Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥ 65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION: In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Physical activity and risk of bleeding in elderly patients taking anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND: Although the possibility of bleeding during anticoagulant treatment may limit patients from taking part in physical activity, the association between physical activity and anticoagulation-related bleeding is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether physical activity is associated with bleeding in elderly patients taking anticoagulants. PATIENTS/METHODS: In a prospective multicenter cohort study of 988 patients aged ≥ 65 years receiving anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism, we assessed patients' self-reported physical activity level. The primary outcome was the time to a first major bleeding, defined as fatal bleeding, symptomatic bleeding in a critical site, or bleeding causing a fall in hemoglobin or leading to transfusions. The secondary outcome was the time to a first clinically relevant non-major bleeding. We examined the association between physical activity level and time to a first bleeding by using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 22 months, patients with a low, moderate, and high physical activity level had an incidence of major bleeding of 11.6, 6.3, and 3.1 events per 100 patient-years and an incidence of clinically relevant non-major bleeding of 14.0, 10.3, and 7.7 events per 100 patient-years, respectively. A high physical activity level was significantly associated with a lower risk of major bleeding (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.22-0.72). There was no association between physical activity and non-major bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: A high level of physical activity is associated with a decreased risk of major bleeding in elderly patients receiving anticoagulant therapy.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elder patients with a pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are well-known clinical prognostic scores for a pulmonary embolism (PE). OBJECTIVES: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with a PE. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low vs. higher risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤ 2 vs. > 2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥ 1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC). RESULTS: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P < 0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared with 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P = 0.47). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Modelling of components of the human middle ear and simulation of their dynamic behaviour.

In order to get a better insight into the function of the human middle ear it is necessary to simulate its dynamic behaviour by means of the finite-element method. Three-dimensional measurements of the surfaces of the tympanic membrane and of the auditory ossicles malleus, incus and stapes are carried out and geometrical models are created. On the basis of these data, finite-element models are constructed and the dynamic behaviour of the combinations tympanic membrane with malleus in its elastic suspensions and stapes with annular ligament is simulated. Natural frequencies and mode shapes are computed by modal analysis. These investigations showed that the ossicles can be treated as rigid bodies only in a restricted frequency range from 0 to 3.5 kHz.