Dynamics of sputum conversion during effective tuberculosis treatment: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Two weeks' isolation is widely recommended for people commencing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The evidence that this corresponds to clearance of potentially infectious tuberculous mycobacteria in sputum is not well established. This World Health Organization-commissioned review investigated sputum sterilisation dynamics during TB treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For the main analysis, 2 systematic literature searches of OvidSP MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and EBSCO CINAHL Plus were conducted to identify studies with data on TB infectiousness (all studies to search date, 1 December 2017) and all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for drug-susceptible TB (from 1 January 1990 to search date, 20 February 2018). Included articles reported on patients receiving effective treatment for culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary TB. The outcome of interest was sputum bacteriological conversion: the proportion of patients having converted by a defined time point or a summary measure of time to conversion, assessed by smear or culture. Any study design with 10 or more particpants was considered. Record sifting and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Random effects meta-analyses were performed. A narrative summary additionally describes the results of a systematic search for data evaluating infectiousness from humans to experimental animals (PubMed, all studies to 27 March 2018). Other evidence on duration of infectiousness-including studies reporting on cough dynamics, human tuberculin skin test conversion, or early bactericidal activity of TB treatments-was outside the scope of this review. The literature search was repeated on 22 November 2020, at the request of the editors, to identify studies published after the previous censor date. Four small studies reporting 3 different outcome measures were identified, which included no data that would alter the findings of the review; they are not included in the meta-analyses. Of 5,290 identified records, 44 were included. Twenty-seven (61%) were RCTs and 17 (39%) were cohort studies. Thirteen studies (30%) reported data from Africa, 12 (27%) from Asia, 6 (14%) from South America, 5 (11%) from North America, and 4 (9%) from Europe. Four studies reported data from multiple continents. Summary estimates suggested smear conversion in 9% of patients at 2 weeks (95% CI 3%-24%, 1 single study [N = 1]), and 82% of patients at 2 months of treatment (95% CI 78%-86%, N = 10). Among baseline smear-positive patients, solid culture conversion occurred by 2 weeks in 5% (95% CI 0%-14%, N = 2), increasing to 88% at 2 months (95% CI 84%-92%, N = 20). At equivalent time points, liquid culture conversion was achieved in 3% (95% CI 1%-16%, N = 1) and 59% (95% CI 47%-70%, N = 8). Significant heterogeneity was observed. Further interrogation of the data to explain this heterogeneity was limited by the lack of disaggregation of results, including by factors such as HIV status, baseline smear status, and the presence or absence of lung cavitation. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review found that most patients remained culture positive at 2 weeks of TB treatment, challenging the view that individuals are not infectious after this interval. Culture positivity is, however, only 1 component of infectiousness, with reduced cough frequency and aerosol generation after TB treatment initiation likely to also be important. Studies that integrate our findings with data on cough dynamics could provide a more complete perspective on potential transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by individuals on treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 85226.

Higher loss of livelihood and impoverishment in households affected by tuberculosis compared to non-tuberculosis affected households in Zimbabwe: A cross-sectional study.

Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects poor people, leading to income and non-income losses. Measures of socioeconomic impact of TB, e.g. impoverishment and patient costs are inadequate to capture non-income losses. We applied impoverishment and a multidimensional measure on TB and non-TB affected households in Zimbabwe. We conducted a cross-sectional study in 270 households: 90 non-TB; 90 drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB), 90 drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). Household data included ownership of assets, number of household members, income and indicators on five capital assets: financial, human, social, natural and physical. Households with incomes per capita below US$1.90/day were considered impoverished. We used principal component analysis on five capital asset indicators to create a binary outcome variable indicating loss of livelihood. Log-binomial regression was used to determine associations between loss of livelihood and type of household. TB-affected households were more likely to report episodes of TB and household members requiring care than non-TB households. The proportions of impoverished households were 81% (non-TB), 88% (DS-TB) and 94% (DR-TB) by the time of interview. Overall, 56% (152/270) of households sold assets: 44% (40/90) non-TB, 58% (52/90) DS-TB and 67% (60/90) DR-TB. Children's education was affected in 33% (55/168) of TB-affected compared to 14% (12/88) non-TB households. Overall, 133 (50%) households experienced loss of livelihood, with TB-affected households almost twice as likely to experience loss of livelihood; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR = 1.78 [95%CI:1.09-2.89]). The effect of TB on livelihood was most pronounced in poorest households (aPR = 2.61, [95%CI:1.47-4.61]). TB-affected households experienced greater socioeconomic losses compared to non-TB households. Multisectoral social protection is crucial to mitigate impacts of TB and other shocks, especially targeting poorest households.

