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1.
Epidemiol Infect ; 146(15): 1922-1927, 2018 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29976259

ABSTRACT

In September 2015, an outbreak of Escherichia coli Phage Type 32 with an indistinguishable multi locus variable number tandem repeat analysis profile was identified in Scotland. Twelve cases were identified; nine primary cases, two secondary and one asymptomatic case. Extensive food history investigations identified venison products containing wild venison produced by a single food business operator as the most likely source of the outbreak. Of the nine primary cases, eight had consumed venison products, and one case had not eaten venison themselves but had handled and cooked raw venison in the household. This was the first reported outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) linked to venison products in the UK, and was also notable due to the implicated products being commercially produced and widely distributed. In contrast, previous venison outbreaks reported from other countries have tended to be smaller and related to individually prepared carcases. The outbreak has highlighted some important knowledge gaps in relation to STEC in venison that are currently been investigated via a number of research studies.


Subject(s)
Bacteriophage Typing , Disease Outbreaks , Escherichia coli Infections/epidemiology , Escherichia coli O157/classification , Escherichia coli O157/isolation & purification , Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Genotyping Techniques , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Meat Products/microbiology , Middle Aged , Minisatellite Repeats , Scotland/epidemiology , Young Adult
2.
Epidemiol Infect ; 145(2): 289-298, 2017 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27780484

ABSTRACT

Since April 2015, whole genome sequencing (WGS) has been the routine test for Salmonella identification, surveillance and outbreak investigation at the national reference laboratory in England and Wales. In May 2015, an outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis cases was detected using WGS data and investigated. UK cases were interviewed to obtain a food history and links between suppliers were mapped to produce a food chain network for chicken eggs. The association between the food chain network and the phylogeny was explored using a network comparison approach. Food and environmental samples were taken from premises linked to cases and tested for Salmonella. Within the outbreak single nucleotide polymorphism defined cluster, 136 cases were identified in the UK and 18 in Spain. One isolate from a food containing chicken eggs was within the outbreak cluster. There was a significant association between the chicken egg food chain of UK cases and phylogeny of outbreak isolates. This is the first published Salmonella outbreak to be prospectively detected using WGS. This outbreak in the UK was linked with contemporaneous cases in Spain by WGS. We conclude that UK and Spanish cases were exposed to a common source of Salmonella-contaminated chicken eggs.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology , Genome, Bacterial , High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing , Salmonella Infections/epidemiology , Salmonella enteritidis/classification , Salmonella enteritidis/genetics , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Animals , Chickens , Child , Child, Preschool , Cluster Analysis , Eggs/microbiology , Female , Foodborne Diseases/microbiology , Humans , Infant , Male , Meat/microbiology , Middle Aged , Molecular Epidemiology , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide , Salmonella Infections/microbiology , Salmonella enteritidis/isolation & purification , Spain/epidemiology , Surveys and Questionnaires , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Young Adult
3.
Epidemiol Infect ; 144(5): 968-75, 2016 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26424497

ABSTRACT

In November 2013, national public health agencies in England and Scotland identified an increase in laboratory-confirmed Salmonella Mikawasima. The role of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) as a risk factor for salmonellosis is unclear; we therefore captured information on PPI usage as part of our outbreak investigation. We conducted a case-control study, comparing each case with two controls. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Thirty-nine of 61 eligible cases were included in the study. The median age of cases was 45 years; 56% were female. Of these, 33% were admitted to hospital and 31% reported taking PPIs. We identified an association between PPIs and non-typhoidal salmonellosis (aOR 8·8, 95% CI 2·0-38·3). There is increasing evidence supporting the existence of an association between salmonellosis and PPIs; however, biological studies are needed to understand the effect of PPIs in the pathogenesis of Salmonella. We recommend future outbreak studies investigate PPI usage to strengthen evidence on the relevance of PPIs in Salmonella infection. These findings should be used to support the development of guidelines for patients and prescribers on the risk of gastrointestinal infection and PPI usage.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Proton Pump Inhibitors/administration & dosage , Salmonella Infections/epidemiology , Salmonella enterica/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Case-Control Studies , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Proton Pump Inhibitors/adverse effects , Risk Factors , Salmonella Infections/chemically induced , Scotland/epidemiology , Wales/epidemiology , Young Adult
4.
Proc Biol Sci ; 279(1743): 3861-9, 2012 Sep 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22787025

