King County in Washington, Polk County in Iowa, and Baltimore City and County in Maryland) during the past three decades. We used all available Landsat observations (circa 3000 scenes) from 1982 to 2015 and a self-adjusting double logistic model to detect and quantify the annual change of vegetation phenophases, i.e. indicators of seasonal changes in vegetation. The proposed model can capture and quantify not only phenophases of dense vegetation in rural areas, but also those of mixed vegetation in urban core domains. The derived phenology indicators show a good agreement with similar indicators derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and in situ observations, suggesting that the phenology dynamic depicted by the proposed model is reliable. The vegetation phenology and its seasonal and interannual dynamics demonstrate a distinct spatial pattern in urban domains with an earlier (9-14days) start-of-season (SOS) and a later (13-20days) end-of-season (EOS), resulting in an extended (5-30days) growing season length (GSL) when compared to the surrounding suburban and rural areas in the four study regions. There is a general long-term trend of decreasing SOS (-0.30day per year), and increasing EOS and GSL (0.50 and 0.90day per year, respectively) over past three decades for these study regions. The magnitude of these trends varies among the four urban systems due to their diverse local climate conditions, vegetation types, and different urban-rural settings. The Landsat derived phenology information for urban domains provides more details when compared to the coarse-resolution datasets such as MODIS, thus improves our understanding of human-natural systems interactions (or feedbacks) in urban domains. Such information is very valuable for urban planning in light of rapid urbanization and expansion of major metropolitans at the national and global levels.

The surface urban heat island response to urban expansion: A panel analysis for the conterminous United States.

Urban heat island (UHI), the phenomenon that urban areas experience higher temperatures compared to their surrounding rural areas, has significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts. With current and anticipated rapid urbanization, improved understanding of the response of UHI to urbanization is important for developing effective adaptation measures and mitigation strategies. Current studies mainly focus on a single or a few big cities and knowledge on the response of UHI to urbanization for large areas is limited. As a major indicator of urbanization, urban area size lends itself well for representation in prognostic models. However, we have little knowledge on how UHI responds to urban area size increase and its spatial and temporal variation over large areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between surface UHI (SUHI) and urban area size in the climate and ecological context, and its spatial and temporal variations, based on a panel analysis of about 5000 urban areas of 10km2 or larger, in the conterminous U.S. We found statistically significant positive relationship between SUHI and urban area size, and doubling the urban area size led to a SUHI increase as high as 0.7°C. The response of SUHI to the increase of urban area size shows spatial and temporal variations, with stronger SUHI increase in Northern U.S., and during daytime and summer. Urban area size alone can explain as much as 87% of the variance of SUHI among cities studied, but with large spatial and temporal variations. Urban area size shows higher association with SUHI in regions where the thermal characteristics of land cover surrounding the urban area are more homogeneous, such as in Eastern U.S., and in the summer months. This study provides a practical approach for large-scale assessment and modeling of the impact of urbanization on SUHI, both spatially and temporally.

The Role of Climate Covariability on Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States.

The covariability of temperature (T), precipitation (P) and radiation (R) is an important aspect in understanding the climate influence on crop yields. Here, we analyze county-level corn and soybean yields and observed climate for the period 1983-2012 to understand how growing-season (June, July and August) mean T, P and R influence crop yields jointly and in isolation across the CONterminous United States (CONUS). Results show that nationally averaged corn and soybean yields exhibit large interannual variability of 21% and 22%, of which 35% and 32% can be significantly explained by T and P, respectively. By including R, an additional of 5% in variability can be explained for both crops. Using partial regression analyses, we find that studies that ignore the covariability among T, P, and R can substantially overestimate the sensitivity of crop yields to a single climate factor at the county scale. Further analyses indicate large spatial variation in the relative contributions of different climate variables to the variability of historical corn and soybean yields. The structure of the dominant climate factors did not change substantially over 1983-2012, confirming the robustness of the findings, which have important implications for crop yield prediction and crop model validations.

Spatial patterns and environmental controls of particulate organic carbon in surface waters in the conterminous United States.

Carbon cycling in inland waters has been identified as an important, but poorly constrained component of the global carbon cycle. In this study, we compile and analyze particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration data from 1145 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations to investigate the spatial variability and environmental controls of POC concentration. We observe substantial spatial variability in POC concentration (1.43 ± 2.56 mg C/L, mean ± one standard deviation), with the Upper Mississippi River basin and the Piedmont region in the eastern U.S. having the highest POC concentration. Further, we employ generalized linear models (GLMs) to analyze the impacts of sediment transport and algae growth as well as twenty-one other environmental factors on the POC variability. Suspended sediment and chlorophyll-a explain 26% and 17% of the variability in POC concentration, respectively. At the national level, the twenty-one environmental factors combined can explain ca. 40% of the spatial variance in POC concentration. At the national scale, urban area and soil clay content show significant negative correlations with POC concentration, whereas soil water content and soil bulk density correlate positively with POC. In addition, total phosphorus concentration and dam density correlate positively with POC concentration. Furthermore, regional scale analyses reveal substantial variation in environmental controls of POC concentration across eighteen major water resource regions in the U.S. The POC concentration and associated environmental controls also vary non-monotonically from headwaters to large rivers. These findings indicate complex interactions among multiple factors in regulating POC concentration over different spatial scales and across various sections of the river networks. This complexity, together with the large unexplained uncertainty, highlights the need for considering non-linear interplays of multiple environmental factors and developing appropriate methodologies to track the transformation and transport of POC along the terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems.

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.