Beyond tuberculosis: a person-centred and rights-based approach to screening for household contacts.

Households affected by tuberculosis have syndemic vulnerability, reflecting a concentration of and interactions between multiple biomedical, psychosocial, and structural determinants of health. Traditional approaches to tuberculosis screening do not address pre-existing risks, such as undernutrition and other chronic conditions, or the indirect effects of tuberculosis, such as loss of livelihood. These pre-existing risks and consequences not only perpetuate the global tuberculosis epidemic but, for those affected, lead to poor health and deepen poverty. We propose reimagining tuberculosis screening as an opportunity to deliver a contextually relevant package of services that address the needs of households affected by tuberculosis. This approach puts people and their rights at the centre of efforts to end tuberculosis, and has equity at the core. This approach could support progress towards universal health coverage, benefiting communities and health systems. Leadership, flexibility in funding allocation, and innovative care models will be required to realise this approach at scale.

Blood RNA signatures outperform CRP triage of tuberculosis lymphadenitis and pericarditis.

Background: Limited data are available on the diagnostic accuracy of blood RNA biomarker signatures for extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). We addressed this question among people investigated for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, in Cape Town, South Africa. Methods: We enrolled 440 consecutive adults referred to a hospital for invasive sampling for presumptive TB lymphadenitis (n=300) or presumptive TB pericarditis (n=140). Samples from the site of disease underwent culture and/or molecular testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (Mtb). Discrimination of patients with and without TB defined by microbiology or cytology reference standards was evaluated using seven previously reported blood RNA signatures by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and sensitivity/specificity at predefined thresholds, benchmarked against blood C-reactive protein (CRP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) target product profile (TPP) for a TB triage test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the best performing blood RNA signature and CRP. Results: Data from 374 patients for whom results were available from at least one microbiological test from the site of disease, and blood CRP and RNA measurements, were included. Using microbiological results as the reference standard in the primary analysis (N=204 with TB), performance was similar across lymphadenitis and pericarditis patients. In the pooled analysis of both cohorts, all RNA signatures had comparable discrimination with AUROC point estimates ranging 0.77-0.82, superior to that of CRP (0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.67). The best performing signature (Roe3) achieved an AUROC of 0.82 (0.77-0.86). At a predefined threshold of 2 standard deviations (Z2) above the mean of a healthy reference control group, this signature achieved 78% (72-83%) sensitivity and 69% (62-75%) specificity. In this setting, DCA revealed that Roe3 offered greater net benefit than other approaches for services aiming to reduce the number needed to investigate with confirmatory testing to <4 to identify each case of TB. Interpretation: RNA biomarkers show better accuracy and clinical utility than CRP to trigger confirmatory TB testing in patients with TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, but still fall short of the WHO TPP for TB triage tests. Funding: South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London. Research in context: Evidence before this study: Blood RNA biomarker signatures and CRP measurements have emerged as potential triage tests for TB, but evidence is mostly limited to their performance in pulmonary TB. Microbiological diagnosis of extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) is made challenging by the need for invasive sampling to obtain tissue from the site of disease. This is compounded by lower sensitivity of confirmatory molecular tests for EPTB compared to their performance in pulmonary disease. We performed a systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies of blood RNA biomarkers or CRP measurements for EPTB, which could mitigate the need for site-of-disease sampling for the diagnosis of TB. We searched PubMed up to 1 st August 2023, using the following criteria: "extrapulmonary [title/abstract] AND tuberculosis [title/abstract] AND biomarker [title/abstract]". Although extrapulmonary TB was included in several studies, none focused specifically on EPTB or included an adequate number of EPTB cases to provide precise estimates of test accuracy. Added value of this study: To the best of our knowledge, we report the first diagnostic accuracy study of blood RNA biomarkers and CRP for TB among people with EPTB syndromes. We examined the performance of seven previously identified blood RNA biomarkers as triage tests for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis compared to a microbiology reference standard among people referred to hospital for invasive sampling in a high TB and HIV prevalence setting. Multiple blood RNA biomarkers showed comparable diagnostic accuracy to that previously reported for pulmonary TB in both EPTB disease cohorts, irrespective of HIV status. All seven blood RNA biomarkers showed superior diagnostic accuracy to CRP for both lymphadenitis and pericarditis, but failed to meet the combined >90% sensitivity and >70% specificity recommended for a blood-based diagnostic triage test by WHO. Nonetheless, in decision curve analysis, an approach of using the best performing blood RNA biomarker to trigger confirmatory microbiological testing showed superior clinical utility in clinical services seeking to reduce the number needed to test (using invasive confirmatory testing) to less than 4 for each EPTB case detected. If acceptable to undertake invasive testing in more than 4 people for each true case detected, then a test-all approach will provide greater net benefit in this TB/HIV hyperendemic setting.Implications of all the available evidence: Blood RNA biomarkers show some potential as diagnostic triage tests for TB lymphadenitis and TB pericarditis, but do not provide the level of accuracy for blood-based triage tests recommended by WHO for community-based tests. CRP has inferior diagnostic accuracy to blood RNA biomarkers and cannot be recommended for diagnostic triage among people with EPTB syndromes referred for invasive sampling.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV before antiretroviral therapy initiation: a diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis remains a major threat for people living with HIV. Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for tuberculosis diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) tuberculosis screening. METHODS: We enrolled consecutive adults (age ≥18 years) referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA signatures (one single gene biomarker [BATF2] and six multigene biomarkers) for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity and specificity at prespecified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed by calculating net benefit in decision curve analysis. We compared performance with C-reactive protein (CRP; threshold ≥5 mg/L), WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS), and the WHO target product profile for tuberculosis triage tests. FINDINGS: A total of 707 people living with HIV (407 [58%] female and 300 [42%] male) were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells per mm3 (IQR 184-486). Of 676 participants with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The seven RNA signatures were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0·42-0·93) and discriminated tuberculosis culture positivity with similar AUROCs (0·73-0·80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among participants with negative W4SS (AUROCs 0·56-0·65) compared with positive (AUROCs 0·75-0·84). The RNA biomarker with the highest AUROC point estimate was a four-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0·80, 95% CI 0·75-0·86), with sensitivity 83% (95% CI 74-90) and specificity 59% (55-63) at the Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5 mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 80% (70-87), specificity of 70% (66-74), and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone. INTERPRETATION: RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing for people living with HIV before ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches might be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support tuberculosis screening before ART initiation. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2, National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Royal College of Physicians London.

Evaluation of a comprehensive health check offered to frontline health workers in Zimbabwe.