ABSTRACT

Kin selection theory has been the central model for understanding the evolution of cooperative breeding, where non-breeders help bear the cost of rearing young. Recently, the dominance of this idea has been questioned; particularly in obligate cooperative breeders where breeding without help is uncommon and seldom successful. In such systems, the direct benefits gained through augmenting current group size have been hypothesized to provide a tractable alternative (or addition) to kin selection. However, clear empirical tests of the opposing predictions are lacking. Here, we provide convincing evidence to suggest that kin selection and not group augmentation accounts for decisions of whether, where and how often to help in an obligate cooperative breeder, the chestnut-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus ruficeps). We found no evidence that group members base helping decisions on the size of breeding units available in their social group, despite both correlational and experimental data showing substantial variation in the degree to which helpers affect productivity in units of different size. By contrast, 98 per cent of group members with kin present helped, 100 per cent directed their care towards the most related brood in the social group, and those rearing half/full-sibs helped approximately three times harder than those rearing less/non-related broods. We conclude that kin selection plays a central role in the maintenance of cooperative breeding in this species, despite the apparent importance of living in large groups.


Subject(s)
Cooperative Behavior , Reproduction , Selection, Genetic , Songbirds/physiology , Animals , New South Wales , Seasons
5.
Colorectal Dis ; 14(3): 270-81, 2012 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20977587

ABSTRACT

AIM: The aim of this study was to identify and synthesize the hospital discharge criteria that have been used in the colorectal surgery literature. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using eight bibliographic databases. Searches were limited to English language journal articles published between January 1996 and October 2009. Primary research applying hospital discharge criteria following colorectal surgery was included. Study selection was made independently by two reviewers. Discharge criteria were extracted from each included study. RESULTS: The 156 studies identified by the search strategy described 70 different sets of criteria to indicate readiness for discharge. The majority of studies applied a combination of three or four criteria; those most frequently cited were tolerance of oral intake (80%), return of bowel function (70%), adequate pain control (44%) and adequate mobility (35%). End-points employed to determine the achievement of criteria were generally poorly defined. CONCLUSION: A variety of hospital discharge criteria were applied in the colorectal surgery literature. Development of standardized criteria will allow more accurate comparison of results between studies assessing hospital length of stay or other discharge-related outcome measures.


Subject(s)
Colon/surgery , Digestive System Surgical Procedures/standards , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Patient Discharge/standards , Rectum/surgery , Humans , Length of Stay , Pain Management , Postoperative Period , Recovery of Function
6.
Euro Surveill ; 16(49): 20036, 2011 Dec 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22172331

ABSTRACT

An investigation is currently underway to explain an outbreak of food-borne botulism in Scotland. Three children in the same family were confirmed as having botulism following consumption of a meal made with a jar of korma sauce. Residual sauce from the jar, the jar lid and a remnant of the meal, all tested positive for Clostridium botulinum type A toxin. The children are recovering, although two remain ventilated and in intensive care unit.


Subject(s)
Botulinum Toxins, Type A , Botulism/diagnosis , Botulism/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Food, Preserved/microbiology , Botulinum Toxins, Type A/adverse effects , Botulism/etiology , Child , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Food Contamination , Food, Preserved/adverse effects , Humans , Scotland/epidemiology , United Kingdom/epidemiology
7.
Perioper Med (Lond) ; 10(1): 36, 2021 Oct 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34689825

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Preoperative education and breathing exercise training by a physiotherapist minimises pulmonary complications after abdominal surgery. Effects on specific clinical outcomes such as antibiotic prescriptions, chest imaging, sputum cultures, oxygen requirements, and diagnostic coding are unknown. METHODS: This post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data within a double-blinded, multicentre, randomised controlled trial involving 432 participants having major abdominal surgery explored effects of preoperative education and breathing exercise training with a physiotherapist on postoperative antibiotic prescriptions, hypoxemia, sputum cultures, chest imaging, auscultation, leukocytosis, pyrexia, oxygen therapy, and diagnostic coding, compared to a control group who received a booklet alone. All participants received standardised postoperative early ambulation. Outcomes were assessed daily for 14 postoperative days. Analyses were intention-to-treat using adjusted generalised multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Preoperative physiotherapy was associated with fewer antibiotic prescriptions specific for a respiratory infection (RR 0.52; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.85, p = 0.01), less purulent sputum on the third and fourth postoperative days (RR 0.50; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.73, p = 0.01), fewer positive sputum cultures from the third to fifth postoperative day (RR 0.17; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.77, p = 0.01), and less oxygen therapy requirements (RR 0.49; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.78, p = 0.002). Treatment effects were specific to respiratory clinical coding domains. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative physiotherapy prevents postoperative pulmonary complications and is associated with the minimisation of signs and symptoms of pulmonary collapse/consolidation and airway infection and specifically results in reduced oxygen therapy requirements and antibiotic prescriptions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR 12613000664741 ; 19/06/2013.

8.
Euro Surveill ; 15(2)2010 Jan 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20085694

ABSTRACT

An investigation is currently underway to explore and control an outbreak of Bacillus anthracis among drug users (mainly injecting) in Scotland. Contaminated heroin or a contaminated cutting agent mixed with the heroin is considered to be the most likely source and vehicle of infection. Heroin users have been advised of the risk. The risk to the general public is regarded as very low.


Subject(s)
Anthrax/etiology , Bacillus anthracis/isolation & purification , Disease Outbreaks , Substance Abuse, Intravenous/microbiology , Adult , Female , Heroin/administration & dosage , Heroin/adverse effects , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Scotland/epidemiology
9.
Euro Surveill ; 15(48)2010 Dec 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21144449

ABSTRACT

We report the preliminary findings of the investigation of an outbreak of foodborne Salmonella Bareilly. Between August and November 2010, there were 231 laboratory-confirmed reports of S. Bareilly in the United Kingdom. A case­control study showed that consumption of bean sprouts was significantly associated with illness. The investigation concluded that raising public awareness to ensure the correct preparation of raw bean sprouts during cooking was the principal means of preventing further cases.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology , Salmonella Food Poisoning/epidemiology , Salmonella/isolation & purification , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Cooking , Fabaceae , Female , Food Supply , Foodborne Diseases/microbiology , Foodborne Diseases/prevention & control , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Salmonella/classification , Salmonella Food Poisoning/etiology , Salmonella Food Poisoning/microbiology , Salmonella Food Poisoning/prevention & control , Seeds/microbiology , United Kingdom/epidemiology
10.
Rev Sci Instrum ; 91(9): 093505, 2020 Sep 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33003822

ABSTRACT

Proton radiography is a well-established technique for measuring electromagnetic fields in high-energy-density plasmas. Fusion reactions producing monoenergetic particles, such as D3He, are commonly used as a source, produced by a capsule implosion. Using smaller capsules for radiography applications is advantageous as the source size decreases, but on the National Ignition Facility (NIF), this can introduce complications from increasing blow-by light, since the phase plate focal spot size is much larger than the capsules. We report a demonstration of backlighter targets where a "Saturn" ring is placed around the capsule to block this light. The nuclear performance of the backlighters is unperturbed by the addition of a ring. We also test a ring with an equatorial cutout, which severely affects the proton emission and is not viable for radiography applications. These results demonstrate the general viability of Saturn ring backlighter targets for use on the NIF.

11.
Science ; 161(3845): 1022-3, 1968 Sep 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-5671478

ABSTRACT

d-Lysergic acid diethylamide causes a significant increase in recessive lethal mutations in the X chromosome of Drosophila males after intraperitoneal injection of massive doses.


Subject(s)
Chromosome Aberrations/chemically induced , Drosophila , Lysergic Acid Diethylamide/pharmacology , Mutation/drug effects , Animals , Chromosome Disorders , Injections, Intraperitoneal , Male , Testis/drug effects
12.
Behav Ecol ; 27(4): 1247-1254, 2016.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27418754

ABSTRACT

Experiments designed to quantify the effects of increasing numbers of carers on levels of offspring care are rare in cooperative breeding systems, where offspring are reared by individuals additional to the breeding pair. This paucity might stem from disagreement over the most appropriate manipulations necessary to elucidate these effects. Here, we perform both carer removal and brood enhancement experiments to test the effects of numbers of carers and carer:offspring ratios on provisioning rates in the cooperatively breeding chestnut-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus ruficeps). Removing carers caused linear reductions in overall brood provisioning rates. Further analyses failed to provide evidence that this effect was influenced by territory quality or disruption of group dynamics stemming from the removals. Likewise, adding nestlings to broods caused linear increases in brood provisioning rates, suggesting carers are responsive to increasing offspring demand. However, the 2 experiments did not generate quantitatively equivalent results: Each nestling received more food following brood size manipulation than carer removal, despite comparable carer:offspring ratios in each. Following an at-hatching split-design cross-fostering manipulation to break any links between prehatching maternal effects and posthatching begging patterns, we found that begging intensity increased in larger broods after controlling for metrics of hunger. These findings suggest that manipulation of brood size can, in itself, influence nestling provisioning rates when begging intensity is affected by scramble competition. We highlight that carer number and brood size manipulations are complimentary but not equivalent; adopting both can yield greater overall insight into carer effects in cooperative breeding systems.