Health workers are essential for a functioning healthcare system, and their own health is often not addressed. During the COVID-19 pandemic health workers were at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection whilst coping with increased healthcare demand. Here we report the development, implementation, and uptake of an integrated health check combining SARS-CoV-2 testing with screening for other communicable and non-communicable diseases for health workers in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Health checks were offered to health workers in public and private health facilities from July 2020 to June 2022. Data on the number of health workers accessing the service and yield of screening was collected. Workshops and in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the perceptions and experiences of clients and service providers. 6598 health workers across 48 health facilities accessed the service. Among those reached, 5215 (79%) were women, the median age was 37 (IQR: 29-44) years and the largest proportion were nurses (n = 2092, 32%). 149 (2.3%) healthcare workers tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Uptake of screening services was almost 100% for all screened conditions except HIV. The most common conditions detected through screening were elevated blood pressure (n = 1249; 19%), elevated HbA1c (n = 428; 7.7%) and common mental disorder (n = 645; 9.8%). Process evaluation showed high acceptability of the service. Key enablers for health workers accessing the service included free and comprehensive service provision, and availability of reliable point-of-care screening methods. Implementation of a comprehensive health check for health workers was feasible, acceptable, and effective, even during a pandemic. Conventional occupational health programmes focus on infectious diseases. In a society where even health workers cannot afford health care, free comprehensive occupational health services may address unmet needs in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for chronic non-communicable conditions.

Higher loss of livelihood and impoverishment in households affected by tuberculosis compared to non-tuberculosis affected households in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects poor people, leading to income and non-income losses. Measures of socioeconomic impact of TB, e.g. impoverishment and patient costs are inadequate to capture non-income losses. We applied impoverishment and a multidimensional measure on TB and non-TB affected households in Zimbabwe. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in 270 households: 90 non-TB; 90 drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB), 90 drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). Household data included ownership of assets, number of household members, income and indicators on five capital assets: financial, human, social, natural and physical. We determined proportions of impoverished households for periods 12 months prior and at the time of the interview. Households with incomes below US$1.90/day were considered to be impoverished. We used principal component analysis on five capital asset indicators to create a binary outcome variable indicating loss of livelihood. Log-binomial regression was used to determine associations between loss of livelihood and type of household. Results: TB-affected households reported higher previous episodes of TB and household members requiring care than non-TB households. Households that were impoverished 12 months prior to the study were: 21 non-TB (23%); 40 DS-TB (45%); 37 DR-TB (41%). The proportions increased to 81%, 88% and 94%, respectively by the time of interview. Overall, 56% (152/270) of households sold assets: 44% (40/90) non-TB, 58% (52/90) DS-TB and 67% (60/90) DR-TB. Children's education was affected in 31% (56/180) of TB-affected compared to 13% (12/90) non-TB households. Overall, 133(50%) households experienced loss of livelihood, with TB-affected households twice as likely to experience loss of livelihood; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR=2.02 (95%CI:1.35-3.03)). The effect of TB on livelihood was most pronounced in poorest households (aPR=2.64, (95%CI:1.29-5.41)). Conclusions: TB-affected households experienced greater socioeconomic losses compared to non-TB households. Multidimensional measures of TB are crucial to inform multisectoral approaches to mitigate impacts of TB and other shocks.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV prior to anti-retroviral therapy initiation: A diagnostic accuracy study.

Background: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat for people living with HIV (PLHIV). Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for TB diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) TB screening. Methods: We enrolled consecutive adults referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene-panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA biomarkers for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity/specificity at pre-specified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. We compared performance to CRP (threshold ≥5mg/L), World Health Organisation (WHO) four-symptom screen (W4SS) and the WHO target product profile for TB triage tests. Results: A total of 707 PLHIV were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells/mm3. Of 676 with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed TB. The seven RNA biomarkers were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0.42-0.93) and discriminated TB culture-positivity with similar AUROCs (0.73-0.80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among W4SS-negative (AUROCs 0.56-0.65) compared to W4SS-positive participants (AUROCs 0.75-0.84). The RNA biomarker with highest AUROC point estimate was a 4-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.86), with sensitivity 0.83 (0.74-0.90) and specificity 0.59 (0.55-0.63) at Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 0.80 (0.70-0.87), specificity of 0.70 (0.66-0.74) and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone. Interpretation: RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing for PLHIV prior to ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP, and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches may be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support TB screening pre-ART initiation. Funding: South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London.

Clinical utility of C-reactive protein-based triage for presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis in South African adults.

BACKGROUND: Identification of an accurate, low-cost triage test for pulmonary TB among people presenting to healthcare facilities is an urgent global research priority. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) for TB triage among symptomatic adult outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adults reporting at least one (for people with HIV) or two (for people without HIV) symptoms of cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss at two TB clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided sputum for culture and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of CRP (measured using a laboratory-based assay) against a TB-culture reference standard as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and sensitivity and specificity at pre-specified thresholds. We assessed clinical utility using decision curve analysis and benchmarked against WHO recommendations. RESULTS: Of 932 included individuals, 255 (27%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary TB and 389 (42%) were living with HIV. CRP demonstrated an AUROC of 0·80 (95% confidence interval 0·77-0·83), with sensitivity 93% (89-95%) and specificity 54% (50-58%) using a primary cut-off of ≥10 mg/L. Performance was similar among people with HIV to those without. In decision curve analysis, CRP-based triage offered greater clinical utility than confirmatory testing for all up to a number willing to test threshold of 20 confirmatory tests per true positive pulmonary TB case diagnosed (threshold probability 5%). If it is possible to perform more confirmatory tests than this, a 'confirmatory test for all' strategy performed better. CONCLUSIONS: CRP achieved the WHO-defined sensitivity, but not specificity, targets for a triage test for pulmonary TB and showed evidence of clinical utility among symptomatic outpatients, irrespective of HIV status. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Royal College of Physicians.

Clinical utility of WHO-recommended screening tools and development and validation of novel clinical prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis screening among outpatients living with HIV: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that outpatient people living with HIV (PLHIV) undergo tuberculosis screening with the WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS) or C-reactive protein (CRP) (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) followed by confirmatory testing if screen positive. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to determine the performance of WHO-recommended screening tools and two newly developed clinical prediction models (CPMs). METHODS: Following a systematic review, we identified studies that recruited adult outpatient PLHIV irrespective of tuberculosis signs and symptoms or with a positive W4SS, evaluated CRP and collected sputum for culture. We used logistic regression to develop an extended CPM (which included CRP and other predictors) and a CRP-only CPM. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate performance. RESULTS: We pooled data from eight cohorts (n=4315 participants). The extended CPM had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.81); the CRP-only CPM had similar discrimination. The C-statistics for WHO-recommended tools were lower. Both CPMs had equivalent or higher net benefit compared with the WHO-recommended tools. Compared with both CPMs, CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) had equivalent net benefit across a clinically useful range of threshold probabilities, while the W4SS had a lower net benefit. The W4SS would capture 91% of tuberculosis cases and require confirmatory testing for 78% of participants. CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off), the extended CPM (4.2% threshold) and the CRP-only CPM (3.6% threshold) would capture similar percentages of cases but reduce confirmatory tests required by 24, 27 and 36%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CRP sets the standard for tuberculosis screening among outpatient PLHIV. The choice between using CRP at 5 mg·L-1 cut-off or in a CPM depends on available resources.

Risk Factors for Hospitalization or Death Among Adults With Advanced HIV at Enrollment for Care in South Africa: A Secondary Analysis of the TB Fast Track Trial.

Background: Individuals with advanced HIV experience high mortality, especially before and during the first months of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to identify factors, measurable in routine, primary health clinic-based services, associated with the greatest risk of poor outcome. Methods: We included all individuals enrolled in the standard-of-care arm of a cluster-randomized trial (TB Fast Track); adults attending participating health clinics with CD4 ≤150 cells/µL and no recent ART were eligible. Associations between baseline exposures and a composite outcome (hospitalization/death) over 6 months were estimated using multivariable Cox regression. Results: Among 1515 individuals (12 clinics), 56% were female, the median age was 36 years, and the median CD4 count was 70 cells/µL. Within 6 months, 89% started ART. The overall rate of hospitalization/death was 32.5 per 100 person-years (218 outcomes/671 person-years). Lower baseline CD4 count (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.27 for <50 vs 100-150 cells/µL; 95% CI, 1.57-3.27), lower body mass index (aHR, 2.13 for BMI <17 vs ≥25 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1.31-3.45), presence of tuberculosis-related symptoms (aHR, 1.87 for 3-4 symptoms vs none; 95% CI, 1.20-2.93), detectable urine lipoarabinomannan (aHR, 1.97 for 1+ positivity vs negative; 95% CI, 1.37-2.83), and anemia (aHR, 4.42 for severe anemia [hemoglobin <8 g/dL] vs none; 95% CI, CI 2.38-8.21) were strong independent risk factors for hospitalization/death. Conclusions: Simple measures that can be routinely assessed in primary health care in resource-limited settings identify individuals with advanced HIV at high risk of poor outcomes; these may guide targeted interventions to improve outcomes.