14.
Vet Rec ; 157(22): 697-702, 2005 Nov 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16311383

ABSTRACT

All the human and animal laboratory reports of zoonoses sent to Health Protection Scotland between 1993 and 2002 were identified. There were 24,946 reports from veterinary laboratories, and 94,718 (20 per cent) of the 468,214 reports from medical laboratories were considered to be zoonotic. The most common reports of zoonoses from people were Campylobacter, Salmonella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia species and Escherichia coli o157. The most common reports of zoonoses from animals were Salmonella, Cryptosporidium, Chlamydia and Campylobacter species and Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis. For all the zoonoses in people, the National Health Service Board areas Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Forth Valley, Grampian, Lanarkshire and Lothian had a higher than expected standardised incidence rate of infection, whereas Ayrshire and Arran, Fife, Greater Glasgow, Shetland, Tayside and Western Isles had a lower than expected rate. The organisms and diseases considered to be new and emerging were Rhodococcus species, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Leishmania species, Pneumocystis carinii (jiroveci) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy/variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Zoonoses , Animals , Humans , Laboratories/statistics & numerical data , Medical Records , Retrospective Studies , Scotland/epidemiology
15.
Metabolism ; 53(7): 899-903, 2004 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15254884

ABSTRACT

To understand the role of inflammation in chronic disease it is important to have a reliable measure of habitual inflammatory status. A number of acute-phase response markers have been used as measures of inflammatory status, but the ability of a single measure to appropriately reflect habitual inflammatory status has not been assessed. This study compares the ability of different inflammatory markers to characterize habitual inflammatory status in overweight women. A single fasting blood sample was taken from 86 overweight women (mean body mass index [BMI], 35.2 kg/m2; range, 26.2 to 47.6 kg/m2) and a number of inflammatory markers (both acute-phase response markers and cytokines) were measured. A randomly selected subpopulation of 15 women attended on 2 further occasions for further blood samples. Using the subpopulation, discrimination ratios (DRs) were calculated for each inflammatory marker to assess the within-subject variability. The DRs were then used to determine the relationship between these markers, adjusted for within-subject variability, in the whole population. In this highly controlled experimental environment, interleukin-6 (IL-6), with a DR of 3.71, was the cytokine with the greatest ability to discriminate between subjects, suggesting that it is best able to characterize habitual inflammatory status. Sialic acid was the acute-phase response marker with the highest DR (3.16), and showed stronger correlations with other inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), than IL-6. This study suggests that use of some inflammatory markers, such as CRP, with large within-individual variability, will underestimate the relationship between inflammation and disease, and thus relationships between inflammation and chronic disease may be stronger than previously appreciated. Future studies should consider IL-6 or sialic acid to provide a more robust measure of inflammatory status.


Subject(s)
Biomarkers/analysis , Inflammation/metabolism , Acute-Phase Proteins/metabolism , Adult , Aged , Algorithms , Body Mass Index , Body Weight , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , Chronic Disease , Cytokines/blood , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , N-Acetylneuraminic Acid/blood , Obesity/metabolism
16.
J Med Microbiol ; 36(3): 164-71, 1992 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-1548690

ABSTRACT

A collection of 201 isolates of Staphylococcus aureus was examined: 152 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) comprised 48 blood culture isolates (BC) and 58 isolates from routine diagnostic specimens (RD) from Glasgow Royal Infirmary (GRI), and 46 strains from nasal swabs of patients attending a general practitioner (GP); 49 isolates were of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) from GRI. We have previously shown that the MRSA could be divided into two sub-groups on the basis of sensitivity or resistance to aminoglycoside antibiotics. Production of enterotoxins A, B, C and D, and alpha-, beta-, gamma- and delta- haemolysins was detected by reverse passive latex agglutination (RPLA) and agar overlay methods respectively: 60% of BC MSSA and a similar proportion of MSSA from other sources produced enterotoxin; 87% of aminoglycoside-sensitive MRSA produced enterotoxin (89% of these produced enterotoxin A alone) whereas only 27% of aminoglycoside-resistant MRSA were enterotoxin-positive, significantly less than either MSSA or aminoglycoside-sensitive MRSA. The proportion of haemolysin-producing isolates did not differ amongst the isolates of MSSA and MRSA; there was no difference in the distributions of haemolysins between aminoglycoside-sensitive and -resistant strains of MRSA. GP MSSA had higher and lower numbers of gamma- and delta-haemolysin producers respectively than other S. aureus isolates. alpha-Haemolysin producers were commoner amongst MRSA isolates, which were also more likely than MSSA isolates to produce several haemolysins. Differences in enterotoxin production between aminoglycoside-sensitive and -resistant MRSA isolates reflect subgroups previously defined by biotype, phage type, immunoblot and restriction enzyme fragmentation pattern data, and provide further evidence for the existence of two major MRSA clones in GRI.