Early risk assessment in paediatric and adult household contacts of confirmed tuberculosis cases by novel diagnostic tests (ERASE-TB): protocol for a prospective, non-interventional, longitudinal, multicountry cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: The WHO End-TB Strategy calls for the development of novel diagnostics to detect tuberculosis (TB) earlier and more accurately. Better diagnostics, together with tools to predict disease progression, are critical for achieving WHO End-TB targets. The Early Risk Assessment in TB Contacts by new diagnoStic tEsts (ERASE-TB) study aims to evaluate novel diagnostics and testing algorithms for early TB diagnosis and accurate prediction of disease progression among household contacts (HHCs) exposed to confirmed index cases in Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A total of 2100 HHCs (aged ≥10 years) of adults with microbiologically-confirmed pulmonary TB will be recruited and followed up at 6-month intervals for 18-24 months. At each time point, a WHO symptom screen and digital chest radiograph (dCXR) will be performed, and blood and urine samples will be collected. Individuals screening positive (WHO symptom screen or dCXR) will be requested to provide sputum for Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra. At baseline, HHCs will also be screened for HIV, diabetes (HbA1c), chronic lung disease (spirometry), hypertension and anaemia. Study outcomes will be coprevalent TB (diagnosed at enrolment), incident TB (diagnosed during follow-up) or no TB at completion of follow-up. Novel diagnostics will be validated using fresh and biobanked samples with a nested case-control design. Cases are defined as HHCs diagnosed with TB (for early diagnosis) or with incident TB (for prediction of progression) and will be matched by age, sex and country to HHCs who remain healthy (controls). Statistical analyses will include assessment of diagnostic accuracy by constructing receiver operating curves and calculation of sensitivity and specificity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: ERASE-TB has been approved by regulatory and ethical committees in each African country and by each partner organisation. Consent, with additional assent for participants <18 years, is voluntary. Attestation by impartial witnesses is sought in case of illiteracy. Confidentiality of participants is being maintained throughout. Study findings will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed international journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04781257.Cite Now.

Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings.

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.

The histone deacetylase inhibitor, romidepsin, as a potential treatment for pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive disease that usually affects elderly people. It has a poor prognosis and there are limited therapies. Since epigenetic alterations are associated with IPF, histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors offer a novel therapeutic strategy to address the unmet medical need. This study investigated the potential of romidepsin, an FDA-approved HDAC inhibitor, as an anti-fibrotic treatment and evaluated biomarkers of target engagement that may have utility in future clinical trials. The anti-fibrotic effects of romidepsin were evaluated both in vitro and in vivo together with any harmful effect on alveolar type II cells (ATII). Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from IPF or control donors was analyzed for the presence of lysyl oxidase (LOX). In parallel with an increase in histone acetylation, romidepsin potently inhibited fibroblast proliferation, myofibroblast differentiation and LOX expression. ATII cell numbers and their lamellar bodies were unaffected. In vivo, romidepsin inhibited bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in association with suppression of LOX expression. LOX was significantly elevated in BALF of IPF patients compared to controls. These data show the anti-fibrotic effects of romidepsin, supporting its potential use as novel treatment for IPF with LOX as a companion biomarker for evaluation of early on-target effects.