Subject(s)
Enterotoxins/biosynthesis , Hemolysin Proteins/biosynthesis , Methicillin Resistance , Methicillin/pharmacology , Staphylococcus aureus/drug effects , Aminoglycosides , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Enterotoxins/analysis , Hemolysin Proteins/analysis , Humans , Latex Fixation Tests , Reagent Kits, Diagnostic , Staphylococcus aureus/classification , Staphylococcus aureus/pathogenicity
17.
Euro Surveill ; 8(2): 35-40, 2003 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12631973

ABSTRACT

PFGE analysis of S. Java strains (29 from humans, 30 from poultry meat) showed two major clusters. All isolates from poultry imported from the Netherlands belonged to Cluster A, which also comprised 10 human isolates. Thirty-one of the 37 isolates in this cluster had an identical JavX1 pattern, similar to the X8 profile of a particular S. Java clone predominant in poultry production in several European countries. Cluster B comprised 19 human isolates and two poultry isolates of unknown origin. These results combined with epidemiological data and information on the origins of poultry meat strongly suggested that imported poultry meat is an important source of Java infections in humans in Scotland.


Subject(s)
Poultry/microbiology , Salmonella Infections/epidemiology , Salmonella paratyphi B/isolation & purification , Animals , Drug Resistance, Bacterial , Electrophoresis, Gel, Pulsed-Field , Humans , Salmonella Infections/transmission , Salmonella paratyphi B/classification , Salmonella paratyphi B/drug effects , Scotland/epidemiology , Serotyping
18.
Res Dev Disabil ; 22(2): 151-64, 2001.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11325162

ABSTRACT

Adults with severe multiple disabilities constitute a very small percentage of individuals in supported work. When these persons do obtain community jobs, considerable assistance is usually required. We evaluated an off-site/on-site program for reducing job coach assistance provided for three adults with severe multiple disabilities in a part-time community job. Following observations of the supported workers' job performance in a publishing company, the job support reduction program was implemented while the individuals received more traditional day services when not at work. The program involved assessing the amount and type of assistance provided for each step in a worker's job tasks, and then reducing the assistance through environmental adaptations and instruction. After implementation in the nonwork setting, the adaptations and instruction were extended to the work site. Immediate reductions occurred in the amount of assistance provided by job coaches for each supported worker while on the job. No adverse effects on productivity were observed. These results suggest that an off-site/on-site approach to reducing work assistance represents a viable alternative to current supported work models. Social validity observations in 10 job sites highlighted the need to demonstrate ways to reduce work assistance provided for workers with severe multiple disabilities. Future research areas are noted, focusing on evaluating other models for enhancing supported work opportunities for people with highly significant disabilities.


Subject(s)
Disabled Persons/psychology , Employment, Supported , Extinction, Psychological , Rehabilitation, Vocational , Adaptation, Psychological , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Severity of Illness Index , Workplace
19.
J Appl Behav Anal ; 34(3): 341-4, 2001.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11678530

ABSTRACT

We attempted to increase one aspect of self-determination among 3 supported workers with multiple disabilities. Following Baer's (1998) self-determination conceptualization, the workers were exposed to two conditions that involved working more versus less independently based on availability of assistive devices. Next, their condition preferences were assessed and honored. All participants consistently chose the more independent condition. Results reflect how self-determination may be enhanced by giving workers increased control over work situations.


Subject(s)
Disabled Persons/psychology , Employment, Supported , Personal Autonomy , Adult , Aged , Choice Behavior , Disability Evaluation , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged
20.
Physiotherapy ; 100(1): 47-53, 2014 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23958308

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: (1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary Australian referral centre. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. RESULTS: Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials.


Subject(s)
Digestive System Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology , Aged , Australia , Comorbidity , Female , Health Behavior , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Tertiary Care Centers
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